If the AP Top 25 is a good barometer for seeding, we could be in very good standing for a #2 seed if we continue to take care of business. We have a pretty good shot at controlling our destiny for #2 which is the 5-8 rankings. We are currently #8 and will have at least one game with #6 South Carolina not to mention games against ranked teams like UK, Vandy, and LSU plus the tournament to further help the resume IF we manage wins.
There is some bad news out of our control for the #1 seeds, though. UCONN and Stanford through both their results and schedule rest of the way would have to have an epic meltdown to lose a #1 seed imo. UCONN has the talent to keep their ranking even if their conference schedule was tougher. I personally think Stanford would lose at least a game or two more if they were in either the SEC or ACC, but they aren't so it doesn't matter. Notre Dame has some tough games left, but they have surprised me and look poised to win them. I expected them to have to rebuild at least some from last year after losing Diggins, but they apparently just reloaded. I think having UCONN in their conference these last several years really paid dividends for them and toughened them up a lot and helped them grow and mature faster than they might have in another, weaker conference. Bottom line is that they would have to under perform to lose a #1 seed and anyone who beats them in the ACC will really have their stock rise.
Louisville is in line to get a #1 seed and they DO have at least two games and likely 3 with UCONN they should lose BUT if they don't lose to anyone else, which seems very probably with a weak conference schedule remaining, then they may not get punished enough for losing to UCONN to drop in the rankings. Perhaps if they got decimated in one or all three, they could slip some. But, if they even managed just one victory, it would likely seal them as a #1.
Duke, Baylor, and South Carolina are the other obstacles at the moment.
- Duke has several tough games remaining and some opportunity to slip. I don't think it's a given that they will, just possible with another Notre Dame game looming, two games with UNC, one against Maryland, one against NC State, and then the tournament against any combination of those. I personally don't think they are #1 material and see them losing some of those games and slipping to #2 before it's over, but they control their destiny at the moment.
- Baylor has the advantage of schedule in their favor. They are favored the rest of the way. However, IF we take care of business, I think we could leap frog them if we post some impressive victories against teams like South Carolina or win the SEC tournament. Also, I think Baylor hasn't been tested in their OOC and their 16 point loss to unranked Kansas loom over their head, too. So, even though the schedule looks favorable, it's not automatic either.
- South Carolina has to play us once possibly twice plus the other SEC foes that could potentially take them down at any time as TAM already has. But, technically, they are more in control of their destiny than we are at the moment.
For the Lady Vols, even though the path to #1 is narrow, the ONLY way it's possible I think is with a little help AND by running the table, which is no easy feat with 4 ranked games on the schedule plus the tournament, but that would be quite a resume to end the season on - 14 game winning streak against likely 8 ranked teams along the way.
There is some room I think to still get a #2 seed and lose a game or two the rest of the way, but they can't be first round SEC tournament losses or blowouts to inferior teams in the regular season. They need to be something like close game in the SEC final losses or close game on the road against ranked team type losses.
TLDR
Good news: Lady vols are largely in control of their destiny for #2 seed and possibly #1 with some help
Bad news: Lady vols have one of the toughest schedules remaining and no wiggle room to get a #1 and not a lot for #2 either
There is some bad news out of our control for the #1 seeds, though. UCONN and Stanford through both their results and schedule rest of the way would have to have an epic meltdown to lose a #1 seed imo. UCONN has the talent to keep their ranking even if their conference schedule was tougher. I personally think Stanford would lose at least a game or two more if they were in either the SEC or ACC, but they aren't so it doesn't matter. Notre Dame has some tough games left, but they have surprised me and look poised to win them. I expected them to have to rebuild at least some from last year after losing Diggins, but they apparently just reloaded. I think having UCONN in their conference these last several years really paid dividends for them and toughened them up a lot and helped them grow and mature faster than they might have in another, weaker conference. Bottom line is that they would have to under perform to lose a #1 seed and anyone who beats them in the ACC will really have their stock rise.
Louisville is in line to get a #1 seed and they DO have at least two games and likely 3 with UCONN they should lose BUT if they don't lose to anyone else, which seems very probably with a weak conference schedule remaining, then they may not get punished enough for losing to UCONN to drop in the rankings. Perhaps if they got decimated in one or all three, they could slip some. But, if they even managed just one victory, it would likely seal them as a #1.
Duke, Baylor, and South Carolina are the other obstacles at the moment.
- Duke has several tough games remaining and some opportunity to slip. I don't think it's a given that they will, just possible with another Notre Dame game looming, two games with UNC, one against Maryland, one against NC State, and then the tournament against any combination of those. I personally don't think they are #1 material and see them losing some of those games and slipping to #2 before it's over, but they control their destiny at the moment.
- Baylor has the advantage of schedule in their favor. They are favored the rest of the way. However, IF we take care of business, I think we could leap frog them if we post some impressive victories against teams like South Carolina or win the SEC tournament. Also, I think Baylor hasn't been tested in their OOC and their 16 point loss to unranked Kansas loom over their head, too. So, even though the schedule looks favorable, it's not automatic either.
- South Carolina has to play us once possibly twice plus the other SEC foes that could potentially take them down at any time as TAM already has. But, technically, they are more in control of their destiny than we are at the moment.
For the Lady Vols, even though the path to #1 is narrow, the ONLY way it's possible I think is with a little help AND by running the table, which is no easy feat with 4 ranked games on the schedule plus the tournament, but that would be quite a resume to end the season on - 14 game winning streak against likely 8 ranked teams along the way.
There is some room I think to still get a #2 seed and lose a game or two the rest of the way, but they can't be first round SEC tournament losses or blowouts to inferior teams in the regular season. They need to be something like close game in the SEC final losses or close game on the road against ranked team type losses.
TLDR
Good news: Lady vols are largely in control of their destiny for #2 seed and possibly #1 with some help
Bad news: Lady vols have one of the toughest schedules remaining and no wiggle room to get a #1 and not a lot for #2 either
