The biggest worry with MSST is their ability to draw charges and create turnovers. They can foul Burrell/Horston out in the first half just from offensive fouls alone. If Tennessee plays under control and limits turnovers (especially live ball turnovers), they have a real chance. I think that Key can make things difficult for Carter inside, and the MSST guards are not long ball specialists. As long as Danberry doesn't go off like she did last year, I think this is a winnable game. The xfactors are the MSST 3-ball (Bibby, Mathuru and AEH) and probably Kushkituah for Tennessee. They need to be relentless inside, because I think Carter will be able to go all game and Key will need to come out for breathers. The play can't drop off when KK comes in.
The game between South Carolina and Mississippi State was won at the free throw line, where the Gamecocks made 13 of 19 while the Bulldogs made 10 of 12. The completion % is of no importance here: it is the number of completions. Miss. State score 69 points from the field (30 from 2-pt. range, 3 from 3-pt.), compared to the Gamecocks scoring 68 (28 from the 2, 4 from the 3). So the 3 extra points from the charity line explains the 2-point win.
Both teams had a solid FG completion % upwards of 50%, and were even in rebounding (38 to 35 in the Gamecocks' favor). The Bulldogs relied on isolation dribble-drives by their guards all game long, and the Gamecocks were somehow unable to stop them. They used the zone very sparingly. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks had solid ball distribution and spread the scoring as they tend to do this season: the Gamecocks had 17 assists to the Bulldogs only having 5 dimes. Both teams were equal in turnovers with USC having one more than MSU 11-10, but 9 of those 11 turnovers were from 9 Bulldog steals.
This will be a serious issue for the Lady Vols, as strong perimeter defense and guard play is a Vic Shaefer trademark, So Horston and Massengill will have their work cut out for them. But if the Lady Vols use their great post presence and defense, and protect the penetration into the paint better than the Gamecocks did (they didn't do so well at that), they could contain the Bulldog offense. But again, need to protect the ball - if Miss State steal the ball all game long, those Lady Vols bigs won't be able to get back in time to help.
In regards to Key: Boston surprised Dawn Staley with her shot-blocking skills, and to start the season Boston was a ball-bludgeoning beast, but she was also picking up fouls in a pretty decent rate. The lone loss the Gamecocks have this season to Indiana, was the one game Boston fouled out, and was in foul trouble all game long.
Not sure if the staff talked with her or not, or if it was something she chose on her own, but as the season progressed, Boston has not been as focused on going after shot attempts as she was earlier in the season. Before the SEC schedule began, Boston had collected 41 blocks, for nearly a 3.2 bpg average, and averaged 12.6 ppg and 7.6 rebounds. In SEC play, she's raised her numbers to 13.7 ppg and 10.2 rpg, but her block average has dipped to 1.9 bpg. A a result, her fouls were 2.6 per game prior to SEC play, but has dropped to 1.8 per game since, which is remarkable when you consider how physical the SEC typically is.
Perhaps Key should focus more on not so much going after shots as much as just presenting herself as a presence - she's tall with great length, and has other long players on her team playing alongside her: focus more on controlled team defense, distract opponents, and let her teammates clean up. She'll perhaps reduce the fouls and stay on the floor longer in games.
The Arkansas game for South Carolina is one to watch here, IMO. The Gamecocks narrowly beat the Hogs in Colonial Life Arena earlier in the season 91-82: the Gamecocks were able to score pretty much at will thanks to Boston dominating the glass - she had 25 rebounds in the game, and the Gamecocks out-rebounded the Hogs 63-33 overall. Arkansas won't provide much of a challenge in the paint, but they are a strong offensive team and shoot the ball well from the perimeter. Strong games from the 3-pt. arc and the FT line by the Gamecocks helped their cause in the 1st game. Boston being available for the game is still a question, and Amihere will still be in Ostend, Belgium with the rest of her Canadian National Team.
The Gamecocks were up by 21 pts at the start of the 4th Qtr., and Staley usually tends to bring in her bench in those occasions and she did, and they extended the lead to 25 early on on back-to-back scores from Amihere. Then Alexis Tolefree hits 4 of her 5 3-pt. shots from there on, score 14 of her 22 pts for the game, and the Hogs out-score the Gamecocks 29-17 to make the final score close. That's how explosive the Razorbacks are offensively.
If Howard doesn't play it will hobble Kentucky at home against Alabama, but the Tide have yet to beat a Q1 opponent in 6 tries, and UK is always tough at home. I think the Wildcats win this.
Missouri almost escaped with a upset win over Arkansas at home, and UGA has played both Texas A&M and Mississippi St. tight before losing on the road their last 2 games. This game will be in Athens, and I think UGA wins this....
