Softball RPI

#53
#53
That road record sticks out. I don't follow softball close enough to know if the RPI is the same or similar calculation as in basketball. Road wins count more. Looks like if the LV could have gotten a couple of more road wins, they would be in better shape. But, they are still in a good spot if they do well in the SECT.
 
#54
#54
WVU05UT09 said:
Occasionally. Tennessee actually has a pretty good record historically on the road in Super Regionals excluding Oklahoma.
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Yep the 2010 team which like I keep saying reminds me of this one was a 15 seed and went on the road and beat a 2 seeded Michigan team....the only super regional team Tennessee struggles with on the road is Oklahoma
 
#55
#55
2Alum4EverVol said:
Missed opportunities, Jeff. TN had some great opportunities to put itself in a little better position heading into the postseason but it is what it is at this point. I believe TN will have to win out to earn the right to host a super regional, but hey put on a great showing in the SECT, play great against (presumably) Florida in the championship game, you never know. Eye test and "last 10" could very well tip the scales in our favor.
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We've certainly had a couple of missed opportunities. I don't think we need to win out though to make the top 8 seeding & host a super regional. Look what happened last season for us as an example. I think it's going to have to be something similar to that happening for us to get there though.

That's make the SECT championship game at least. They have a shot at making it into the top 8 if they do that again this season too.

We have the more favorable bracket to accomplish that too. I also think UF might get upset/knocked out by Bama. I think the SECT championship game could be us vs Bama. In that case, I think we could even win the title. That would guarantee us a top 8 seeding I believe. Even if it's UF & not Bama or some other team if we win the tourney we will get into that top 8.

There's no way they could keep us out. We're already on the verge of the top 10 at #11 so we win it & we're inside that top 8. Probably moving up as high as #6 by winning the title. I'm having wishful thinking here but I trust our girls can get it done. I at least hope we make the championship game.

Then, we would still have a shot at getting into the top 8. The SECT is always tough because this is the best conference by a long shot. We could win it or we could get knocked out early but I don't think that will happen due to our pitching & hitting combined but especially our pitching.
 
#57
#57
2Alum4EverVol said:
Not very often. I suggest you go back and read my post on this very topic:

http://www.volnation.com/forum/tennessee-lady-vols/255405-softball-postseason-tidbits.html
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Good research thanks...there are 5 non SEC teams in the top 8..we know that Oklahoma is good..but I think there is a decent chance that a middle of the road SEC team like UGA, A&M, or Ole Miss might have a chance vs one of the less tested teams..Lady Vols are definitely tested...they have played 4 of the top 5 teams
 
#58
#58
tonybologna said:
We've certainly had a couple of missed opportunities. I don't think we need to win out though to make the top 8 seeding & host a super regional. Look what happened last season for us as an example. I think it's going to have to be something similar to that happening for us to get there though.

That's make the SECT championship game at least. They have a shot at making it into the top 8 if they do that again this season too.

We have the more favorable bracket to accomplish that too. I also think UF might get upset/knocked out by Bama. I think the SECT championship game could be us vs Bama. In that case, I think we could even win the title. That would guarantee us a top 8 seeding I believe. Even if it's UF & not Bama or some other team if we win the tourney we will get into that top 8.

There's no way they could keep us out. We're already on the verge of the top 10 at #11 so we win it & we're inside that top 8. Probably moving up as high as #6 by winning the title. I'm having wishful thinking here but I trust our girls can get it done. I at least hope we make the championship game.

Then, we would still have a shot at getting into the top 8. The SECT is always tough because this is the best conference by a long shot. We could win it or we could get knocked out early but I don't think that will happen due to our pitching & hitting combined but especially our pitching.
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I like the way you're thinking Tony. :) I'd love for Bama to upset Auburn and Florida. Regarding Auburn, they aren't looking very good right now. If Auburn gets knocked out in the quarterfinal by (presumably) Bama, Auburn's record for last 10 games heading into the NCAA tournament will be 5-5 with two lop-sided (run-rule) losses to TN and two bad home losses to A&M mixed in. Not good. Auburn will very likely lose its top 8 national seeding which'll open a door for a team like TN which is currently on the outside looking in to sneak in and grab the vacated spot -- if TN does well in the SECT. In that scenario, I think TN won't even have to win the SECT, but making the championship game may be just sufficient to earn that coveted top 8 national seed. Then again, as you said TN may very well get knocked out on Thursday too.

The only thing certain/fixed to me at this point is that FL is the #1 national seed and Bama a top 8 national seed with Auburn, TN & Mizzou as regional hosts no matter what happens in the SECT. KY, GA, LSU and A&M still have some work left to do. Of course, TN's situation is fluid and dynamic as far as top 8 national seeding is concerned.
 
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#59
#59
2Alum4EverVol said:
Agreed.

The 12th SEC team MS St is currently on the outside looking in (their sub-.500 overall win/loss record is hurting their resume), but they do have a high enough RPI (#34) & SOS (#3) as of now to have a legitimate shot at receiving an at-large bid heading into the final week of regular season play. I won't count them out just yet. Still a lot of games left to play. :) But if they do get swept by Kentucky and loses in the first round of SECT, their bubble will burst for sure.
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It doesn't just hurt their resume, it eliminates them from contention. You have to have a winning record to be selected to the tournament as an at-large team.
 
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#60
#60
DeerPark12 said:
It doesn't just hurt their resume, it eliminates them from contention. You have to have a winning record to be selected to the tournament as an at-large team.
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I thought if MS St could go 2-1 against KY (they got swept by KY), win one non conference game (I think they won the game yesterday) and win a couple of games in the SECT (after all they are playing at home in Starkville), it will get them to .500 record and they may have a shot at an at-large bid. But, now they must win the SECT outright and that's very unlikely. It looks like the SEC will have 11 teams in the NCAA tournament. Story of season for MS St; near misses...
 
#62
#62
#65
#65
I think the coaches poll is probably more reflective of where we would be seeded by the NCAA selection committee right now. If we make it to the SEC championship game I think we could easily move up two spots to an 8 seed. If we're the 8 or 9 seed we'll still probably face the same opponent in the Regional Championship if we make it that far it would just be away if we're the 9 seed.
 
#66
#66
Sandvol said:
I think the coaches poll is probably more reflective of where we would be seeded by the NCAA selection committee right now. If we make it to the SEC championship game I think we could easily move up two spots to an 8 seed. If we're the 8 or 9 seed we'll still probably face the same opponent in the Regional Championship if we make it that far it would just be away if we're the 9 seed.
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Well, we made the top 8 last season by just making it to the SECT championship game. Don't see how that couldn't happen again this season. I even think we were ranked a little lower last season heading into the SECT last season too.

I believe we were around #11 or #12. We're ranked #10 in the polls & #11 in RPI so we're basically in the same situation as last season heading into the SECT. Our goal of course is to win the tourney but just get to the championship game & I think we are in the top 8. We win the tourney title we could go as high as #6 or so.

It doesn't matter as long as we can get into that top 8 because we're so good at home. We need to host for the regionals & super regionals to have the best chance to make it back to the CWS.
 
#67
#67
We just can not lose in the first round and expect to get more than a regional. Championship game loss may be ok but it really boils down to how the other conferences play out I think a couple of those ahead of us don't even have a tournament so they cannot lose much if any ground. I am betting on Erin and hope its Matty with all of her energy!!
 
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#69
#69
FWIW, here's the latest RPI rankings released yesterday:

#1 FL
#2 MI
#3 OU
#4 Bama
#5 AU
#6 FSU
#7 JMU
#8 WA
#9 OR
#10 ULL
#11 LSU
#12 Mizzou
#13 Baylor
#14 Tennessee
#15 UCLA
#16 KY
#17 Texas A&M
#18 Fresno St
#19 GA
#20 MN
#21 South FL
#22 AZ
#23 FL Atlantic
#24 OR St
#25 USC
#30 Ole Miss
#38 MS St
#67 AR
 
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#70
#70
Latest USA Today/NFCA Coaches Poll released today:

#1 FL
#2 MI
#3 OU
#4 OR
#5 AU
#6 Bama
#7 FSU
#8 JMU
#9 ULL
#10 LSU
#11 Tennessee
#12 WA
#13 KY
#14 UCLA
#15 GA
#16 A&M
#17 Mizzou
#18 AZ
#19 MN
#20 Fresno St
#21 Baylor
#22 FL Atlantic
#23 Notre Dame
#24 USF
#25 Utah
 
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#71
#71
So, #14 RPI & #11 poll ranking. I guess they got it right giving us the #13 national seed when you average those 2 out.

Georgia was #19 & #15 respectively so that would be a #17 average. They are just overranked period. Can't argue as much about the RPI though but they still didn't deserve the #16 seed.

Kentucky was #16 & #13 respectively. That doesn't certainly add up to a #9 seed. That's the worse one of them all. The NCAA screwed these seedings up badly.
 
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#72
#72
tonybologna said:
So, #14 RPI & #11 poll ranking. I guess they got it right giving us the #13 national seed when you average those 2 out.

Georgia was #19 & #15 respectively so that would be a #17 average. They are just overranked period. Can't argue as much about the RPI though but they still didn't deserve the #16 seed.

Kentucky was #16 & #13 respectively. That doesn't certainly add up to a #9 seed. That's the worse one of them all. The NCAA screwed these seedings up badly.
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I think we should have been the 12 and Kentucky the 13.
 
#73
#73
Sandvol said:
I think we should have been the 12 and Kentucky the 13.
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I couldn't argue with that analysis but Kentucky should be even lower than #13 if you ask me. I said we could fall to as low as #14 after the Gaffin injury. We weren't far from doing that falling to #13.

But, when you look at the latest RPI's combined with the latest polls you can't argue with us falling down to #13 but Kentucky at #9 is ridiculous no matter how you look at it. I do not understand what the committee was thinking in seeding them that high.
 
#74
#74
tonybologna said:
I couldn't argue with that analysis but Kentucky should be even lower than #13 if you ask me. I said we could fall to as low as #14 after the Gaffin injury. We weren't far from doing that falling to #13.

But, when you look at the latest RPI's combined with the latest polls you can't argue with us falling down to #13 but Kentucky at #9 is ridiculous no matter how you look at it. I do not understand what the committee was thinking in seeding them that high.
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They've got good pitching and had some big wins on the road this year. Our big wins were at home. Probably the difference.
 
#75
#75
Sandvol said:
They've got good pitching and had some big wins on the road this year. Our big wins were at home. Probably the difference.
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Their pitching is no better than ours. You could even say Gabriel & Moss were better than their top 2 pitchers. I haven't checked their road wins but that could have helped them some but I still don't see how they got that #9 seed out of their resume.
 
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