We've talked about this before but, it's not about home state talent, it's the coach. If the coaching is poor the in state recruits will go elsewhere.
The problem is that none of the states close enough for this to count for very much have schools with poor coaching: NC, SC, KY, AR, MS, LA, TX, OK, OH, VA, GA, AL, FL... Which of those states do not have quality coaches at their flagship school(s)?
LSU went from '88 to '95 with no bowl games and '88 to '01 with no SEC titles, didn't matter about instate talent because the coaching was poor.
Exactly! But the talent with a lifelong desire to play at LSU was still there.
Why? Poor coaching, the instate talent went elsewhere because of coaching. With Dubose, Fran and Shula it didn't matter they had more instate talent than UT.
What aren't you getting? My whole point was that the instate talent would continue to go to those schools... and largely did... even through a succession of bad coaches. When a good coach arrived, the talent was there waiting and very willing to sign on.
UT's next coach will either be a smooth transition or else will have to come out of the blocks beating everyone around. If that doesn't happen, they aren't going to raid the states I listed for top shelf talent. There isn't enough top shelf talent in TN to keep the program viable for the guy who follows the first replacement.
Every school is at equal risk regardless of instate talent.
Sorry but that's simply not supported by reality. Georgia kids grow up dreaming of playing for the Dawgs. Some of them might go elsewhere when a bad coach is in place but all other things being equal... that's their first choice. Tn's lack of instate talent leaves them completely dependent on drawing nationally. Dip or have a perception that a new coach won't survive... that hope goes by the way side.
If you get the right guy he will get talent. If you pick the wrong guy like 'Bama and LSU for so many years it will set your program back even if you have more talent in state than Tennessee.
You are missing the point though you keep shooting all around it. LSU now gets out of state talent to compliment instate talent... but that wasn't required for a new coach to come in and turn the program around. There were enough loyal Tigers from instate to do it. If UT loses its national credibility with its first hire, they simply don't have that home base.
Fulmer's replacement has to be a home run choice.