Road to Hoover - 2018 Edition

#52
#52
matts42012 said:
Rpi is in low 60s now. Win both series and a game or two in Hoover and we got a chance.
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Interesting that D1 has it at 75. I thought that was up to date. Warren Nolan has it at 64 so I am sure that's it.

I'd say 1/50 shot then
 
#53
#53
BruinVol said:
Interesting that D1 has it at 75. I thought that was up to date. Warren Nolan has it at 64 so I am sure that's it.

I'd say 1/50 shot then
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But what would a sweep of Vandy get it too do you think? In the low 40’s?A sweep this weekend and I think they are on the bubble and winning 2 out of 3 at Mizzou and a win or two in Hoover gets them in.
 
#54
#54
Volsbaseballfan1 said:
But what would a sweep of Vandy get it too do you think? In the low 40’s?A sweep this weekend and I think they are on the bubble and winning 2 out of 3 at Mizzou and a win or two in Hoover gets them in.
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I'd have to look closer at the potenial field but without taking that time I doubt it matters. We just won't have enough overall wins and have too many rough losses
 
#55
#55
RPI would still probably be too high even if the Vols were able to get to 15 conference wins. A very strong SEC tournament showing would be their only chance IMO.
 
#56
#56
Volsbaseballfan1 said:
But what would a sweep of Vandy get it too do you think? In the low 40’s?A sweep this weekend and I think they are on the bubble and winning 2 out of 3 at Mizzou and a win or two in Hoover gets them in.
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Too many midweek losses along with the collapses against UF and LSU. The Vandy series is at home, so I don't believe they can move up that much with a sweep.

I don't know as much about how they pick the baseball teams, but the nonconference strength of schedule is bad as well. That seems to be a theme in the SEC with the strength of the conference, but I would think it hurts when being compared to other teams.
 
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#57
#57
Controlling our destiny with two weekends left is awesome. Of course it can change, but right now we don't need someone to get swept on the last weekend. And more importantly, we don't have to root for Vandy to win on the last day. I don't like rooting for Vandy.
 
#58
#58
Wilkerson mentioned we will have our first SEC home winning record since 2005. I expect us to make it as far as we did in '05. 😎
 
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#59
#59
for those wondering what the Hell RPI is and what it does and how its tabulated......

Warren Nolan, Rating Percentage Index (RPI) Live 2018 College Baseball - WarrenNolan.com

In its current formulation, the index comprises a team's winning percentage (25%), its opponents' winning percentage (50%), and the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents (25%). The opponents' winning percentage and the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents both comprise the strength of schedule (SOS). Thus, the SOS accounts for 75% of the RPI calculation and is 2/3 its opponents' winning percentage and 1/3 its opponents' opponents' winning percentages.


The formula used in NCAA baseball is the same as that used in basketball except for the adjustment of home and road records. Starting in 2013, college baseball RPI formula values each road victory as 1.3 instead of 1.0. Each home win is valued at 0.7 instead of 1.0. Conversely, each home loss counts 1.3 against a team’s RPI and each road loss counts 0.7 against a team’s RPI. Neutral-site games have a value of 1.0, but the committee is studying how to determine if a game should be considered a neutral-site contest. The adjustment is based on data showing that home teams win about 62 percent of the time in Division I baseball."[3] The change was made because of the discrepancy in the number of home games teams play. Some schools are able to play 35–40 of their 56 allowable games at home, while other teams, due to factors such as weather, may play only 20 home games.

This adjustment replaces the current system of bonuses or penalties that teams receive. Bonus points are awarded for beating top-75 non-conference opponents on the road and penalty points are given for losing to bottom-75 non-conference opponents at home. Bonuses and penalties are on a sliding scale, separated into groups of 25, with the top bonus for a road win against a top-25 team and the worst penalty for a home loss to a bottom-25 opponent.

and its not perfect by any means, this was last week......

More
Replying to @KendallRogers
LSU beats #4 Arkansas 2 out of 3 and moves up TWO spots? Cmon man
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More
Kendall Rogers Retweeted glen clark
RPI is fickle. I feel your pain. Hell, Iowa took two of three from Oklahoma State and dropped four spots over the past week.
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#61
#61
In 2016 both Alabama and Kentucky were 15-15 in the SEC and didn't make a Regional. Alabama had an RPI of 64 and Kentucky 69.

In 2015, Missouri had a 15-15 record and missed the Regionals however Auburn had a 13-17 SEC record and made a Regional. Missouri had a 56 RPI and Auburn had a 26 RPI.

Bottom line, RPI is weighed heavily, for good or bad.......








,
 
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#62
#62
The fact that it is first week of May and we are having these discussions is an indication of the positive things happening with this team and program. Love it!! GBO!!
 
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#63
#63
6-4-3 said:
The fact that it is first week of May and we are having these discussions is an indication of the positive things happening with this team and program. Love it!! GBO!!
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I said it about a month ago that TV should be coach of the year at the time and he still needs to be in that discussion
 
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#64
#64
BruinVol said:
I said it about a month ago that TV should be coach of the year at the time and he still needs to be in that discussion
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Agree however Scott Stricklin will end up getting COY, IMO.

CTV may be a little green, raw, or whatever you want to call it however he knows college baseball, how to put a staff together and recruit. I personally like his moxy at this stage of his career and what he inherited at UT. Hats off to the players and staff in 2018!
 
#65
#65
OldTimer said:
Agree however Scott Stricklin will end up getting COY, IMO.

CTV may be a little green, raw, or whatever you want to call it however he knows college baseball, how to put a staff together and recruit. I personally like his moxy at this stage of his career and what he inherited at UT. Hats off to the players and staff in 2018!
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Agreed on all fronts
 
#66
#66
Back to the RPI discussion, Boyd’s World has an RPI Needs Report, and it shows the Vols would have to sweep both Vandy and Mizzou to reach a top 45 RPI.

I’m guessing this could also be achieved by winning the last two series and getting a few in Hoover, maybe.
 
#67
#67
Gilbert said:
Back to the RPI discussion, Boyd’s World has an RPI Needs Report, and it shows the Vols would have to sweep both Vandy and Mizzou to reach a top 45 RPI.

I’m guessing this could also be achieved by winning the last two series and getting a few in Hoover, maybe.
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So you're saying there's a chance:)
 
#68
#68
Gilbert said:
Back to the RPI discussion, Boyd’s World has an RPI Needs Report, and it shows the Vols would have to sweep both Vandy and Mizzou to reach a top 45 RPI.

I’m guessing this could also be achieved by winning the last two series and getting a few in Hoover, maybe.
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Thanks for the good info.I think 5-1 down the stretch and two wins in the SEC Tournament will get them in. That would give them a 34-26 record. With the strength of the SEC I think that will do it.
 
#69
#69
Gilbert said:
Back to the RPI discussion, Boyd’s World has an RPI Needs Report, and it shows the Vols would have to sweep both Vandy and Mizzou to reach a top 45 RPI.

I’m guessing this could also be achieved by winning the last two series and getting a few in Hoover, maybe.
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Volsbaseballfan1 said:
Thanks for the good info.I think 5-1 down the stretch and two wins in the SEC Tournament will get them in. That would give them a 34-26 record. With the strength of the SEC I think that will do it.
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as optimistic as I am and a true Vol homer, thats asking a lot.....we also need every team we've beaten to win as much as possible the next 2 weeks. At least we have a chance....
 
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#70
#70
OldTimer said:
as optimistic as I am and a true Vol homer, thats asking a lot.....we also need every team we've beaten to win as much as possible the next 2 weeks. At least we have a chance....
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I agree. Don’t expect it to happen but the possibility is there even though it’s a very low one. Just imagine if we could get the LSU game and Florida game back.? I think 4-2 down the stretch and maybe just one win in the tourney would have got them in.
 
#72
#72
Kentucky and Mississippi State series intrigues me..

Both are a game ahead of us. Who are you pulling for? UK closes with Vandy and State closes against UF.
 
#74
#74
appyvol said:
Kentucky and Mississippi State series intrigues me..

Both are a game ahead of us. Who are you pulling for? UK closes with Vandy and State closes against UF.
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I’d root for UK. Helps our RPI if they win, and I think the Vols have a chance to pass Miss St since they play UF to close the regular season.
 
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#75
#75
Friday night - Heflin - try to get through the line up once , short leash , see how things are going then come in with Lingo when needed - I like a finesse lefty to start and power righty in behind him with Crochet for situatioal needs , Wallace and Stallings in the wings to finish.
 
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