Date: Saturday, October 19th
Game Time: 9:00 pm ET... seriously? That's too late folks. This ain't PAC-12
Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Network: ESPN
View attachment 231651
Tennessee hits the road and travels to the magical land of Tuscaloosa this week following their hard fought victory over Mississippi State. While a victory over Mississippi State rarely moves the needle in the quest to rise to prominence, there is no understating what it meant to this team and fan base at that time and place. Unfortunately, Vol fans will probably need to wait a bit longer to see if that performance translates into continued progress as this week Tennessee faces the great equalizer... Bama, who tends to make any non-top 10 team look equally inept. If South Carolina can beat Georgia, Tennessee can beat Alabama, but don't get your cigars out of the box yet. It's going to require wizardry that goes far beyond what we could statistically expect from these two teams. I'll tell you what needs to happen, but that doesn't mean there is a reasonable probablity we can actually do it. In fact...
Unfortunately, we rarely think rationally around these parts, and the same fans who were ready to hang Pruitt from the Henley Street bridge a month ago now think...
Keys to Victory:
1. Shut down the short / intermediate passing game: Alabama used to take a massive OL and physically destroy whatever was in front of them while letting their Heisman winning RB peel off first down after first down. How they had the foresight to take that championship winning formula and morph into a destructive passing attack is an interesting thought process, but the fact is, Alabama now has a complex offensive strategy that I will cover in great detail below:
A. Get the best athlete on the field and line him up at WR.
B. Have that fella run a few yards and tear across the middle like a scalded banshee.
C. Have an exceptional QB toss him the ball.
D. Jog down to catch up and celebrate.
Jerry Jeudy, Devonta Smith, Henry Ruggs, and Jaylen Waddle have combined for 113 receptions, 1,813 receiving yards, and 21 touchdowns. In fact, Smith and Jeudy have 736 yards after the catch. To put that in perspective, Tennessee's top 4 WR's (Jennings, Callaway, Palmer, Byrd) have 747 receiving yards... total... not YAC. Smith will miss the first half of the Tennessee game giving the briefest of opportunities for the improving Vol defense to find a way to disrupt the passing game and force them away from a far too easy offensive formula. Tua has not been as sharp this year with longer passes as he was last year, but forcing him into a longer pass attempt makes a harder completion than a 5 yard drag that goes for 70 yards.
2. Establish the Run: Remember when Bama had a top rushing defense? What? You thought they still did? They are no slouch, but 47th nationally in rushing yards per game is not top shelf. 7... count them SEVEN SEC teams are ranked higher. It's not just based on more opportunities from a quick scoring offense either. They give up 3.77 yards per carry. Truth be told... this run defense is average, if you can believe it. The Vols need to find some success in the running game and hope the improving OL is ready to face the massive Alabama DL and open up some big plays. There hasn't been many big plays from Ty Chandler this season, so it's about that time. Tim Jordan will need to continue to grind and hopefully break off enough runs to keep the chains moving. If the running game is no threat, the RPO will not be legit and Maurer / QB's will struggle to make the passing game work.
3. Turnovers: Tennessee needs to make the breaks and seize on the opportunities. South Carolina beat Georgia because Georgia could not stop turning the ball over, including a pick 6. Unfortunately, Bama has only lost 2 fumbles and 2 INT's this season. Maybe it's statistically time for a few. Tennessee will need every single one and must play mistake free football on offense.
4. Embrace the Suck: When I coach someone for a physique goal, I like to encourage them to "embrace the suck." The truth is, this is about to be a difficult process. We will do the best we can, but you have to be prepared to do the hard work on this and stop looking for a way out to make it easier because compromise is going to make it worse. Embrace the suck. Jauan Jennings has a quote this week to that effect, "We get to go play the No. 1 team in the country in their own stadium at night. If you can't get excited about that, like, why are you doing this?" Heck yes. Far from the mentality of "hide all the children so we can hopefully escape intact" that some fans are showing, Jennings sees the challenge and instead of being intimidated sees the opportunity to compete. Everything will be against the Vols this Saturday. They have no edge... anywhere. They have no reason to be in this game. Embrace the suck. Go out and do the work and see where you measure up.
Prediction:
I think Tennessee comes out and gives everything they've got on this. This is a national stage and an opportunity to measure themselves against the best and show what they've got. Will it be enough? It's highly unlikely.
But in a similar way to the Georgia game, it will be a game that should not be measured by the final score, but within the context of the rebuild and whether progress has been made or not. This week, we see what kind of fight the team has. This may shock you a bit, but I think the Vols keep this closer than expected, though they never really threaten.
TN 24
Bama 38