I found it.
How often does "trust the defense" work when you're trying to stop and upset the #1 team in the country?It was the right call
Supposed to get 9 yards with how “poorly their offense was playing” Yall making arguments against yourselfNot with how poorly their offense was playing. Even if they got a 3 and out, they'd have to go all the way down the field in under 2 minutes. Their passing game was awful, I think the odds were better of going for it.
This is what I’m saying you can’t just go by raw stats. You have to take into account your team’s play in that moment. Kentucky had more of a chance to win by going there than by punting and playing defense.Not with how poorly their offense was playing. Even if they got a 3 and out, they'd have to go all the way down the field in under 2 minutes. Their passing game was awful, I think the odds were better of going for it.
If they had the mentality of going for it on 4th, that 3rd down call would have been different. You could tell they weren't in "were going for this" mindset.Supposed to get 9 yards with how “poorly their offense was playing” Yall making arguments against yourself
The important difference is getting 8 yards or more ONE time. That put them in FG range. If they punt, get good coverage, force a stop on defense then after all that they STILL have to get more than those 8 yards. There is no universe where it is actually a better decision in that spot. It could be the historically the accepted decision. But it's not going to result in the most wins in that exact spot. If you are the better team extend the game. If you are the inferior team then getting 8 yards ONE TIME is absolutely more doable than stringing together all the other things you need to do just to get back into the same position you were already in.Supposed to get 9 yards with how “poorly their offense was playing” Yall making arguments against yourself
Pretty much what I’m saying as well. Stoops should’ve shifted to that at that point. Good field position, some time left to make a drive, he should be in the mindset that this was their last possession and you’ve got four downs to make a new set of downs.If they had the mentality of going for it on 4th, that 3rd down call would have been different. You could tell they weren't in "were going for this" mindset.
And yes, 4th and 8 is still higher odds than them marching all the way down the field in under 2 minutes. But they would have gotten a few guaranteed yards on 3rd down if they had the mentality of going for it on 4th.