SEC attrition numbers from recruiting classes

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LWSVOL

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#1
Following information covers 2002-2016 signing classes for SEC schools. I found a number of players that failed to complete their eligibility at that school. Failures were counted for: Non-qualifiers, players getting dismissed, failing school, transfers, just quit playing football or unknown reasons. If players left school early for NFL, I do not count them as failing to complete eligibility. Last updated 11/10/2016

Added Rivals class ranking and number of NFL draftees for each class.

SEC Teams

Alabama

2016 Signed 24 - 02 (08%) Rank # 01
2015 Signed 24 - 06 (25%) Rank # 02
2014 Signed 26 - 01 (04%) Rank # 01
2013 Signed 25 - 11 (44%) Rank # 01
2012 Signed 26 - 07 (27%) Rank # 01 NFL 3
2011 Signed 22 - 10 (45%) Rank # 01 NFL 7
2010 Signed 26 - 10 (39%) Rank # 05 NFL 6
2009 Signed 28 - 12 (43%) Rank # 01 NFL 11
2008 Signed 32 - 16 (50%) Rank # 01 NFL 10
2007 Signed 25 - 11 (44%) Rank # 10 NFL 3
2006 Signed 23 - 12 (52%) Rank # 11 NFL 4
2005 Signed 34 - 19 (56%) Rank # 18 NFL 3
2004 Signed 27 - 12 (44%) Rank # 15 NFL 1
2003 Signed 19 - 09 (47%) Rank # 49 NFL 1
2002 Signed 18 - 06 (33%) Rank # 30 NFL 4

Last 6 Years Signed 147 - 37 (25%)

Totals Signed 379 – 144 (38%)

Arkansas

2016 Signed 21 - 00 (00%) Rank # 33
2015 Signed 23 - 02 (09%) Rank # 25
2014 Signed 24 - 05 (21%) Rank # 29
2013 Signed 23 - 07 (30%) Rank # 27 NFL 1
2012 Signed 24 - 14 (58%) Rank # 34 NFL 1
2011 Signed 30 - 16 (53%) Rank # 24 NFL 3
2010 Signed 25 - 14 (56%) Rank # 49 NFL 2
2009 Signed 31 - 13 (42%) Rank # 16 NFL 3
2008 Signed 26 - 11 (42%) Rank # 36 NFL 5
2007 Signed 27 - 10 (37%) Rank # 31 NFL 2
2006 Signed 26 - 12 (46%) Rank # 26 NFL 2
2005 Signed 24 - 11 (46%) Rank # 24 NFL 2
2004 Signed 32 - 17 (53%) Rank # 22 NFL 5
2003 Signed 25 - 12 (48%) Rank # 22 NFL 3
2002 Signed 21 - 06 (29%) Rank # 26 NFL 3

Last 6 Years Signed 145 - 44 (30%)

Totals Signed 382 – 150 (39%)

Auburn

2016 Signed 21 - 02 (10%) Rank # 09
2015 Signed 27 - 03 (12%) Rank # 06
2014 Signed 23 - 08 (35%) Rank # 09
2013 Signed 23 - 06 (26%) Rank # 08 NFL 1
2012 Signed 21 - 11 (52%) Rank # 10
2011 Signed 24 - 10 (42%) Rank # 07 NFL 6
2010 Signed 32 - 15 (47%) Rank # 04 NFL 3
2009 Signed 28 - 13 (46%) Rank # 19 NFL 2
2008 Signed 29 - 23 (79%) Rank # 20 NFL 1
2007 Signed 30 - 19 (63%) Rank # 07 NFL 2
2006 Signed 25 - 11 (44%) Rank # 10 NFL 2
2005 Signed 22 - 11 (50%) Rank # 13 NFL 4
2004 Signed 29 - 16 (55%) Rank # 21 NFL 3
2003 Signed 27 - 11 (41%) Rank # 11 NFL 4
2002 Signed 29 - 15 (52%) Rank # 06 NFL 6

Last 6 Years Signed 139 - 40 (29%)

Totals Signed 390 – 174 (45%)

Florida

2016 Signed 25 - 00 (00%) Rank # 14
2015 Signed 21 - 02 (10%) Rank # 23
2014 Signed 24 - 10 (42%) Rank # 08
2013 Signed 29 - 08 (28%) Rank # 04 NFL 1
2012 Signed 23 - 12 (52%) Rank # 03 NFL 3
2011 Signed 19 - 10 (53%) Rank # 12
2010 Signed 28 - 14 (50%) Rank # 02 NFL 10
2009 Signed 17 - 07 (41%) Rank # 11 NFL 7
2008 Signed 22 - 09 (41%) Rank # 03 NFL 2
2007 Signed 27 - 09 (33%) Rank # 01 NFL 10
2006 Signed 27 - 10 (37%) Rank # 02 NFL 7
2005 Signed 18 - 11 (61%) Rank # 15 NFL 2
2004 Signed 23 - 09 (39%) Rank # 07 NFL 4
2003 Signed 26 - 07 (27%) Rank # 02 NFL 8
2002 Signed 22 - 08 (36%) Rank # 20 NFL 5

Last 6 Years Signed 141 - 42 (30%)

Totals Signed 351 – 125 (36%)

Georgia

2016 Signed 20 - 01 (05%) Rank # 10
2015 Signed 29 - 04 (14%) Rank # 07
2014 Signed 21 - 07 (33%) Rank # 07
2013 Signed 33 - 15 (45%) Rank # 12
2012 Signed 19 - 06 (32%) Rank # 12 NFL 1
2011 Signed 26 - 08 (31%) Rank # 05 NFL 5
2010 Signed 19 - 10 (53%) Rank # 15 NFL 1
2009 Signed 20 - 07 (35%) Rank # 06 NFL 5
2008 Signed 24 - 11 (46%) Rank # 07 NFL 10
2007 Signed 23 - 10 (43%) Rank # 09 NFL 6
2006 Signed 28 - 08 (29%) Rank # 04 NFL 10
2005 Signed 19 - 08 (42%) Rank # 10 NFL 3
2004 Signed 20 - 07 (35%) Rank # 06 NFL 3
2003 Signed 25 - 09 (36%) Rank # 06 NFL 5
2002 Signed 31 - 13 (42%) Rank # 03 NFL 7

Last 6 Years Signed 148 - 41 (28%)

Totals Signed 357 – 123 (34%)

Kentucky

2016 Signed 25 - 00 (00%) Rank # 29
2015 Signed 21 - 04 (19%) Rank # 34
2014 Signed 28 - 09 (32%) Rank # 17
2013 Signed 23 - 05 (22%) Rank # 29 NFL 1
2012 Signed 26 - 18 (69%) Rank # 62
2011 Signed 24 - 13 (54%) Rank # 61 NFL 1
2010 Signed 26 - 14 (54%) Rank # 50 NFL 1
2009 Signed 29 - 14 (48%) Rank # 41 NFL 1
2008 Signed 20 - 06 (30%) Rank # 57 NFL 3
2007 Signed 29 - 13 (45%) Rank # 54
2006 Signed 30 - 17 (57%) Rank # 36 NFL 2
2005 Signed 28 - 14 (50%) Rank # 67 NFL 2
2004 Signed 28 - 11 (39%) Rank # 45 NFL 1
2003 Signed 22 - 12 (55%) Rank # 63 NFL 3
2002 Signed 15 - 08 (53%) Rank # 94

Last 6 Years Signed 147 - 49 (33%)

Totals Signed 374 – 158 (42%)

LSU

2016 Signed 23 - 00 (00%) Rank # 06
2015 Signed 25 - 04 (16%) Rank # 08
2014 Signed 23 - 06 (26%) Rank # 02
2013 Signed 26 - 08 (31%) Rank # 06
2012 Signed 24 - 09 (38%) Rank # 18 NFL 2
2011 Signed 24 - 10 (42%) Rank # 06 NFL 7
2010 Signed 28 - 13 (46%) Rank # 06 NFL 7
2009 Signed 24 - 09 (38%) Rank # 02 NFL 9
2008 Signed 26 - 12 (46%) Rank # 11 NFL 3
2007 Signed 26 - 12 (46%) Rank # 04 NFL 6
2006 Signed 26 - 13 (50%) Rank # 07 NFL 5
2005 Signed 14 - 05 (36%) Rank # 22 NFL 3
2004 Signed 26 - 06 (23%) Rank # 02 NFL 11
2003 Signed 28 - 11 (39%) Rank # 01 NFL 6
2002 Signed 26 - 13 (50%) Rank # 15 NFL 2

Last 6 Years Signed 145 - 37 (26%)

Totals Signed 369 – 131 (36%)

Ole Miss

2016 Signed 24 - 02 (08%) Rank # 07
2015 Signed 22 - 02 (09%) Rank # 21
2014 Signed 25 - 05 (20%) Rank # 19
2013 Signed 27 - 12 (41%) Rank # 07
2012 Signed 18 - 04 (22%) Rank # 40
2011 Signed 27 - 10 (37%) Rank # 19 NFL 2
2010 Signed 25 - 11 (44%) Rank # 18
2009 Signed 37 - 24 (65%) Rank # 18 NFL 1
2008 Signed 30 - 14 (47%) Rank # 29
2007 Signed 22 - 11 (50%) Rank # 27
2006 Signed 30 - 09 (30%) Rank # 16 NFL 5
2005 Signed 28 - 15 (57%) Rank # 30 NFL 4
2004 Signed 25 - 14 (56%) Rank # 30 NFL 1
2003 Signed 21 - 10 (48%) Rank # 38 NFL 2
2002 Signed 18 - 10 (56%) Rank # 33

Last 6 Years Signed 143 - 35 (24%)

Totals Signed 379 – 153 (40%)

Mississippi St

2016 Signed 18 - 01 (06%) Rank # 34
2015 Signed 28 - 02 (07%) Rank # 16
2014 Signed 23 - 03 (13%) Rank # 39
2013 Signed 21 - 10 (48%) Rank # 26
2012 Signed 28 - 11 (39%) Rank # 30
2011 Signed 23 - 09 (39%) Rank # 44 NFL 4
2010 Signed 26 - 10 (38%) Rank # 38 NFL 3
2009 Signed 27 - 08 (30%) Rank # 25 NFL 7
2008 Signed 27 - 16 (59%) Rank # 44 NFL 1
2007 Signed 33 - 16 (48%) Rank # 39 NFL 2
2006 Signed 24 - 11 (46%) Rank # 44 NFL 1
2005 Signed 28 - 15 (54%) Rank # 33 NFL 1
2004 Signed 23 - 17 (74%) Rank # 62
2003 Signed 27 - 13 (46%) Rank # 09
2002 Signed 31 - 19 (61%) Rank # 17 NFL 1

Last 6 Years Signed 141 - 36 (26%)

Totals Signed 387 – 161 (42%)

Missouri

2016 Signed 20 - 02 (10%) Rank # 52
2015 Signed 23 - 03 (13%) Rank # 29
2014 Signed 28 - 08 (29%) Rank # 34
2013 Signed 21 - 10 (48%) Rank # 41
2012 Signed 19 - 10 (53%) Rank # 31 NFL 2
2011 Signed 17 - 06 (35%) Rank # 48 NFL 2
2010 Signed 23 - 07 (30%) Rank # 21 NFL 5
2009 Signed 25 - 10 (40%) Rank # 40 NFL 3
2008 Signed 23 - 06 (26%) Rank # 25 NFL 4
2007 Signed 27 - 12 (44%) Rank # 33 NFL 1
2006 Signed 24 - 11 (46%) Rank # 47 NFL 2
2005 Signed 23 - 10 (43%) Rank # 39 NFL 2
2004 Signed 25 - 14 (56%) Rank # 29 NFL 3
2003 Signed 23 - 09 (39%) Rank # 28 NFL 1
2002 Signed 23 - 11 (48%) Rank # 29 NFL 1

Last 6 Years Signed 127 - 38 (30%)

Totals Signed 344 – 129 (38%)

South Carolina

2016 Signed 26 - 03 (12%) Rank # 26
2015 Signed 29 - 06 (21%) Rank # 19
2014 Signed 21 - 08 (38%) Rank # 16
2013 Signed 21 - 11 (52%) Rank # 16
2012 Signed 25 - 15 (60%) Rank # 19 NFL 1
2011 Signed 32 - 14 (44%) Rank # 18 NFL 2
2010 Signed 23 - 06 (26%) Rank # 24 NFL 4
2009 Signed 29 - 15 (52%) Rank # 12 NFL 6
2008 Signed 23 - 11 (48%) Rank # 22 NFL 3
2007 Signed 31 - 15 (48%) Rank # 06 NFL 6
2006 Signed 24 - 12 (50%) Rank # 24 NFL 4
2005 Signed 28 - 14 (50%) Rank # 23 NFL 4
2004 Signed 29 - 18 (62%) Rank # 35 NFL 5
2003 Signed 28 - 10 (36%) Rank # 08 NFL 2
2002 Signed 27 - 13 (48%) Rank # 11 NFL 3

Last 6 Years Signed 154 - 57 (37%)

Totals Signed 396 – 171 (43%)

Tennessee

2016 Signed 21 - 01 (05%) Rank # 15
2015 Signed 30 - 07 (35%) Rank # 05
2014 Signed 32 - 12 (38%) Rank # 05
2013 Signed 23 - 10 (43%) Rank # 21
2012 Signed 22 - 15 (68%) Rank # 17 NFL 2
2011 Signed 28 - 15 (54%) Rank # 13
2010 Signed 28 - 11 (39%) Rank # 10 NFL 4
2009 Signed 24 - 19 (79%) Rank # 10 NFL 2
2008 Signed 18 - 06 (33%) Rank # 35 NFL 2
2007 Signed 32 - 19 (59%) Rank # 03 NFL 3
2006 Signed 22 - 12 (55%) Rank # 23 NFL 3
2005 Signed 27 - 11 (41%) Rank # 04 NFL 4
2004 Signed 24 - 07 (29%) Rank # 11 NFL 4
2003 Signed 22 - 08 (36%) Rank # 18 NFL 4
2002 Signed 25 - 09 (36%) Rank # 02 NFL 7

Last 6 Years Signed 156 - 60 (38%)

Totals Signed 378 – 162 (43%)

Texas A&M

2016 Signed 21 - 01 (05%) Rank # 16
2015 Signed 25 - 03 (12%) Rank # 10
2014 Signed 21 - 05 (24%) Rank # 06
2013 Signed 32 - 20 (63%) Rank # 11
2012 Signed 19 - 09 (47%) Rank # 15
2011 Signed 22 - 09 (41%) Rank # 27 NFL 2
2010 Signed 24 - 09 (38%) Rank # 17 NFL 5
2009 Signed 28 - 12 (43%) Rank # 22 NFL 3
2008 Signed 25 - 16 (64%) Rank # 16 NFL 3
2007 Signed 19 - 12 (63%) Rank # 43 NFL 2
2006 Signed 23 - 09 (39%) Rank # 27 NFL 2
2005 Signed 26 - 10 (38%) Rank # 08 NFL 1
2004 Signed 29 - 16 (55%) Rank # 13 NFL 1
2003 Signed 24 - 11 (46%) Rank # 10 NFL 4
2002 Signed 23 - 11 (48%) Rank # 23 NFL 2

Last 6 Years Signed 140 - 47 (34%)

Totals Signed 361 – 152 (42%)

Vanderbilt

2016 Signed 20 - 00 (00%) Rank # 60
2015 Signed 18 - 00 (00%) Rank # 46
2014 Signed 22 - 04 (18%) Rank # 48
2013 Signed 26 - 09 (35%) Rank # 19
2012 Signed 22 - 12 (55%) Rank # 29
2011 Signed 21 - 12 (57%) Rank # 70
2010 Signed 24 - 09 (38%) Rank # 61 NFL 2
2009 Signed 18 - 10 (56%) Rank # 71 NFL 2
2008 Signed 21 - 12 (57%) Rank # 90 NFL 2
2007 Signed 14 - 05 (36%) Rank # 67 NFL 1
2006 Signed 25 - 11 (44%) Rank # 60 NFL 2
2005 Signed 25 - 08 (32%) Rank # 87 NFL 2
2004 Signed 20 - 10 (50%) Rank # 66
2003 Signed 22 - 11 (50%) Rank # 78 NFL 2
2002 Signed 22 - 10 (45%) Rank # 76

Last 6 Years Signed 129 - 37 (29%)

Totals Signed 320 – 123 (38%)

SEC Totals Signed 5,167 – 2,056 (40%)
 
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#2
#2
What is most telling is that CBJ's classes 2013-2016 (if I did math correctly) come out at a 28.3% attrition rate. 106 signed - 30 lost

This appears to be inline with the rest of the league.
 
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#4
#4
1974Vol said:
What is most telling is that CBJ's classes 2013-2016 (if I did math correctly) come out at a 28.3% attrition rate. 106 signed - 30 lost

This appears to be inline with the rest of the league.
Click to expand...

keep in mind, when the 2016 class enrolled in August that 21 of the 106 HAD to be gone just to be in line with the 85 roster maximum. some was happening each year but it is significant he signed more in the four years then he could keep. Attrition had to occur
 
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#5
#5
My takeaway is that Tennessee is a middle of the pack team in recruiting compared to the rest of the league and is commensurate with the performance on the field. Recruiting matters.
 
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#6
#6
Great info! Should make most fans feel better about losing players.

Quick note: Tennessee's 2015 rate should be 23%.
 
#7
#7
fade route said:
My takeaway is that Tennessee is a middle of the pack team in recruiting compared to the rest of the league and is commensurate with the performance on the field. Recruiting matters.
Click to expand...

B-b-But that one guy Cam Sutton was a 3 star
 
#9
#9
Hey LWS I understand that Butch had to take a chance on a few guys trying to flip the rOster and get in more talent, but he also had to build talented depth behind the starters, so seeing how we are middle of the pack attrition wise would it not be better to have been in the lower tier in those attrition rates, or do you think that needs to be more of a point of enphesis going forward.
 
#11
#11
discontent523 said:
Hey LWS I understand that Butch had to take a chance on a few guys trying to flip the rOster and get in more talent, but he also had to build talented depth behind the starters, so seeing how we are middle of the pack attrition wise would it not be better to have been in the lower tier in those attrition rates, or do you think that needs to be more of a point of enphesis going forward.
Click to expand...

I don't think coaches can control the attrition rate. I've been tracking this since 2002. Attrition happens at about a 40% rate. See the last line which reflects SEC attrition total for all 15 years for all SEC schools. the number is 40%.

We signed 30 plus or so, in Butch's second and third class. If all 60 were still here and then he signed 25 in the 4th class and they all stayed, it would mean he could sign no players in the 5th class (2017). So attrition is natural and you must have it or you end up with classes of no recruits. Your always going to get some kids who just don't turn out for a lot of reasons.

I'm not sure I answered your question but hope this helps
 
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#12
#12
Thanks, yes that was my line of thought also, if we can get to a point where we are hitting on recruits more so than missing, that we allow us to prevent oversigning,and just maybe keep the numbers between the lines and I think our depth will finally staRt to build up to where it needs to be.
 
#13
#13
1974Vol said:
What is most telling is that CBJ's classes 2013-2016 (if I did math correctly) come out at a 28.3% attrition rate. 106 signed - 30 lost

This appears to be inline with the rest of the league.
Click to expand...

No it's not, fahr Butch now.


Sorry to lazy for blue font.


Seriously, great info LWSVOL!
 
#14
#14
Catbone said:
B-b-But that one guy Cam Sutton was a 3 star
Click to expand...

Get over it Cat. Same ole dead horse beating commits from you. Try to come up with some new every once in while. Easy to sit on the sidelines and criticize everyone. There are more than Sutton that has been successful 3* you will will watching you RB Saturday John Kelly that was a 3* and I believe he is doing pretty good. Better than the 5* that deserted his teammates.
 
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#16
#16
TNnative said:
If it wasn't for our 3* guys, we would be in sorry shape.

It is a big chunk of the 4* and 5* guys who end up being busts/quitters and whatever else you want to blame.
Click to expand...

Yeah Id like to see the attrition rates based on star ranking. I would bet the higher rated proportionately wash out more.
 
Last edited:
#17
#17
1974Vol said:
What is most telling is that CBJ's classes 2013-2016 (if I did math correctly) come out at a 28.3% attrition rate. 106 signed - 30 lost

This appears to be inline with the rest of the league.
Click to expand...

You have to recalculate everyone else too. In those 4 years :

Bama- 18%
Ark- 15%
Aub- 20%
UF- 20%
UGA- 26%
UK- 19%
LSU- 19%
Ole Miss- 21%
MSU- 18%
MU- 25%
USCe- 29% (which indicts Jones even more for being outcoached by Muschamp.... again)
UT- 28%
TAM- 29%
VU- 15%

UT is still at the bottom of the conference for attrition under Jones. It appears from Larry's data that some other programs have figured out how to improve their overall attrition..
 
Last edited:
#18
#18
If you are trying to overhaul your roster in a hurry, you sign as many as you can.

Process athletes once you realize they can't play. Sign more. Repeat.
 
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#20
#20
sjt18 said:
You have to recalculate everyone else too. In those 4 years :

Bama- 18%
Ark- 15%
Aub- 20%
UF- 20%
UGA- 26%
UK- 19%
LSU- 19%
Ole Miss- 21%
MSU- 18%
MU- 25%
USCe- 29% (which indicts Jones even more for being outcoached by Muschamp.... again)
UT- 28%
TAM- 29%
VU- 15%

UT is still at the bottom of the conference for attrition under Jones. It appears from Larry's data that some other programs have figured out how to improve their overall attrition..
Click to expand...
based on that logic vandy and ark should be on top of the league
 
#21
#21
sjt18 said:
You have to recalculate everyone else too. In those 4 years :

Bama- 18%
Ark- 15%
Aub- 20%
UF- 20%
UGA- 26%
UK- 19%
LSU- 19%
Ole Miss- 21%
MSU- 18%
MU- 25%
USCe- 29% (which indicts Jones even more for being outcoached by Muschamp.... again)
UT- 28%
TAM- 29%
VU- 15%

UT is still at the bottom of the conference for attrition under Jones. It appears from Larry's data that some other programs have figured out how to improve their overall attrition..
Click to expand...

attrition happens at different rates for different programs but generally ends up fairly close to the norm. I would debate a couple points here or there.

The most consistent thing is the higher education type programs (Stanford, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Vandy etc) sign less players per year and retain the highest percentage of players. USC is another that signs small classes and retains them well.

That may be the best strategy is small classes... USC did it on their run with Carroll when they weer so good.

but you have to rebuild rosters from time to time. which require a program to maybe sign 27 to 33 players. In most cases close to 50% or more become part of the attrition numbers.

again I will point out. Jones has signed 106 players in 2013, 14, 15 and 16. that automatically means 21 will be part of the attrition in that 4 year period JUST to remain at 85 roster max
 
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#22
#22
BigZiti09 said:
If you are trying to overhaul your roster in a hurry, you sign as many as you can.

Process athletes once you realize they can't play. Sign more. Repeat.
Click to expand...

Yeah... except several other coaches have done that without the attrition we've seen under Jones.... and they've won more.
 
#23
#23
wtorange said:
based on that logic vandy and ark should be on top of the league
Click to expand...

No. Actual talent factors in as well. But if you get talent and it leaves before making a contribution.... then you are no better off than the team that can't get top talent. And when you are dependent on developing players rather than signing field ready players as Bama does every year... You REALLY can't have high attrition.
 
#24
#24
LWSVOL said:
attrition happens at different rates for different programs but generally ends up fairly close to the norm. I would debate a couple points here or there.

The most consistent thing is the higher education type programs (Stanford, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Vandy etc) sign less players per year and retain the highest percentage of players. USC is another that signs small classes and retains them well.

That may be the best strategy is small classes... USC did it on their run with Carroll when they weer so good.

but you have to rebuild rosters from time to time. which require a program to maybe sign 27 to 33 players. In most cases close to 50% or more become part of the attrition numbers.

again I will point out. Jones has signed 106 players in 2013, 14, 15 and 16. that automatically means 21 will be part of the attrition in that 4 year period JUST to remain at 85 roster max
Click to expand...

The only way you get to those small classes.... is to NOT have high attrition on a consistent basis.
 
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