Some Numbers

#26
#26
If a change is made would Larry Simcox make sense? He's considered a quality baseball mind, solid instructor and well known in college baseball recruiting circles. Or would a total clean break be better.
 
#27
#27
BruinVol said:
The only stat the matters is wins and losses and with that you will see a nice step forward this season if we can have a winning week.
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#28
#28
FGT said:
If a change is made would Larry Simcox make sense? He's considered a quality baseball mind, solid instructor and well known in college baseball recruiting circles. Or would a total clean break be better.
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If he had been given the job 6 or 10 years ago, he would have done a much better job than Raleigh and/or Serrano. He understands the SEC, baseball in the Knoxville area and the state of Tennessee. A great baseball mind, motivator, and coach.

While he would be very good choice, the University would not consider him when Hamilton made the greeeaaaatt decision to hire Todd Raleigh because he was part of the regime being ousted. They will follow suit in this hire as well. But, Tennessee Baseball has not even come close the heights they had in the Delmonico/Simcox era.

THIS is Tennessee Baseball
 
#31
#31
BruinVol said:
The only stat the matters is wins and losses and with that you will see a nice step forward this season if we can have a winning week.
Click to expand...

Overall winning percentage is often misleading.

The stat that matters most is wins and losses in conference play.

The best we can do this year is 10-18, which is a winning percentage equal to Raleigh's career conference record.

Another stat that can measure progress is winning percentage against good teams, such as RPI 1-50 teams. Except for 2014, that needle hasn't moved much in the last six years. We lose at least two thirds of games against good teams.

Record against RPI 1-50 teams:

2017: 6-16
2016: 7-14
2015: 6-12
2014: 13-15
2013: 8-22
2012: 5-18
 
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#32
#32
FGT said:
If a change is made would Larry Simcox make sense? He's considered a quality baseball mind, solid instructor and well known in college baseball recruiting circles. Or would a total clean break be better.
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Just don't see that happening.

Time to make a clean break and move on.
 
#34
#34
ShowmeVols said:
Overall winning percentage is often misleading.

The stat that matters most is wins and losses in conference play.

The best we can do this year is 10-18, which is a winning percentage equal to Raleigh's career conference record.

Another stat that can measure progress is winning percentage against good teams, such as RPI 1-50 teams. Except for 2014, that needle hasn't moved much in the last six years. We lose at least two thirds of games against good teams.

Record against RPI 1-50 teams:

2017: 6-16
2016: 7-14
2015: 6-12
2014: 13-15
2013: 8-22
2012: 5-18
Click to expand...

This program had fallen so far it was well below the top 50. I am not arguing we are now even though the RPI says we are but that doesn't mean that is where you measure improvement. We are a 50-100 program so measuring us against that level seems appropriate to me. I would guess we have improved in that area. It's a slow deal for sure I just see young players that are close.
 
#35
#35
I look at it like this...

I don't think CDS is a bad baseball coach, I don't think a bad baseball coach goes to the CWS with two different programs.

We don't have ENOUGH talent. We have ENOUGH talent that we can take care of Mid Week Opponents most of the time. We have ENOUGH talent that we can compete for one game in an SEC Series most of the time and a prime example of that is two fold...Our record suggests that we win at or below 1/3 MOST of the time, so that's one way...the other is to look at our 3 trips to Hoover, all 1 run losses.

The difference is we are throwing the kitchen sink at our opponents, and they may start a mid week guy against us knowing if they have to they can bring in somebody to shut us down and as others have said, they have their eyes on a bigger prize anyway.

Another way is to look at the recruiting classes, look at the rating instead of the rank. For instance, the 2016 class was ranked 14th which sounds great but the AVG. Player Rating was 4.60, lowest of the top 15, but we had a large class of 15. That same year UGA was ranked 3rd with an AVG. Player Ranking of 6.86 with a class of 14.

Still, the recruiting falls on the shoulders of the coaching staff and right now the program is irrelevant. We are losing the top players in the state to other "Baseball" schools. If UK can figure out a way to compete versus Louisville and Ole Miss and Miss. St. can coexist, we should be able do the same with Vandy, whatever their advantages might be. We've got kids from right here in Knoxville/East Tennessee on SEC rosters other than VU and UT.
 
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#36
#36
No Players from Tennessee on the roster for these SEC schools:

UF
UGA
Mizzou
Auburn
TAMU
LSU

Arkansas has 1 player from Tennessee a Frosh, 16 AB, 0 Hits

SC has 2 players, Wil Crowe is the Friday Night Starter

UK Has 2 Players, Cottam is a starting catcher....

Bama has 3 players, none in the starting Line Up this past Sunday...

MSU has 3 players, one in the starting line-up...

Ole Miss has 4 players, one in the starting rotation...

That's a total of 15 players from the state of Tennessee and only a few of them are seeing significant action.

That Leaves Vandy and Tennessee, each with 11 players on the rosters.

VU's Starting Line Up this past Sunday plus the weekend rotation:

Toffey, Massachusets

Coleman, Illinois

Kendall, Wisconsin

Infante, Florida

Hayes, Tennessee (Walters State/JC)

Paul, Washington

Delay, Georgia

Belday, Florida

Kaiser, Kansas

(P) Day, Ohio
(P) Wright, Alabama
(P) Raby, Tennessee

They have just as many guys from Florida as they do Tennessee in the line up...just as Tennessee has just as many guys from Virginia (3) as they do from Tennessee.

I'll spare you the whole Tn. Line-up...Ammons, Rodgers are everyday guys and Martin is in the weekend rotation, those are the every day/week guys from the state of Tennessee...so throughout the whole league this past week, roughly 10 guys, certainly less than 20 guys saw significant action in the 14 team League that hail from the Volunteer State.

The thought that there's a dearth of home state talent seems to be a bit of a myth. In fact, in terms of pitching it seems like the exact opposite. In terms of elite arms...We're talking about Crowe, Raby maybe Lingo will get there...who else?

For years I'd kind of bought into the, we aren't even offering so and so and kind of extrapolated that there's all these Tennessee kids we are missing out on...I wish I would have looked at this a long time ago, it's simply not true.

On the rosters of the 14 SEC schools there are 10 freshmen in the league from the state of Tennessee in 2017, 5 of them are on UT's roster. 2 on Vandy's, 1 at Ole Miss, 1 at Arky, 1 at Bama...

That's it.
 
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#37
#37
vol66 said:
No Players from Tennessee on the roster for these SEC schools:

UF
UGA
Mizzou
Auburn
TAMU
LSU

Arkansas has 1 player from Tennessee a Frosh, 16 AB, 0 Hits

SC has 2 players, Wil Crowe is the Friday Night Starter

UK Has 2 Players, Cottam is a starting catcher....

Bama has 3 players, none in the starting Line Up this past Sunday...

MSU has 3 players, one in the starting line-up...

Ole Miss has 4 players, one in the starting rotation...

That's a total of 15 players from the state of Tennessee and only a few of them are seeing significant action.

That Leaves Vandy and Tennessee, each with 11 players on the rosters.

VU's Starting Line Up this past Sunday plus the weekend rotation:

Toffey, Massachusets

Coleman, Illinois

Kendall, Wisconsin

Infante, Florida

Hayes, Tennessee (Walters State/JC)

Paul, Washington

Delay, Georgia

Belday, Florida

Kaiser, Kansas

(P) Day, Ohio
(P) Wright, Alabama
(P) Raby, Tennessee

They have just as many guys from Florida as they do Tennessee in the line up...just as Tennessee has just as many guys from Virginia (3) as they do from Tennessee.

I'll spare you the whole Tn. Line-up...Ammons, Rodgers are everyday guys and Martin is in the weekend rotation, those are the every day/week guys from the state of Tennessee...so throughout the whole league this past week, roughly 10 guys, certainly less than 20 guys saw significant action in the 14 team League that hail from the Volunteer State.

The thought that there's a dearth of home state talent seems to be a bit of a myth. In fact, in terms of pitching it seems like the exact opposite. In terms of elite arms...We're talking about Crowe, Raby maybe Lingo will get there...who else?

For years I'd kind of bought into the, we aren't even offering so and so and kind of extrapolated that there's all these Tennessee kids we are missing out on...I wish I would have looked at this a long time ago, it's simply not true.

On the rosters of the 14 SEC schools there are 10 freshmen in the league from the state of Tennessee in 2017, 5 of them are on UT's roster. 2 on Vandy's, 1 at Ole Miss, 1 at Arky, 1 at Bama...

That's it.
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Great research. For comparison's sake I dug out a couple of old media guides and looked at the roster composition.

In 1993, which was Delmonico's first regional club and SEC tournament champs, the Vols had 17 of 31 players from Tennessee. In 2004, also a regional club, the Vols had 12 players from Tennessee.
 
#38
#38
Just another bunch of numbers...

If we had gone 3-3 the first two weeks of SEC play instead of 0-6...I know that's a big IF, but not unreasonable...

And everything else played out exactly as it has, we would have been 10-12 going into the series with UK...

After that series we would have been 10-15 with Mizzou next up...the possibility of finishing close to .500 and a possible NCAA Tourny Bid would have been within reach...

That is a bummer...
 
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#39
#39
vol66 said:
Just another bunch of numbers...

If we had gone 3-3 the first two weeks of SEC play instead of 0-6...I know that's a big IF, but not unreasonable...

And everything else played out exactly as it has, we would have been 10-12 going into the series with UK...

After that series we would have been 10-15 with Mizzou next up...the possibility of finishing close to .500 and a possible NCAA Tourny Bid would have been within reach...

That is a bummer...
Click to expand...

I have not stopped thinking about the first three series all season. Another scenario, win one game each in the first two series and win the series against GA as we should have.

But, if ifs and buts were candies and nuts we'd all have a merry Christmas.
 
#43
#43
Backwards K said:
As Bill Parcells always said, "you are what your record says you are."
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And I've found that to be true because usually for every "what if" that is potentially positive, there is a "what if" that is potentially negative.

An example in this case is that Tennessee won 3 extra inning games
 
#44
#44
99gator said:
And I've found that to be true because usually for every "what if" that is potentially positive, there is a "what if" that is potentially negative.

An example in this case is that Tennessee won 3 extra inning games
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Exactly. That's why the "what if" game is usually pointless.
 
#45
#45
CDS is a nice guy with a good resume. But that is it. Please go get a guy that is a good coach!!!! I do not care if he has been to the CWS or not. Get someone to build Tenn into a good respectable team.
 
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#46
#46
To further study the instate recruiting base....

From 2012-2018, not including juco's...up to date at this moment...

Tennessee has attempted to sign, has had committed, 38 Tennessee kids/78 total players signed or committed total.
32.7% of the recruits are from Tennessee

Vanderbilt has attempted to sign, has had committed, 31 Tennessee kids/117 signed or committed total.
26.5% of the recruits are from Tennessee.

Between the two programs... they have considered, or are considering 264 total players over this seven year period, 69 were/are from the state of Tennessee.

So for the two SEC schools in the state of Tennessee, combined...the in state kids make up 26% of the rosters.


UT from PG...

2012: 7/12
2013: 8/10
2014: 2/10
2015:3/11
2016: 7/16
2017: 7/11
2018: 4/8

VU

2012: 2/16
2013: 5/13
2014: 3/16
2015: 6/19
2016: 3/14
2017: 7/18
2018: 5/21
 
#47
#47
vol66 said:
To further study the instate recruiting base....

From 2012-2018, not including juco's...up to date at this moment...

Tennessee has attempted to sign, has had committed, 38 Tennessee kids/78 total players signed or committed total.
32.7% of the recruits are from Tennessee

Vanderbilt has attempted to sign, has had committed, 31 Tennessee kids/117 signed or committed total.
26.5% of the recruits are from Tennessee.

Between the two programs... they have considered, or are considering 264 total players over this seven year period, 69 were/are from the state of Tennessee.

So for the two SEC schools in the state of Tennessee, combined...the in state kids make up 26% of the rosters.


UT from PG...

2012: 7/12
2013: 8/10
2014: 2/10
2015:3/11
2016: 7/16
2017: 7/11
2018: 4/8

VU

2012: 2/16
2013: 5/13
2014: 3/16
2015: 6/19
2016: 3/14
2017: 7/18
2018: 5/21
Click to expand...

38/78 is 49% and 117 + 78 is 195. So 69/195 is 39%. Maybe I'm misunderstanding your numbers.
 
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