Sharks

#5
#5
Hmmm....that's interesting....I didn't see any scientist actually quoted in the article saying that global warming was to blame...but the author sure did make it seem that way (maybe that's what the guy at UF said...but somehow I doubt he really believes it)
 
#6
#6
the science behind this is actually fairly sound. Warmer water = more sharks and other sealife in different areas.
 
#7
#7
TennTradition said:
Hmmm....that's interesting....I didn't see any scientist actually quoted in the article saying that global warming was to blame...but the author sure did make it seem that way (maybe that's what the guy at UF said...but somehow I doubt he really believes it)
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I think it is more of a theory than anything else. I am not a marine biologist, but it makes sense.
 
#9
#9
This sure makes a lot of sense, and it's straight from the cited article:

The one thing that's affecting shark attacks more than anything else is human activity,' said Dr George Burgess of Florida University, a shark expert who maintains the database. 'As the population continues to rise, so does the number of people in the water for recreation. And as long as we have an increase in human hours in the water, we will have an increase in shark bites.'

Entirely too logical and doesn't advance the AGW agenda. In fact, the lack of warming (not one year since '98 has been hotter than '98) has been a real problem for the AGW crowd. And as for warming oceans:

Perhaps The Climate Change Models Are Wrong
 
#10
#10
1998 was an insane anomaly....however, I would say that in the next 10-15 years we will see a year hotter.

...as for you point about the UF scientist..I agree...that comment made the most sense out of the entire article.
 
#11
#11
emainvol said:
the science behind this is actually fairly sound. Warmer water = more sharks and other sealife in different areas.
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Yeah...but that just doesn't make sense to me. Water near the shore is going to be warmer than other water. So, it is hard for me to see any warming as a driving force for bringing more sharks further toward shore...the logic just doesn't make sense to me.
 
#12
#12
hndog609 said:
This sure makes a lot of sense, and it's straight from the cited article:

The one thing that's affecting shark attacks more than anything else is human activity,' said Dr George Burgess of Florida University, a shark expert who maintains the database. 'As the population continues to rise, so does the number of people in the water for recreation. And as long as we have an increase in human hours in the water, we will have an increase in shark bites.'

Entirely too logical and doesn't advance the AGW agenda. In fact, the lack of warming (not one year since '98 has been hotter than '98) has been a real problem for the AGW crowd. And as for warming oceans:

Perhaps The Climate Change Models Are Wrong
Click to expand...

I have no idea what oceans are doing...but here is another example of what can be found out there....

Ocean warming threatens Antarctic wildlife | Environment | The Guardian
 
#13
#13
TennTradition said:
Yeah...but that just doesn't make sense to me. Water near the shore is going to be warmer than other water. So, it is hard for me to see any warming as a driving force for bringing more sharks further inland...the logic just doesn't make sense to me.
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Well if you buy into the argument that warmer water further from shore is bringing more sharks to the area, wouldn't more of them venture closer to shore? Theoretically speaking of course.
 
#15
#15
emainvol said:
Well if you buy into the argument that warmer water further from shore is bringing more sharks to the area, wouldn't more of them venture closer to shore? Theoretically speaking of course.
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Why didn't they just go closer to the shore in the first place? The gradients were likely the same..always warming as you get closer to shore....I just don't see the driving force....
 
#16
#16
TennTradition said:
1998 was an insane anomaly....however, I would say that in the next 10-15 years we will see a year hotter.
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Exactly. I honestly hate when people take a small sample, in this case one year, or when people scoff at the idea of global warming because it snowed in Iraq or whatever. You have to look at data over several years, even decades.

What I am saying is, there is way too many people saying that global warming is a fact, the problem most people are having with it is that people are being blamed for causing it. There is the real debate behind the issue. Are we, in effect, speeding up the warming cycle, or is this just natural?

I hope in my ramblings I touched on what you were saying.
 
#18
#18
For those interested in ocean water and hurricane activity, here's an interesting interview with Kerry Emanuel, who is oft cited as a source for supporting the idea that climate change leads to stronger hurricanes. He has never suggested that climate change leads to more hurricanes, but his 2005 Nature article did suggest that climate change leads to stronger hurricanes. His most recent paper on the subject suggests that the matter may be more complicated. I particularly love his comments on the blogs (from both perspectives on the issue).

Seafoam hits fan over hurricane research - MIT News Office
 
#19
#19
VolinArizona said:
The ocean temperature dropped the last year, yes?
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I would think that the global ocean temperatures have dropped in the last year just because global air temperatures have dropped in the last year (at least I think they did...). The ocean is slow to respond to atmospheric temperature, though - so it might not be the case. Also, I would say that local ocean temperatures are more important than global ocean temperatures for a discussion like this. With that said, I'm still not sure I would buy the global warming=more sharks near shore argument ... and I'm still not sure that this scientist made that connection explicitly.
 
#20
#20
#21
#21
emainvol said:
Exactly. I honestly hate when people take a small sample, in this case one year, or when people scoff at the idea of global warming because it snowed in Iraq or whatever. You have to look at data over several years, even decades.

What I am saying is, there is way too many people saying that global warming is a fact, the problem most people are having with it is that people are being blamed for causing it. There is the real debate behind the issue. Are we, in effect, speeding up the warming cycle, or is this just natural?

I hope in my ramblings I touched on what you were saying.
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That is without a doubt the central point of the climate debate. And...taking single data points doesn't help further understanding in the least. However, a 10 year span would seem to be long enough to develop trends...and the earth has cooled since 1998. BUT....if you look at the data you can see 1998 was a crazy anomaly and the general trend has continued for the most part....once you smooth out the peak near 1998-2000 with time averaging. I'm not sure what was responsible for that peak.
 
#22
#22
hndog609 said:
And then there's this:

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

I'm really interested how they seem to make very sure you understand any cooling is natural variation but any warming is always anthropogenic. There's going to spin galore on this one, both sides I'm sure.
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I would have to say that two of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate models are 1) cloud formation and 2) ocean currents. They are both very important and I wonder how accurately they are able to get them. We know that CO2 causes warming...I'm not going to debate that....but how much is dependent upon factors such as the two I listed above. I think that the 2nd factor tends to be averaged out more on a global scale, so it doesn't affect global warming trends as much. But - it certainly affects regional weather, which is all that many seem to concern themselves with (which is understandable). The first, cloud formation, is a big issue...it's a global issue...and is very important to get right...or as right as we can.
 
#23
#23
TennTradition said:
I would have to say that two of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate models are 1) cloud formation and 2) ocean currents. They are both very important and I wonder how accurately they are able to get them. We know that CO2 causes warming...I'm not going to debate that....but how much is dependent upon factors such as the two I listed above. I think that the 2nd factor tends to be averaged out more on a global scale, so it doesn't affect global warming trends as much. But - it certainly affects regional weather, which is all that many seem to concern themselves with (which is understandable). The first, cloud formation, is a big issue...it's a global issue...and is very important to get right...or as right as we can.
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Here's a brief and interesting nugget on clouds.

Clouds Mitigate Global Warming, New Evidence Shows - by Steven Milloy - The Heartland Institute

One of the big complaints leveled against the modelers has been the dearth of accurate cloud/precip data. Should be an interesting year in the climate wars.
 
#24
#24
hndog609 said:
Here's a brief and interesting nugget on clouds.

Clouds Mitigate Global Warming, New Evidence Shows - by Steven Milloy - The Heartland Institute

One of the big complaints leveled against the modelers has been the dearth of accurate cloud/precip data. Should be an interesting year in the climate wars.
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It's certainly an area of on-going work. I'm not certain because I'm not in this field, but I think that it is probably the most active research field with regard to physical refinement of climate models. If we can better model the affects of clouds, uncertainties are going to come way down and we will have a much better idea of what we are facing.
 
#25
#25
emainvol said:
the science behind this is actually fairly sound. Warmer water = more sharks and other sealife in different areas.
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If warmer water was to blame the sharks would be further offshore where colder currents flow. They certainly would not be on the warmer beaches where surfers and swimmers hang out. Now if you were to blame it on fewer food sources then you might have something.
 
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