Seed Watch!

#27
#27
clkou said:
If the AP Top 25 is a good barometer for seeding, we could be in very good standing for a #2 seed if we continue to take care of business. We have a pretty good shot at controlling our destiny for #2 which is the 5-8 rankings. We are currently #8 and will have at least one game with #6 South Carolina not to mention games against ranked teams like UK, Vandy, and LSU plus the tournament to further help the resume IF we manage wins.

There is some bad news out of our control for the #1 seeds, though. UCONN and Stanford through both their results and schedule rest of the way would have to have an epic meltdown to lose a #1 seed imo. UCONN has the talent to keep their ranking even if their conference schedule was tougher. I personally think Stanford would lose at least a game or two more if they were in either the SEC or ACC, but they aren't so it doesn't matter. Notre Dame has some tough games left, but they have surprised me and look poised to win them. I expected them to have to rebuild at least some from last year after losing Diggins, but they apparently just reloaded. I think having UCONN in their conference these last several years really paid dividends for them and toughened them up a lot and helped them grow and mature faster than they might have in another, weaker conference. Bottom line is that they would have to under perform to lose a #1 seed and anyone who beats them in the ACC will really have their stock rise.

Louisville is in line to get a #1 seed and they DO have at least two games and likely 3 with UCONN they should lose BUT if they don't lose to anyone else, which seems very probably with a weak conference schedule remaining, then they may not get punished enough for losing to UCONN to drop in the rankings. Perhaps if they got decimated in one or all three, they could slip some. But, if they even managed just one victory, it would likely seal them as a #1.

Duke, Baylor, and South Carolina are the other obstacles at the moment.

- Duke has several tough games remaining and some opportunity to slip. I don't think it's a given that they will, just possible with another Notre Dame game looming, two games with UNC, one against Maryland, one against NC State, and then the tournament against any combination of those. I personally don't think they are #1 material and see them losing some of those games and slipping to #2 before it's over, but they control their destiny at the moment.

- Baylor has the advantage of schedule in their favor. They are favored the rest of the way. However, IF we take care of business, I think we could leap frog them if we post some impressive victories against teams like South Carolina or win the SEC tournament. Also, I think Baylor hasn't been tested in their OOC and their 16 point loss to unranked Kansas loom over their head, too. So, even though the schedule looks favorable, it's not automatic either.

- South Carolina has to play us once possibly twice plus the other SEC foes that could potentially take them down at any time as TAM already has. But, technically, they are more in control of their destiny than we are at the moment.

For the Lady Vols, even though the path to #1 is narrow, the ONLY way it's possible I think is with a little help AND by running the table, which is no easy feat with 4 ranked games on the schedule plus the tournament, but that would be quite a resume to end the season on - 14 game winning streak against likely 8 ranked teams along the way.

There is some room I think to still get a #2 seed and lose a game or two the rest of the way, but they can't be first round SEC tournament losses or blowouts to inferior teams in the regular season. They need to be something like close game in the SEC final losses or close game on the road against ranked team type losses.

TLDR
Good news: Lady vols are largely in control of their destiny for #2 seed and possibly #1 with some help
Bad news: Lady vols have one of the toughest schedules remaining and no wiggle room to get a #1 and not a lot for #2 either
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3 of #1 seeds are a cut above the #2 seeds i just don`t see Tenn getting a #1 seed. We are in line to get a #2 But don`t count out West Virginia i watch them against Baylor they are a good basketball team.
 
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#28
#28
My comment will always be - factor in who is on the NCAA selection committee.

Remember Holly commenting that for some reason they switched the process back for host schools for the 16-8 and 8-4 games after stating they would no longer follow that process.

The objective for getting to the final four is relatively simple - continue to win each game you play. If the LVs win their next three games they will be tourney champs, if they then win the next six they will be NCAA champs.
 
#29
#29
So if Louisville loses big tonight and the Lady vols win the sec tournament. Is there any way they should be denied a # 1 seed with there current ranking of # 6?
 
#30
#30
orange plasma said:
So if Louisville loses big tonight and the Lady vols win the sec tournament. Is there any way they should be denied a # 1 seed with there current ranking of # 6?
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There's no logical reason that IF UT won the SEC tournament AND Louisville loses not once but twice and has no regular season or conference tournament title, that UT would be denied a #1 seed. Today, UT passed Maryland in the rankings and Maryland is on a 4 game winning streak, so if Louisville not only loses but loses twice and puts up no impressive wins along the way, then there is no logical way they can justify it.

2014 Women's College Basketball Rankings and Polls for Week 18 - ESPN
 
#31
#31
orange plasma said:
So if Louisville loses big tonight and the Lady vols win the sec tournament. Is there any way they should be denied a # 1 seed with there current ranking of # 6?
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Rumor is that uconn is planning to intentionally lose tonight's game against L'ville.
 
#32
#32
The only thing I enjoy more than a UT win is a UCONN loss, so I hope they follow through :)
 
#33
#33
If our girls can take care of business in sec, the path deep into the NCAA looks a lot clearer. That USC win was huge
 
#34
#34
If we remain a two seed which i hope we don't, the new bracketology i just saw now has us in the same region as Notre Dame and not Stanford's.
 
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#35
#35
Spacejam said:
If we remain a two seed which i hope we don't, the new bracketology i just saw now has us in the same region as Notre Dame and not Stanford's.
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I don't believe the actual finished bracket ever follows the Charlie Creme predictions. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think he is much help. The committee will do something weird whether the LVs win the tourney or not.
 
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#36
#36
Spacejam said:
If we remain a two seed which i hope we don't, the new bracketology i just saw now has us in the same region as Notre Dame and not Stanford's.
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The problem you are referencing is the geographic S-curve. This makes it all the more critical UT zone in--win the SEC convincingly and get some help to secure the last #1 seed. If UT doesn't win the SEC tournament it looks like they will be the first or second 2 seed on the S curve which in all likelihood will send us to Notre Dame. Here's how:

Scenario #1: #6 overall; UL #4 overall; SC #5 overall.
Louisville is a 1 seed on their own court. SC is placed first among 2 seeds and would go to Louisville. UT is next and would go to the next closest location--Notre Dame

Scenario #2: #5 overall; SC #4 overall; UL #6/7/or 8 overall. SC goes to Lincoln as a one seed. UL is placed first among 2 seeds due to hosting. UT goes to next closest location--Notre Dame.

There are three scenarios where UT goes somewhere other than Notre Dame.

Scenario #1 - UT last one seed goes to Lincoln.
Scenario #2 - UT is #5 overall; UL #4 overall, SC #6. In this scenario UL is at home as the one seed. As the next team on the S curve at 5 UT would be sent to Louisville as the 2 seed.
Scenario #3 - UT is the 7th/8th overall seed sending us to Lincoln or Stanford. Not looking likely without a complete implosion in Duluth.
 
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#37
#37
Barring the worst snub in bracket history by the committee, Tennessee should have earned a #1 seed! :)

Now the only questions left are the potential teams to face on the path to a national championship.
 
#40
#40
clkou said:
Barring the worst snub in bracket history by the committee, Tennessee should have earned a #1 seed! :)

Now the only questions left are the potential teams to face on the path to a national championship.
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LV's have been snubbed before. Not sure what the committee's agenda is (MONEY), but I'm surprised most years with some seedings.
 
#41
#41
We've definitely been snubbed before, but this would have to be the worst I'd think if we aren't a #1. It's pretty obvious we should be. Even if Louisville found a way to beat UCONN, what team would they put in front of us? Stanford who lost in their semi-finals to unranked USC? Duke who was ranked #10 in the AP and loses to every good team they face. Definitely can't put in South Carolina or any SEC team in front of us. Baylor and West Virginia ARE and have been ranked behind us pretty much all or most of the year.

Humor me. Which team gets a #1 over us?
 
#42
#42
Here's how I think the top #3 seeds should shake out:

#1's
UCONN
Notre Dame
Tennessee
Louisville

#2's
Stanford
Winner of West Virginia/Baylor
Duke
South Carolina

#3's
UK
Loser of West Virginia/Baylor
Maryland
North Carolina
 
#43
#43
clkou said:
Here's how I think the top #3 seeds should shake out:

#1's
UCONN
Notre Dame
Tennessee
Louisville

#2's
Stanford
Winner of West Virginia/Baylor
Duke
South Carolina

#3's
UK
Loser of West Virginia/Baylor
Maryland
North Carolina
Click to expand...

In your bracket we'd get WV/Baylor. Simms is going to be a tough out and the way WV is playing now not going to be easy. I guess none of them are.
 
#44
#44
Any team, if they play well and we don't, can cause us problems. Baylor lost to Kentucky and unranked Kansas. West Virginia lost to unranked Ohio State and Texas. Neither one of them have what I consider signature wins, so I would not be particularly worried about them versus any other team like Stanford, Duke, South Carolina, or whoever.

The rankings just came out: 2014 Women's College Basketball Rankings and Polls for Week 19 - ESPN - I was halfway wondering if we would manage to jump Louisville based on winning the tough SEC tournament, but no dice unfortunately. If Louisville loses to UCONN, we damn well better then :p

It'll be interesting to see if West Virginia manages to win and Louisville loses by 15 to 20 or more points if the committee would give West Virginia the last #1. It's definitely worthy of conversation. Either way, I'd argue that they should both be in the same bracket so it's effectively a wash. The last #1 in should play the first one out, but they may not do that due to geography and all that jazz.

But, using the AP as a guide, it's definitely lining up very closely to what I posted above and the rankings weren't out when I posted mine.
 
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#45
#45
Is there a possibility that WVU could jump us and not Louisville if WVU wins due to the fact that UL would have lost to UCONN
 
#46
#46
Theoretically anything is possible, but I don't see how it could logically happen because #1 the SEC tournament title means a helluva lot more than the Big 12. We bested 3 other top 15 teams to win that title plus another likely 1 to 4 teams that'll be in the NCAA tournament. If West Virginia wins, they will have only bested 1 top 15 team - a team they were already ranked ahead of. #2, we are ahead of West Virginia and have been all year long - something drastic, like us losing, should have to happen for them to pass us. There's no way they should pass us up after WINNING all these games and getting an SEC tournament championship.

Now, you could make a case for Louisville to drop out if they lose badly to UCONN, but we should definitely pass Louisville, too, should they lose. We are just one rank behind them and have a tournament title. They would be going into the tournament on a loss and no tournament or regular season title plus their loss to Kentucky, too.
 
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#47
#47
As of today, Charlie Creme has Tennessee as #1 seed in the Louisville bracket. Uconn has been moved to #1 in Lincoln. This sets up a uconn TN final if uconn can get there and TN can get past (most likely opponents) North Carolina, Tex A&M, USC again, Louisville, and Notre Dame. Bracketology - Women's College Basketball Brackets and Predictions - ESPN
I think this is the most likely scenario the committee will come up with.
 
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#48
#48
That could happen, but anything could happen. Charlie Creme has not been know for his accuracy. I have a hard time seeing Stanford as a #1. Louisville has been ranked ahead of them since Stanford lost to unranked Washington on February 9th. Stanford just lost AGAIN in the semi-finals to unranked USC. Louisville did lose last night but in the finals of their conference tournament, not the semi-finals, and to a team ranked higher than them, not an unranked team. I'd be shocked if Louisville didn't get the #1 and Stanford DID. I'd give it to Baylor before I'd give it to Stanford.

We should be the #3 overall seed since Louisville lost by 20 last night plus struggled against unranked South Florida in their semi-final game and have no conference or tournament title going into post season. Who they put in our bracket as potential #16, #8, #4, and #2 seeded match-ups remains to be seen, but I'm really proud of the Lady Vols for pulling it together at the right time. Who would have thought after Notre Dame we could still lose another game AND be the 3rd ranked team in the country? I just really hope they keep it rolling in the tournament and don't allow themselves to be satisfied.
 
#49
#49
clkou said:
That could happen, but anything could happen. Charlie Creme has not been know for his accuracy.
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What makes you say Creme has not been known for his accuracy? Most people say he has been quite accurate. Agreeing with, or liking his picks, well, that's another thing.
 
#50
#50
I haven't saved the data, but I just remember several things over the years he "predicted" that didn't come close to being true. He probably does get a lot of it right, but the obvious stuff like UCONN is a #1 seed and some team with a losing record that managed to win their conference tournament is a #16 seed. Picking Stanford over Louisville for the last #1, even if it happens (in which case I'll have even less respect for the committee, too), shows me he doesn't exactly know his stuff.

I mean, what do YOU think? Do you think Stanford deserves a #1 over Louisville or Baylor? If so, why? At the end of the day it ultimately doesn't matter what Charlie or us thinks, so I wouldn't use Charlie's predictions as anything other than just another opinion.
 
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