nicksjuzunk
Lurking
- Joined
- May 29, 2009
- Messages
- 35,558
- Likes
- 112,765
The Vols are rolling. In spite of LSU fans thumping their chest about their environment, the Tennessee fans were inexplicably more vocal throughout the game, with Rocky Top ringing through the stadium and the traveling contingency eventually took over the house as disappointed Tiger fans headed out mid-third quarter to drown their sorrows in corn dogs. This week is no small task. In fact, it is the largest of all CFB tasks... Alabama with a strong seasoning of rivalry on top. Are you ready?
Keys to Victory:
1. Recovery: The biggest variable in this contest comes down to a simple question... "Can Bryce Young play, and play at his pre-injury level?" To me, the answer to this question is a 10 point difference in a game which appears to be on line for a tight margin of victory/defeat. Young rested this past week and according to some, should be ready for Tennessee, but nothing is certain, and it may be a bit of misdirection from Alabama. The other big question mark regards Tennessee wide receiver Cedric Tillman. The target has been to have him back by Bama. However, I don't think he will be effective if he plays and will be better served continuing to recover. The training staff makes more dollar bills than I, so expect them to make the call. Tillman's presence, or lack thereof is a 4 point swing, IMO. So there are 14 points that are dependent on who can and cannot play. Each team would love to claim those 14 points.
2. Bench Brooks: Tennessee's explosive offense has been a spectacle this year. Punter Paxton Brooks has only punted 11 times. That's 2.2 per game! Alabama punter James Burnip has punted 18 times, for a 3.0 per game average, for context. When both teams can score like wild monkeys (AL 44.3, TN 46.8), keeping your punter on the sideline will be key in keeping points high.
3. Turnover Turn on: It's simple... Tennessee is +1.0 in turnover margin. Alabama is -.83. If that stat holds up and the Vols find themselves at +2 in turnovers, that's swell.
4. Redder Zone: Tennessee has scored 100% of the time in the red zone this year, with 78% of those scores being touchdowns. Alabama has scored only 85% of the time, but has a higher TD ratio at 89%, with one more visit to the redzone. What does that mean? Tennessee has settled for more FG's in the redzone. Finding the edge in maximizing scoring opportunities should be huge. Tennessee will need to finish drives and tighten up when Bama gets in the redzone. Holding them to field goal attempts is not automatic either, with Bama FB kicker Will Reichard is statistically the best kicker in Bama history but he's only 70% on the year, going 1/4 over the last two weeks. Vol fans will hope that he is in his own head and that we can force more of those 7 point touchdowns into 3 point attempts. Redzone scoring will be huge.
5. A Tale of Two Secondaries: Tennessee and Alabama match-up surprisingly similarly in multiple categories, but there is a glaring difference... passing yards allowed. Tennessee nearly doubles Alabama's 166 yards allowed by giving up 307 yards per game. This pukes me. The Vols have not faced a secondary this talented, nor a passing attack this talented. Both are going to be maxed out, and I'm not sure if we can match-up if Bryce Young is throwing the ball. Throwing for over 400 is almost a given if he is healthy. On the other side, Tennessee wide receivers have done an excellent job and Hooker has taken care of the ball. Can they continue to perform against one of the best secondaries in the nation?
6. 40 or Bust: This game will see over 75 points if Tennessee is going to win. An interesting dive into the scoring offense of Alabama's "better" opponents shows that they generally hold pretty close to their scoring average vs. the Crimson Tide. This is the case with A&M and Arkansas. Texas lost their QB early which totally changed the trajectory of that game... and they still should have won. Utah State and UL Monroe are tied for 112 in scoring offense, so there is not much to see there and you should never expect Vandy to do anything more than soil their britches against Bama. Tennessee averages 46.8. They will need them, because Bama will not be below 40 if Young plays.
Prediction:
Tennessee fans were electric for the Florida game. They will surpass that energy to begin the game, but the Vols will need to establish a lead or be within a score to keep the fans from losing hope. We've been through a lot, and it's easy to see things going the way they usually go... especially in the cursed 3:30 CBS time slot. This has the potential to be the biggest Tennessee victory since... shoot... maybe Florida 2001. There is no doubt Tennessee CAN win this game, but it is my opinion that they still need things to go their way. Alabama has not been flawless and if they make mistakes and Tennessee doesn't, they will be positioned well. All eyes will be on Knoxville this weekend and Tennessee could announce "We're back" without it being premature. It would absolutely be a program changing statement of a game. Right now, it's too early to predict. So much of this depends on who lines up at QB for Bama and whether Tillman looks 100%. I'm taking the conservative way out and deferring my prediction until we learn more about the status of Bryce Young and Tillman.
TN 41
Bama 37
Last edited:
