Social Security - your thoughts?

#451
#451
lawgator1 said:
You continue to miss the forest for the trees.

I am not saying you are wrong about averages and what is likely.

I'm saying that some people, along the way, will retire at a very bad time to rely on those assets. Consider people retiring in 2008-09. The market lost just over 50% of its value.

Folks getting SS got the same they got the year before and the next year. Had those folks been dependent on income from the privatized platform you speak of, the result might have been disastrous for them.
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Key word MIGHT. Chances are slim.
 
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#452
#452
lawgator1 said:
You continue to miss the forest for the trees.

I am not saying you are wrong about averages and what is likely.

I'm saying that some people, along the way, will retire at a very bad time to rely on those assets. Consider people retiring in 2008-09. The market lost just over 50% of its value.

Folks getting SS got the same they got the year before and the next year. Had those folks been dependent on income from the privatized platform you speak of, the result might have been disastrous for them.
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I don't know if you know this. but people actually did retire relying on that private retirement fund during 2008 and 2009. How? Because when you get close to retirement your money isn't tied up in the market aspects that took a 50% loss.

even IF you had a 50% loss, you would have more money in that private account than you would ever get from SS. 160k up to 490k, even down 50% is still more than you invested, and more than SS would give you. you would still have 245k in the retirement fund. and you aren't going to spend 245k in retirement in 2 years.

once you retire, the money stays on the market. even in 2008, down for 2 years, and then up for 5 years, and back to where it was by the 6th. unless you intend your retirement funds to run out in 5 years, even in your doomsday scenario, you would still have money on the market.
 
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#454
#454
I have a stock that I have had for close to 30 years. It was when I worked for a large multi-national company. The had 100% matching I think up to 5%. They matched in their stock. The stock paid a dividend but I never had them reinvest the dividend into more stock. I let the cash accumulate and when I had $5 or $10K I would buy another stock or mutual fund. I never have sold that stock and I still own the same amount (it has split a couple of times but I'm not counting that). The stock also has spun off smaller companies, twice, and I received shares equal to the number of shares of the parent company in one case and 1/2 the number of shares in the other company. I think when I left the company I had roughly $25,000. That stock and the two spin offs are now worth a little over $100,000. That's with no dividend reinvestment into those stocks. It would be hard for me to calculate the total including the dividends but I've purchased numerous stocks and mutual funds along the way.
 
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#455
#455
LouderVol said:
Except pulling out the rug is exactly what SS is doing. benefits are going to go down. what you are afraid of is already my reality.

I want to change that reality, and it gets better FOR EVERYONE.

again I am already doing it. I have already given up on that money. the SS money is money I will never see. that is an active reality for someone my age. all that SS money I have contributed, and will contribute is going to be a loss for my generation and all the generations after. with or without my changes.

the difference is under my system, the loss stops with me, and then people can start gaining. under your system, the loss doesn't stop with me, and no one gains.
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How is it going to get better for someone that has no income except for SS?
 
#461
#461
Unprecedented 50% drop in market.

Precedent of passing away before or soon after retirement.

LG: bUt WhAt AbOuT tHe PeOpLe WhO GeT sCrEwEd?
 
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#462
#462
InVOLuntary said:
How is it going to get better for someone that has no income except for SS?
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because the money in the SS trust fund isn't just disappearing with my scenario. its just getting distributed to privately ran 401k on some type of retirement plan. the distributions would be weighted to how long and how much you have been contributing, with some money still being set aside to the people who are earning already and haven't contributed and also those with in 15 years of retirement.

its a loss, because of the free loaders, but that was already a factor with SS. the difference is those accounts would start to grow, while SS just sits there and hemorrhages.

I have no way to calculate how the payments would compare for those right at the cusp. but I could easily see the distribution being weighted to ensure they get a set amount that would equal SS payments over some set amount of time (life expectancy +5). that would further take away from everyone else, but they would have time for the market to back fill that loss.

going forward your 6.2% (I think i falsely said 6.6% earlier) would go into your account. while your employers 6.2% contribution would go into a common pot that is distributed to the freeloader accounts.

I would also like to see some type of reclamation program on the freeloader accounts. if there is any money left in a freeloader account 2 years after their death, and any outstanding dues are paid, that money goes back into the common pot, and distributed again. can't be passed on to spouse or child. the normal accounts would be passable.
 
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#463
#463
McDad said:
Unprecedented 50% drop in market.

Precedent of passing away before or soon after retirement.

LG: bUt WhAt AbOuT tHe PeOpLe WhO GeT sCrEwEd?
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remember LG is fine with the Government screwing you through SS.

but he isn't fine with you possibly being screwed in a completely fictional situation that has never happened in the history of the market. that is just not allowable.
 
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#464
#464
utvolpj said:
Wait, who makes up the shortfall?

Your second paragraph has been proven false several times on this board. The numbers don't lie
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On average returns, correct.

Why you guys insist on ignoring the bottom runs, I have no idea.
 
#466
#466
LouderVol said:
remember LG is fine with the Government screwing you through SS.

but he isn't fine with you possibly being screwed in a completely fictional situation that has never happened in the history of the market. that is just not allowable.
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The people who retired say, in 2007 would not have been placed in a bad spot, had their retirements been tied to equities or bonds?
 
#467
#467
LouderVol said:
because the money in the SS trust fund isn't just disappearing with my scenario. its just getting distributed to privately ran 401k on some type of retirement plan. the distributions would be weighted to how long and how much you have been contributing, with some money still being set aside to the people who are earning already and haven't contributed and also those with in 15 years of retirement.

its a loss, because of the free loaders, but that was already a factor with SS. the difference is those accounts would start to grow, while SS just sits there and hemorrhages.

I have no way to calculate how the payments would compare for those right at the cusp. but I could easily see the distribution being weighted to ensure they get a set amount that would equal SS payments over some set amount of time (life expectancy +5). that would further take away from everyone else, but they would have time for the market to back fill that loss.

going forward your 6.2% (I think i falsely said 6.6% earlier) would go into your account. while your employers 6.2% contribution would go into a common pot that is distributed to the freeloader accounts.

I would also like to see some type of reclamation program on the freeloader accounts. if there is any money left in a freeloader account 2 years after their death, and any outstanding dues are paid, that money goes back into the common pot, and distributed again. can't be passed on to spouse or child. the normal accounts would be passable.
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I would have to see valid numbers for that scenario. Plus good luck on getting that fund away from the feds. 😅
 
#469
#469
lawgator1 said:
On average returns, correct.

Why you guys insist on ignoring the bottom runs, I have no idea.
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Because no one is that exposed to a bad run when they're approaching retirement or already in it. You also fail to mention what the rebound looked like within 2yrs. They also had way more money in their privatized retirement account than they would in SS.
 
#470
#470
utvolpj said:
Because no one is that exposed to a bad run when they're approaching retirement or already in it. You also fail to mention what the rebound looked like within 2yrs. They also had way more money in their privatized retirement account than they would in SS.
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He's had that explained to him so many times. He's ignoring it. Why? Bc his solution has to be more government. It's all he understands
 
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#472
#472
utvolpj said:
Because no one is that exposed to a bad run when they're approaching retirement or already in it. You also fail to mention what the rebound looked like within 2yrs. They also had way more money in their privatized retirement account than they would in SS.
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Yes rebound that time was 2 years.

That time.

What if you are a low income worker and retire and this happens. Are you just supposed to go, well, never mind, it will bounce back in 2 years??? All the while depleting your remaining basis?
 
#474
#474
lawgator1 said:
Yes rebound that time was 2 years.

That time.

What if you are a low income worker and retire and this happens. Are you just supposed to go, well, never mind, it will bounce back in 2 years??? All the while depleting your remaining basis?
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What if monkeys fly out of your butt? You can what if anything to death so that nothing gets done.

What if the dollar collapses?
 
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#475
#475
Orangeburst said:
Well if you die, do you really think you will care how much you left on the table?
But I get it, if private you could will it to children etc.
As stated I am not advocating SS, just pointing out you typically donr have to live to be 90 to collect.
There is a reason it is going insolvent, which they wouldnt if flush with unpaid benefits. People are exceeding their contributions cause they live longer.
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Yeah, pretty much 100% elimination of things I care about once the bucket is kicked.
 
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