RPI and Bracketology

#1
fryeguy93

fryeguy93

Rufus X. Sarsaparilli
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Dec 11, 2009
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#1
Ho hum

Yet another 30 win season as Tennessee has clinched another winning season.

2018 was the last full season that we did not reach 30 wins (29-27). This was CTV's first season
2015 (24-26) was the last below .500 season. (CDS season four)

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As of April 29th:

The double digit shutout win over the Wolves cost UT 3 RPI spots. (Down to 32)
Miami, Arkansas and Liberty move ahead (only Liberty actually played a game as the Flames run ruled Charlotte.

The RPI cancel game is not a big deal in the SEC as it is in the midwest and north.

West Georgia actually jumped 2 spots to 255 (our of 308)

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Warren Nolan's Predicted RPI Team Sheet has bad news as his computer predicts Tennessee will finish at #46 RPI. Two wins at Kentucky. Swept at home by Texas and lose 2 fo 3 at Oklahoma. There are predicted wins over #284 Presbyterian and #217 Belmont.

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The Vols sit at #32 RPI
8-6 against Quad 1
1-3 against Quad 2 (Vanderbilt 3 losses)
3-4 against Quad 3 (2 losses to LSU and Kent)
18-2 against Quad 4 (Mizzou and Wright)

It is flukey that Tennessee only has four Quad 2 games.
Kent, LSU., and Wright doing worse than expected this season. Vanderbilt is only a Quad 2 game because the games were on road.

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D1 has Tennessee as a 2 and playing at #10 Coastal Carolina. The #7 seed is Kansas and that region is paired with Coastal Region.

Especially after Coastal spanked UNC last night, I would have had Coastal at #7 and Kansas at #10. To be honest, I'm not sold on the Jayhawks - or anyone in the Big12 right now.

If Tennessee could not host, I would take Coastal any day of the week. I have condo in dirty myrtle.

Coastal beat UNC last night, but UNC pitching imploded late.

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I know it's apples-to-oranges but let's look at first year coaching records.

2026 30-15 .667 (Elander)
2018 29-27 .518 (Vitello)
2012 24-31 .436 (Serrano)
2008 27-29 .482 (He Who Shall Not Be Named)
1990 28-31 .475 (Delmonico)
1988 21-29 .420 (Connor)
1982 29-17 .630 (Whited)
1963 11-15 .423 (Wright)
1958 2-13-1 .125 (Cafego)


I know Elander had more advantages than all the other coaches but I know this, Michael Earley at Texas A&M last season with even more advantages would have taken Elander's record. The Aggies with a loaded roster finished 30-26 and 11-19 and 14th in the SEC.

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Unlike some past seasons, every Div 1 team has a win. Actually Delaware State has the fewest with 3 wins.

Fourteen teams have single digit wins.

#282 Lafayette 9-32
#286 Saint Thomas 9-30
#288 Ohio 8-35
#289 Youngstown State 9-34
#291 Bradley 8-36
#292 Oakland 9-30
#299 New Haven 7-28
#301 Prairie View 6-33
#303 Coppin State 8-30
#304 Alabama A&M 6-36
#305 Alcorn State 4-35
#306 Maryland Eastern Shore 7-31
#307 Saint Peter's 4-37
#308 Delaware State

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Four more SEC wins gets Tennessee into the NCAA tourney. Likely three more.
Six wins and a win or two in Hoover gets UT a host spot.
The Vols need a sweep over somebody, UK would be the best bet but the Wildcats have not been swept all season but have lost six series in a row. That middle school girls softball team of a dugout sells their collective souls for a win or two over Tennessee every season. They will do something funky with the stadium lights Friday night. They will burn their bullpen in game one if that means getting that win.
Tennessee traditionally does poorly in last series road games. Vols need good things to happen this weekend and next at home and not put too much pressure on themselves Norman.

If the Vols new found offense continues to roll and we beat Kentucky comfortably Friday night. Then the day games on Saturday and Sunday may be played in front of mostly Tennessee fans on Derby weekend.
 
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#4
#4
VolFan_stuck_in_the_901 said:
We won't get swept by Texas; even Vandy took a game against Texas in Nashville
Click to expand...

It will be interesting to see what the pitching rotation will be this weekend. With Saturday and Sunday off, we could completely flip the rotation and put Teegan on Friday, Evan on Saturday and Landon on the less pressure filled Sunday spot.

We would be experimenting with rotation on a lesser opponent even if on the road.
 
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#6
#6
TheBigOne10 said:
I would kill to be paired in a regional with Coastal. And that theoretical pairing for supers👀👀
Click to expand...

I think Coastal will be a national seed. Meaning we would have to have a weaker finish to play there. They are RPI 16 now after last night's whitewashing. The close at ULL and host Clemson and Citadel in last two midweek games. They may go 11-0, 10-1, or 9-2 to close and if they do, they will be a top 8 team
 
#7
#7
I wouldn't mind a coastal regional. Since it's been predicted, it's probably less likely to happen. Would love to have Tennessee come in here and beat Coastal in their house. I know it would be unlikely, but Coastal is loved in the area, and their faces in the stadium would be priceless!!I

I have property in "dirty myrtle" and absolutely love it. I would try my best to go to the game, it would be the first time I have seen Tennessee play live since Todd Helton.

I think, or hope Tn has turned a corner; they have found ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory too long. Lost too many close games by feet and inches. GO VOLS!
 
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#12
#12
Win today takes us up three spots to 34. Ironically, 1 spot ahead of Kentucky.
All in all, Vols are down five spots on the week as a whole as they started at 29. They lost more spots (three) after a midweek win over West Georgia than they did after two embarrassing road losses to Kentucky.

Kentucky does count as a quad 1 opponent since they were road games. Unfortunately, that means the Vols Q1 record drops. However, we are still above .500 at 10-8.

Kent State had a good week and they are back on our Q2 list. But sadly, our Q2 record is 1-5

ETSU and SC Upstate are now Q3 meaning our Q3 record is 3-2 with both losses to LSU.
Q$ is 17-2

UT will need to find 3 more wins in the next two SEC weekends. That's going to be tough as we simply do not know what Tennessee team will come to the ballpark on any particular day.

Tennessee will now likely be a third seed in a region. They may squeak into a low second seed. As stated before three seeds have a better chance of playing near home than a lower second seed- at least theoretically, as this is the first season the committee is seeding 1-32 instead of 1-16. At a 31 or 32 seed the Vols could be shipped to UCLA.

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Tennessee at 11-13 is the highest RPI ranked team with a conference losing record. Kentucky also at 11-13 and VaTech at 13-14 are just behind. Then there is not another "loser" until #41 Clemson (8-16) who came off the mat this weekend to take 2 against visiting BC.


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Speaking of Clemson. They play at #17 Coastal midweek and host #7 Florida State this weekend. Should they play well, the Tigers RPI could get them into tourney with 13 wins as well. The close at #36 VaTech the final weekend in what could be a lose-and-go-home series.


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After a disastrous series in Stanford last week, Florida State trounced now #49 Pitt this weekend and jumped 9 spots in RPI to # 7

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Mississippi State split a tough week 2-2 without playing at home. Neutral win over #13 Mississippi and a win at #3 Texas.

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As it stands now, the SEC should :

Have three national seeds

Georgia
Texas
Texas A&M

Have two or three regional hosting teams
Mississippi State
Auburn
Alabama/Ole Miss/Florida

with good two weekends perhaps they could get four regional hosts

This is a dream season for the SEC haters as more non-traditional geographic schools will host.

UCLA has already wrapped the 1 seed.
North Carolina and Georgia Tech will be top 5 seeds
Oregon State is clear national seed
Coastal will be a region host but still has shot at national seed depending on what happens the final weekend at ULL
The SEC haters are going to drag Kansas into a national seed whether they want to go or not
Southern Miss will host
Oregon will host
Florida State should host.

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Nebraska was the darling. They were counting their corn fed chickens before they hatched. They are the self professed media darlings of the midwest.
Their season ticket holders were upset about an email stating they may not get their seats for regional play.
What happed

Nebraska 1 , Ohio State 2
Nebraska 3, Ohio State 7
Nebraska 1, Ohio State 10

Most people don't even realize the Buckeyes play baseball. They came into the series at 21-21 and 10-11 in Little-10 and #116 in the RPI. They were not even the best team in Ohio. South Carolina had a better RPI!
OSU is now up 28 spots to 88. Nebraska only fell 5 spots to 18 but I don't see the committee forgiving them for this weekend. The Huskers close at home with Iowa, midweek at Creighton, and at Minnesota. They better lose just 1 game if they dream of hosting.


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UNC got toasted midweek by visiting Coastal and then conveniently cancelled against #247 Queens. then run ruled Duke in a single non-conf game.

I bet they get passed in polls and rankings by GaTEch,Texas and possibly Georgia

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Oklahoma is stumbling a bit losing series vs. visiting Florida. They have lost two series in a row and now go to Arkansas and host Tennessee

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Here's thje D1-top 25 teams that had losing weeks.

Oklahoma 1-2
Nebraska 1-3
Ole Miss 1-3

I don't think there will be a lot of movement.


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Vanderbilt's RPI has plummeted to 71. They are 10-14 in SEC.
However, they close with the dregs of the SEC at #124 Mizzou and #102 South Carolina. Even if they swept both, Vanderbilt is not getting above #50. Even their midweek game vs. #104 Louisville can hurt more than help.

So, it's possible Vanderbilt finishes with 14-15-16 SEC wins and has no chance to make tourney unless they win in Hoover.

They are 5-15 Q1
3-1 Q2 All Tennessee wins
6-2 Q3
13-4 Q4

Their SOS is 34 but their non conf SOS is 265 (UT is 128) and their NC record is 17-8. Their best NC wins are all Q3 wins over #67 Troy, #74 Xavier, #121 UCI (neutral), #132 Texas Tech (neutral), and #204 Lipscomb (Road)

The dores have home Q4 losses to Indiana, Central Ark, and North Dakota State and a neutral site Q4 loss to Arizona



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I'm not sold on any ACC team right now.

I think Georgia Tech is the cream of the crop and the record is gawdy, but I just don't see it. The league is very top heavy,

And we KNOWS the Yellowjackets tournament history when SEC teams come to ATL. In last week's bracket projections. D1 had Tech as 2 seed with Fla State as the 15. That's the best case scenario for the Jackets right now. There was an SEC team in ATL for region (Vandy at #3) and in FSU (Alabama #2) but that should be no problems. Even the rest of that bracket would have Tech playing #7 Kansas in Omaha or #10 Coastal

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#13
#13
fryeguy93 said:
Win today takes us up three spots to 34. Ironically, 1 spot ahead of Kentucky.
All in all, Vols are down five spots on the week as a whole as they started at 29. They lost more spots (three) after a midweek win over West Georgia than they did after two embarrassing road losses to Kentucky.

Kentucky does count as a quad 1 opponent since they were road games. Unfortunately, that means the Vols Q1 record drops. However, we are still above .500 at 10-8.

Kent State had a good week and they are back on our Q2 list. But sadly, our Q2 record is 1-5

ETSU and SC Upstate are now Q3 meaning our Q3 record is 3-2 with both losses to LSU.
Q$ is 17-2

UT will need to find 3 more wins in the next two SEC weekends. That's going to be tough as we simply do not know what Tennessee team will come to the ballpark on any particular day.

Tennessee will now likely be a third seed in a region. They may squeak into a low second seed. As stated before three seeds have a better chance of playing near home than a lower second seed- at least theoretically, as this is the first season the committee is seeding 1-32 instead of 1-16. At a 31 or 32 seed the Vols could be shipped to UCLA.

------------------------------------------------------------

Tennessee at 11-13 is the highest RPI ranked team with a conference losing record. Kentucky also at 11-13 and VaTech at 13-14 are just behind. Then there is not another "loser" until #41 Clemson (8-16) who came off the mat this weekend to take 2 against visiting BC.


-------------------------------------------------------------

Speaking of Clemson. They play at #17 Coastal midweek and host #7 Florida State this weekend. Should they play well, the Tigers RPI could get them into tourney with 13 wins as well. The close at #36 VaTech the final weekend in what could be a lose-and-go-home series.


---------------------------

After a disastrous series in Stanford last week, Florida State trounced now #49 Pitt this weekend and jumped 9 spots in RPI to # 7

-----------------------------

Mississippi State split a tough week 2-2 without playing at home. Neutral win over #13 Mississippi and a win at #3 Texas.

--------------------------------

As it stands now, the SEC should :

Have three national seeds

Georgia
Texas
Texas A&M

Have two or three regional hosting teams
Mississippi State
Auburn
Alabama/Ole Miss/Florida

with good two weekends perhaps they could get four regional hosts

This is a dream season for the SEC haters as more non-traditional geographic schools will host.

UCLA has already wrapped the 1 seed.
North Carolina and Georgia Tech will be top 5 seeds
Oregon State is clear national seed
Coastal will be a region host but still has shot at national seed depending on what happens the final weekend at ULL
The SEC haters are going to drag Kansas into a national seed whether they want to go or not
Southern Miss will host
Oregon will host
Florida State should host.

-----------------------------------------------------

Nebraska was the darling. They were counting their corn fed chickens before they hatched. They are the self professed media darlings of the midwest.
Their season ticket holders were upset about an email stating they may not get their seats for regional play.
What happed

Nebraska 1 , Ohio State 2
Nebraska 3, Ohio State 7
Nebraska 1, Ohio State 10

Most people don't even realize the Buckeyes play baseball. They came into the series at 21-21 and 10-11 in Little-10 and #116 in the RPI. They were not even the best team in Ohio. South Carolina had a better RPI!
OSU is now up 28 spots to 88. Nebraska only fell 5 spots to 18 but I don't see the committee forgiving them for this weekend. The Huskers close at home with Iowa, midweek at Creighton, and at Minnesota. They better lose just 1 game if they dream of hosting.


--------------------------------------------

UNC got toasted midweek by visiting Coastal and then conveniently cancelled against #247 Queens. then run ruled Duke in a single non-conf game.

I bet they get passed in polls and rankings by GaTEch,Texas and possibly Georgia

---------------------------------------

Oklahoma is stumbling a bit losing series vs. visiting Florida. They have lost two series in a row and now go to Arkansas and host Tennessee

---------------------------------------

Here's thje D1-top 25 teams that had losing weeks.

Oklahoma 1-2
Nebraska 1-3
Ole Miss 1-3

I don't think there will be a lot of movement.


---------------------------------------

Vanderbilt's RPI has plummeted to 71. They are 10-14 in SEC.
However, they close with the dregs of the SEC at #124 Mizzou and #102 South Carolina. Even if they swept both, Vanderbilt is not getting above #50. Even their midweek game vs. #104 Louisville can hurt more than help.

So, it's possible Vanderbilt finishes with 14-15-16 SEC wins and has no chance to make tourney unless they win in Hoover.

They are 5-15 Q1
3-1 Q2 All Tennessee wins
6-2 Q3
13-4 Q4

Their SOS is 34 but their non conf SOS is 265 (UT is 128) and their NC record is 17-8. Their best NC wins are all Q3 wins over #67 Troy, #74 Xavier, #121 UCI (neutral), #132 Texas Tech (neutral), and #204 Lipscomb (Road)

The dores have home Q4 losses to Indiana, Central Ark, and North Dakota State and a neutral site Q4 loss to Arizona



--------------------------------------

I'm not sold on any ACC team right now.

I think Georgia Tech is the cream of the crop and the record is gawdy, but I just don't see it. The league is very top heavy,

And we KNOWS the Yellowjackets tournament history when SEC teams come to ATL. In last week's bracket projections. D1 had Tech as 2 seed with Fla State as the 15. That's the best case scenario for the Jackets right now. There was an SEC team in ATL for region (Vandy at #3) and in FSU (Alabama #2) but that should be no problems. Even the rest of that bracket would have Tech playing #7 Kansas in Omaha or #10 Coastal

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Click to expand...

I agree. Probably not a lot of poll movement. It’s always been funny to me. If yer in the poll, you gotta really F up to fall out, and climbing your way up is ridiculously difficult, especially this year with our conference being so bunched a little above/below .500.

Also agree on 3, some solace that we get the other UT at home, but they are a well balanced team. We shall see.
 
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#15
#15
TheBigOne10 said:
You think we need 3 more and not 2? 3 would make me feel better but I was thinking 2 would get us in the dance.
Click to expand...

The West Coast nd Big10 are better than the prior five years. Still not that great, but the committee has moved heaven and earth to get non traditional regions into the tourney. I would not rely on 13 IF you lost the first Hoover game. The Big10 RPI was clearly improved by simply importing schools (UCLA, USC, Oregon) and by adding in those three teams, the BIg10 jumps from a one or two bid league to 5 or even six- if Purdue can beat Indiana and Iowa; and Michigan does not trip up with Minnesota and Ohio State.

I like 14 as it is automatic.

Think of it this way, Vanderbilt will likely get to at least 13. The committee - rather than face possible controversy by inviting Tennessee at 13 wins and excluding Vandy with 14 or 15 COULD possibly leave both out and add another mid major. The Warren Nolan computer has the Vols finishing at 41 RPI at 12 or 13 wins. Vandy is projected to finish at RPI #67 at 15-14.


By the way, Warren Nolan has a bug this morning, as it has eliminated everyone's Saturday games for this coming week. Weird..
 
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#17
#17
Well after watching our starting pitching struggle this weekend in Ky and our abysmal bullpen struggle once again I don’t think anyone has a clue what to expect in these last two series , we had been competitive for the most part all season in the league til this past weekend, this one year bullpen retool has been a disaster going from big arms to junk ballers with different arm angles isn’t working , this team just making the tournament would be a big accomplishment.
 
#20
#20
knoxvol52 said:
Latest Bracketology I've viewed today has Tennessee as a #2 seed in Chapel Hill Regional
Click to expand...
Seems like a good bet we'll be in 1 of the regionals below if the rankings hold:

UNC
Georgia Tech
Coastal Carolina
Southern Miss
West Virginia

I don't want any part of Georgia Tech. I haven't really seen the other teams play.
 
#21
#21
wtmvol said:
Seems like a good bet we'll be in 1 of the regionals below if the rankings hold:

UNC
Georgia Tech
Coastal Carolina
Southern Miss
West Virginia

I don't want any part of Georgia Tech. I haven't really seen the other teams play.
Click to expand...
I think the first three on the list are the best bets.

I have somewhere to stay free for UNC and CC
 
#22
#22
fryeguy93 said:
The West Coast nd Big10 are better than the prior five years. Still not that great, but the committee has moved heaven and earth to get non traditional regions into the tourney. I would not rely on 13 IF you lost the first Hoover game. The Big10 RPI was clearly improved by simply importing schools (UCLA, USC, Oregon) and by adding in those three teams, the BIg10 jumps from a one or two bid league to 5 or even six- if Purdue can beat Indiana and Iowa; and Michigan does not trip up with Minnesota and Ohio State.

I like 14 as it is automatic.

Think of it this way, Vanderbilt will likely get to at least 13. The committee - rather than face possible controversy by inviting Tennessee at 13 wins and excluding Vandy with 14 or 15 COULD possibly leave both out and add another mid major. The Warren Nolan computer has the Vols finishing at 41 RPI at 12 or 13 wins. Vandy is projected to finish at RPI #67 at 15-14.


By the way, Warren Nolan has a bug this morning, as it has eliminated everyone's Saturday games for this coming week. Weird..
Click to expand...
I think 2 gets us in. The rpi is just too strong and we would have 12 Q1 wins assuming. The head to head with Vandy doesn't really matter in baseball - especially given their rpi and numbers. Of course, win 14 and no one worries - but I think we're fine with 13.
 
#24
#24
fryeguy93 said:
I think the first three on the list are the best bets.

I have somewhere to stay free for UNC and CC
Click to expand...
Boshamer Stadium in Chapel Hill is a great place to watch a game.

I enjoyed more than a few while in school there in the mid to late 90s. Saw Brian Roberts light it up there before they fired his daddy and he xferred to usc.

Nicer place for a game that GT. Both GT and UNC are more than capable of whipping our butts if we aren't ready for them.
 
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