Recruiting Forum: Official Outback Bowl Pre-Game/Game Thread

#1
nicksjuzunk

nicksjuzunk

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#1
The Vols wrap up an up and down season in Tampa against the Northwestern Wildcats on New Year's Day. After missed opportunities, blow leads, injuries, and an improbable comeback against UGA, Tennessee looks to end their season on a high note against a higher ranked, yet arguably weaker Northwestern team. Looking at Tennessee's schedule, I think this may be the 7th strongest team we have played this season, but let's see how it plays out on the field.

Northwestern has an impressive record (10-2) with a quality win (Standford) and losses against two ranked teams (Michigan and Iowa). However, the manner in which they lost those games (38-10, 40-10) is not quite in the same ball park as Tennessee having not lost a game by more than 7 (Oklahoma... in overtime).

Keys to Victory:

1. Stop the ground game: Northwestern has an offense built around a smaller running back (5'11" 185) Justin Jackson. He had a ton of yards... as well as attempts(3rd in FBS) and averages about what Jalen Hurd does per carry, at 4.5. In their two losses, he only had a total of 55 yards, but playing from way behind will do that to a RB's stats. If Tennessee can keep Jackson wrapped up, that's pretty much all she wrote, because...

2. No air: (Disclaimer: No Joshua Dobbs's were injured in this analysis. Any comparison is for the entertainment of the reader only. Any apparent slight of Joshua Dobbs is completely unintended.)

Northwestern cannot pass the football. QB Clayton Thorson is a very poor man's Dobbs. He's thrown for 2/3 of the yards Dobbs has this season. Has a lower completion %, less yards per attempt, half the touchdowns, more interceptions, lower QBR, and half the rushing yards. He's not going to beat you. If he attempts to throw the football, Tennessee is going to eat.

3. Run DHK: Northwestern has a talented run stopping defense, 14th nationally. Linebacker Anthony Walker gets in on a lot of tackles, and has a knack for getting to scrambling quarterbacks as well. A steady dose of Dobbs, Hurd & Kamara will test their resolve. Look for the Vols to lean heavily on the ground game.

4. Find some passing offense: As good as Northwestern is in run defense, they also rank 26th nationally in pass defense. Passing has obviously not been the strength of the Tennessee offense this year, but they need to find enough yards in the air to keep the defense honest. Otherwise, NW will load the box and it's going to be a rough day.

Prediction: This game is close on paper, but the biggest differences are in how each team has fared against their stronger opponents, and the ability to actually put points on the board. Tennessee averages 90 more yards per game and 34.3 points per game vs. NW 20.7. Combine this with TN strength of schedule being 12th vs NW 49th, they have simply outperformed NW in most relevant statistics, against a much harder schedule.

TN 31
NW 10
 
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#3
#3
45-17 good guys. Team speed is the difference in this game. With Northwestern defense trying to keep Hurd and Dobbs in check AK goes crazy on the outside like in the Candy game.
 
#4
#4
tumblr_ndf9jkhhrB1qdv0m5o1_400.gif
 
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#7
#7
My first bowl game. I so hope it's a blowout. I know it won't be an offensive, shootout-type game, so I'm afraid it could end up being all defense or all Tennessee. Personally, I see us having a monster first half and putting up about 35 to their 7, then we will attempt to sit on it, plus let some guys play, and the final will be something like 42 or 45 to 28. A lot like the Iowa game last year.

Bigger question for me is, "If we win BIG, (3+ scores), where are we ranked after upsetting the #13 team in the nation. Technically, it's not an upset by the #'s and $$$ but being that we are #23 and they are #13, I'm still calling it as such.

I think, depending on wins and losses in other bowls, we end up around 15th, and start the 2016 season as a top 10 team.
 
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#10
#10
I think we get off to a good starter, as we tend to do, and then stay in control the rest of the way. I see a 31-13 type score, Vols.
 
#14
#14
NU will run an eight man front so our OL must play physical and game plan the 'O"for each half. See okla. fla, and arky.
 
#15
#15
If NU goes 8 in the box I expect more from Pearson, Smith, Malone and Wolf in this one to open up the run game. Regardless, they will have to play a lot of zone in the secondary. If they play 7 or even nickel against our the spread - Hurd, Kamara and Dobbs will be having a lot of fun on the ground. Berry, Sutton, or Kamara will get a return for a TD. NU may get lucky in mop up time to score 3 TD's for the game.

45-20 Vols.
 
#19
#19
I think TN struggles in the Red Zone and kicks FGs instead of TDs, which keeps the game closer than it should be. Bigger difference in stats than on the scoreboard.
Vols 23 - NU 10
 
#20
#20
I wonder if we'll see any "trick plays", maybe another pass from Jennings to Dobbs.
 
#21
#21
a vol n tears said:
I think TN struggles in the Red Zone and kicks FGs instead of TDs, which keeps the game closer than it should be. Bigger difference in stats than on the scoreboard.
Vols 23 - NU 10
Click to expand...

This is pretty much my thinking as well. I think k we'll move the ball pretty well between the 20s, but the shorter the field gets the less our athletic advantage counts for and the more NU's discipline becomes a factor.
 
#23
#23
I think we will have time to develop a few more wrinkles in the passing game that NU will not have prepared for. I think we win somewhat big, but not huge. 31-17 Vols.
 
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