Retail sales up .8 % versus estimates of .2%

[VolsNSkinsFan]

Professionals?? This data came from the Census Dept

 

[utvolpj]

I think it reasonable to believe that it might have occurred to the professionals who do these estimates for a living to have included school-related sales in their figuring.

you mean like the same professionals that manipulate the numbers to make unemployment numbers appear better? The same ones that revise their numbers down the following month after pumping out incorrect (misleading) numbers? It's not a simple mathematical formula like you're suggesting

 

[volfan6782]

I think it reasonable to believe that it might have occurred to the professionals who do these estimates for a living to have included school-related sales in their figuring.

In the words of Obama, you didn't calculate that.

 

[VolFan32]

Or they deliberately lowballed the estimate knowing that school shopping will help bump the figure to make sales look better.

This. And it's a shame that they do this.

 

[Gramps]

LG's normally a financial buffoon, but I'm not sure why we're discounting this news. It's clearly a seasonal blip and those aren't year over year numbers, but they did beat estimates.

Did BPV just agree with LG?

 

[myrobbins7]

Only measures stores that are open over the last year and fails to account for stores that have closed. Three months down is the trend.

 

[utvolpj]

Did BPV just agree with LG?

sort of but I didn't read it as complete agreement

 

[VolsNSkinsFan]

Mystery Of July Retail Sales "Beat" Solved: It Is All In The "Seasonal Adjustment" | ZeroHedge

with the July seasonal adjustment factor routinely subtracting a substantial amount from the NSA number, averaging at -$5.2 billion, in 2012, for the first time this decade, the seasonal adjustment not only did not subtract, but in fact added "value" to the NSA number, resulting in a seasonally adjusted number that was $1.9 billion higher than the NSA number at $403.9 billion.

So what would have happened if instead of arbitrarily deciding to add a seasonal contribution for the first time in a decade, the Census Bureau had used the last decade average factor of $5.2 billion (not adjusted for inflation, so the end number would be far greater)? Instead of rising by 0.8% Seasonally Adjusted retail sales would have declined from $400.7 billion to $395.5 billion, or a 1.3% decline.

And that is how data is fudged.

 

[hog88]

^^Dang facts always get in the way of a good LG rant.....

 

[GoBigOrangeUT]

I would love to see some actual good news. People on here love shooting down anything positive. So, just once, I want to see some irrefutable good news and I think some people's heads might just explode.

 

[utvolpj]

I would love to see some actual good news.

I think most would welcome that but the constantly manipulated numbers are a sure fire way to make everyone skeptical

 

[GoBigOrangeUT]

I think most would welcome that but the constantly manipulated numbers are a sure fire way to make everyone skeptical

Would it be fair to say all numbers are manipulated? You can make them say whatever you want them to say.

 

[VolsNSkinsFan]

I would love to see some actual good news. People on here love shooting down anything positive. So, just once, I want to see some irrefutable good news and I think some people's heads might just explode.

we won 104 medals. Yippie!

 

[utvolpj]

Would it be fair to say all numbers are manipulated? You can make them say whatever you want them to say.

of course they are. That's why getting to how the were calculated is almost more important than just the end result

it's why teachers made you show your work in math class

 

[Lexvol]

That settles it. The recovery is ON!

 

[kev20]

trying to figure out how retail sales = politics

 

[utvolpj]

trying to figure out how retail sales = politics

seriously?

 

[BigPapaVol]

trying to figure out how retail sales = politics

I think consumer sentiment matters and that's what people are trying to gauge here.

 

[volfan6782]

I think consumer sentiment matters and that's what people are trying to gauge here.

That and retail sales are part of the economy.

 

[lawgator1]

I think consumer sentiment matters and that's what people are trying to gauge here.

That and whether an increase in demand might signal emerging investment in production, shipping, and retailing of goods and services.


An imperfect measure to be sure, but it's just one more factoid to consider in the broader picture.

 

[BigPapaVol]

That and whether an increase in demand might signal emerging investment in production, shipping, and retailing of goods and services.


An imperfect measure to be sure, but it's just one more factoid to consider in the broader picture.

none of that has time to come to bear. If people think through all of that prior to voting, your hero has no prayer.

 

[BeecherVol]

That settles it. The recovery is ON!

Its been on the last 2 summers where have you been.

 

[lawgator1]

none of that has time to come to bear. If people think through all of that prior to voting, your hero has no prayer.

Overclaim much?

He's not my hero, by any means. But at least there is some truth-telling going on about how badly mangled our tax structure is at this point.

 

[utvolpj]

Overclaim much?

He's not my hero, by any means. But at least there is some truth-telling going on about how badly mangled our tax structure is at this point.

so is this thread still telling the truth?

 

[BigPapaVol]

Overclaim much?

He's not my hero, by any means. But at least there is some truth-telling going on about how badly mangled our tax structure is at this point.

don't be so dense all the time. Our tax receipts are still going to remain the same. Any attempt to attribute the problem to anything other than spending is delusion, idiocy, ignorance or all of the above.