Good thoughts, but I don't know that your first year coach test is quite as telling as you make it sound.
Great coaches, coach great. Yeah, cliché... but true. Great coaches make the most of what they have. They do it in the first year. They do it in the 10th year. It is part of their make up and skill set. The exception would be a cupboard bare of talent or a team with significant discipline issues. Neither is the case at UT.
Maybe the test should be in year two or later. There are plenty of coaches that had horrible first years that turned out great. For example, Saban at Bama first year 6-6, Kirby last year at UGA 7-5. The rosters on 2007 Bama and 2016 UGA had much more talent than those results.
UGA had issues and holes. Then lost their RB's. Even so they were 5 points away from being an 11 win team. They took Jones' overwhelmingly superior talented team to a hail mary. Only once did the score get anything like out of hand (Ole Miss)... and that game wasn't completely uncompetitive.
Bama had significant discipline issues requiring Saban to tell a lot of guys to not come back. Even with the turmoil... they didn't lose a single game by more than a TD. You could look and see that minor tweaks and some talent help would fix it. The obvious bad loss was ULM. But that has proven to be just one of those statistical anomalies over time.
Were they horrible coaches because of that after year one. No, of course not. Sometimes it takes a couple years to implement the system. You can't really tell anything from the results in Year one. IMO.
You may have to interpret a little more... but you can tell almost EVERYTHING from year one.
With Jones, we can see that he was going to have some success recruiting at least according to the rankings. We could tell he was going to have personal energy and try to convey it to the team through clichés and slogans. We knew he was going to impose some strict disciplines for things like meetings and other non-football activities with the hope those habits would translate to the team. We knew that he valued "character"... even in light of some of the revelations this fall concerning his.
We knew that he was not adaptable but believed in his "system"... and would be determined to pound any round peg through that square hole. (Ultimately, he didn't recruit well to his own system).
Most importantly... we had every reason to know that he was going to have problems on game day. He overestimated opponents and underestimated his own team. He had a virtual phobia against trusting his players to make the plays to win games... he would call it "managing the game". He was never a very good "manager". He was stubborn and inflexible. He didn't adapt well. He didn't adjust effectively.
Five of Jones 7 losses were by 14 points or more. Four... UT looked like homecoming fodder. The roster had more talent than
that. The average margin of loss was 23 points. With a bowl on the line... Jones was unable to beat a Vandy team that was inferior in talent.
There were a few indications that he could be abusive behind the scenes. Helm and Hendrix (maybe others) left because of it. Fans of course blamed the players... but ultimately this played into Jones losing respect and control of the program. He was a "bully" and people finally got enough.
If you were willing to see, signs of him not being the right guy were present in year one. Too many chose to delude themselves. That can't be fixed... but folks don't have to do it again with Pruitt or anyone who follows.