I think Louisville actually has the easiest road of any "legitimate" contender. Louisville will probably be favored by at least 7 points in every matchup, and they don't have games against teams like Michigan, Northwestern and Wisconsin... plus, don't have a conference title game. If Louisville starts out Top 10, it'd be hard to keep them out of the BCS title game unless two teams ranked above them to start the season are also undefeated (which, of course, is entirely possible).
I think Stanford wins it all, though.
If UofL goes 12-0, they should still not get in. Their conference is a BCS league by contract and not by worth, and their non-conference schedule is Ohio/EKU/@UK/FIU. So, the Cards did absolutely nothing out of conference to beef up the weak slate. A 10-3 SEC Champion should get in over 12-0 UofL. I watched the Sugar Bowl, but that should have no bearing on next year's NC game. You have to earn it on the field, and the Cards have no opportunities to do that.
That said, after they begin playing in the ACC, they'll be NC-eligible again, IMO.
Louisville Football Official Schedule - Louisville Cardinals Official Athletic Site
If UofL goes 12-0, they should still not get in. Their conference is a BCS league by contract and not by worth, and their non-conference schedule is Ohio/EKU/@UK/FIU. So, the Cards did absolutely nothing out of conference to beef up the weak slate. A 10-3 SEC Champion should get in over 12-0 UofL. I watched the Sugar Bowl, but that should have no bearing on next year's NC game. You have to earn it on the field, and the Cards have no opportunities to do that.
That said, after they begin playing in the ACC, they'll be NC-eligible again, IMO.
Louisville Football Official Schedule - Louisville Cardinals Official Athletic Site
I understand what you're saying, but this is still a BCS conference team. I'm sure that, at some point, Louisville will end up playing a ranked team... and destroy them.
If there are three undefeated teams at the end of the season, two of which from superior conferences, have Louisville on the outside looking in. That makes perfect sense. I can even see the argument for a one-loss SEC or Pac 12 team jumping the Cardinals, though I don't agree with it. 3 losses, though? A 3-loss SEC team doesn't deserve a national title bid.
I don't know if you're trying to be smart or "smart," but that was just an honest question of mine; no harm intended. I hate Georgia too. Alabama has enjoyed far more success though than Georgia has ever thought about, and certainly you all have the upper hand in titles on them. If I were Florida, I wouldn't hardly even give Georgia any consideration, unless I lived on the border. Maybe you do.
A 3-loss SEC team won't make it either, but they'll have more good wins than UofL.