Someone please explain

[sjt18]

ironic thing is, every one that has gotten it that I know are huge pro-maskers and sanitize everything, while I'm over here maskless and basically licking door knobs lol with no issues.

We will have more clarity some day... when there are no politics around CDC releasing information maybe. But there is a significant % of the population that do not get it even under significant exposure. About 80% of those on the Diamond Princess cruise ship and USS Roosevelt did not contract the virus even after weeks of constant close contact. Early on, the experts were puzzled. It was supposedly a "novel" virus for which no one had acquired immunity. Apparently, some immunity is derived from Coronaviruses associated with the Common Cold.

 

[sjt18]

Heh, not quite.

SJT is well-read, which makes him a very capable writer. His command of the English language is exceptional.

That doesn't make him well informed on any topic other than the English language. And it does not prove he has a high degree of general intelligence. It does not even mean that his mental faculties are completely intact. It only means he is well-spoken.

I know, that can easily fool a person into thinking the writer is intelligent, as well.

Unfortunately, SJT's stance on a variety of issues over the years tells me that he is not among the best-informed on these boards. He has a tendency to develop an opinion on a topic early (say, Covid-19...or Guarantano...those are his two current obsessions), then amass data and sources in support of his position while ignoring equally valid, but contradictory, information. He masks this shortfall by demanding that whoever he is debating provide evidence, hard evidence, valid evidence, scientific evidence. Trouble is, I've seen many on the boards here fall into that trap with him, they provide the requested evidence, and he always finds a reason to dismiss it. Because it doesn't fit his narrative. Seen him do this time and time again, on topic after topic.

On top of this "biased intelligence" (which is a euphemism for a lack of true objective intelligence), he has shown signs lately of coming a bit unhinged. Particularly on the topic of Covid-19. For example, in this very thread our gator visitor OP asked a fairly specific covid-related question about LSU's program. SJT hit reply, but didn't even come close to addressing the question; instead, he repeated a mantra he has posted many times already. It's as if he didn't even see that the question was about LSU; that didn't matter to him. The fella seems to have gone off the deep end a bit.

I'm not saying any of this behind his back. I've told SJT directly, in other threads, that I think he's holding too tight to the covid thing, and needs to step back a bit.

Anyway, no. I would not count SJT as one of best informed on these boards. He's not one of the 5-10 folks whose posts I look forward to the most for their insights. But he is well-lettered. Gotta give him that. It's a nice facade over a dogmatic brain and (lately) a touch of crazy.

Wow. I point to the CDC's data. I point to credible, qualified dissent. I provide reasons for what I believe... and you write this? And you think you are "informed" because you've simply swallowed whole things coming from people who have been BADLY wrong and biased so often over the last 6 months. And on top of it all... you pontificate about how someone else has "biased intelligence" while seemingly being stone deaf and blind to your own?

The thing on masks is simply false. Evidence has to be evidence. If I asked you to prove that apples had 70 mg of citric acid and you gave me a study showing that an orange has 70 mg of citric acid... that would not be "proof" that apples are high in citric acid. It is perfectly valid to point out that one study does not relate to the question. That is ALL I've done to the studies you posted. If your contention is that A) non-symptomatic people are a significant source of spread and B) masks are an effective means of mitigating that spread... then pointing to studies of the impact of masks on spread of the flu by symptomatic flu patients... is NOT proof. It is telling that I am the "unintelligent" one here... yet you still do not have a study specifically showing either that non-symptomatic people are significant source of spread OR that masks SPECIFICALLY reduce the risk of spreading Covid in circumstances where Covid is likely to spread. In fact, I recently posted a NYT's article primarily about testing procedures and the possibility of quick results tests (I posted another article on that a few weeks ago from a Harvard researcher). But embedded in that article was the simple ASSUMPTION that more symptoms meant more viral load... which relates directly to a patient's contagiousness. So in bits and pieces... the "A" part of my challenge is starting to turn against your argument for masks.

As for the OP, read it again. The premise is "if the virus is so deadly..." If that premise is false then the question is moot.... and that premise IS false. These young athletes are not in significant danger of dying or being permanently harmed by this virus. It can happen... but the likelihood is far less than them dying in a car accident on the way home from a party.

As for JG, his results and effectiveness as a QB are questioned by A LOT of very well informed and knowledgeable folks here. The "unhinged" folks are those who cannot handle honest criticisms and discussions of weaknesses. JG isn't the first player I've criticized. He is the first to have a cult like following that goes ballistic at any criticism.

 

[S.C. OrangeMan]

Where was it ever said or alleged that LSU and Clemson had a strategy where they wanted players to get it?

I don't think anybody wants their players to get it. Coach O was just saying that most of his players had gotten it already.

Agreed. There is zero evidence that ANY college football team wanted anyone to catch the Coronavirus.

 

[Pappy]

The answer is very simple. Athletic Departments thinking they know more about communicable diseases than trained Physicians and Epidemiologists.

yes...give me a trained Physician every time.....sorry but that just hit me funny...

 

[Remy]

In the interview with Ed O he also said since most of his players have already had Covid they would not need to be tested for 90 days...
Said that would put them at season end before they were required to be tested again...
Sounds like a strategy move on their part....

and a smart one. Like chicken pox which is also a virus, especially for youngsters. The myocarditis thing was waaaaaaay overblown and false for the Ga St. player. Bama had one of the higest rates of campus infections at one point in time and you can see the casket makers going to 3 shifts sending caskets down to Tuscaloosa, right??? GMAFB

 

[sjt18]

Something from WebMD:
When does a community reach herd immunity? It depends on the reproduction number, or R0. The R0 tells you the average number of people that a single person with the virus can infect if those people aren’t already immune. The higher the R0, the more people need to be resistant to reach herd immunity.
Researchers think that the R0 for COVID-19 is between 2 and 3. This means that one person can infect two to three other people. It also means 50% to 67% of the population would need to be resistant before herd immunity kicks in and the infection rates start to go down.
Herd Immunity

Can't be. Liberal news reporters call any reference to herd immunity a "controversial theory".... even though it is historically how virus outbreaks have ultimately been defeated whether naturally or with the aid of vaccines.

 

[sjt18]

Well, that's your opinion, and I certainly respect it. IMO, sjt18 is one of the more informed posters concerning the Kung Flu on this board. And, I enjoy reading them.

Thanks. I honestly do not get folks like VFL-83-JP. Our officials have withheld information during Covid that would have served to calm people because they were afraid people would not be as careful as they wanted. The shutdown was based on and perpetuated by a model claiming that 2.2 million Americans were going to die and that no one was immune. BEFORE the shutdowns occurred and certainly by Easter it was known that a lot of people did have some level of immunity and that the 2.2 million figure was wildly overstated. There are states still in degrees of shutdown based ultimately on this false claim. There are many other occasions when these leaders have been wrong, deceptive, or manipulative.

So I'm not sure how bypassing media filters and drilling down to actual data or studies qualifies me as "unintelligent".

Sadly it is pretty common around here for folks to accuse others of being stupid simply for disagreeing with a point of view or being more critical and difficult to convince. I am NOT against masks due to an emotional reaction or simply to be stubborn. I've worn masks as part of my job. I wear other PPE as a part of my job. I would truly rather not... but REAL science has shown that the probability and severity of injuries goes down by using it.

That's all I'm asking for concerning masks. I'll wear a mask if someone shows me the study showing that non-symptomatic people with Covid shed say 50% as much virus into an environment as symptomatic people and that mask reduce that total by 75%. I think that could be "worthy" of the inconvenience. This would actually be a very, very simple thing to prove. But don't insult my "intelligence" with "because I said so" justifications for things like this.... or by pointing to proofs that do not "prove" the point.

The longer we go without the pro-mask "leaders" performing and releasing studies showing the likelihood of non-symptomatic contagiousness followed by studies of the efficacy of masks against Covid... the more we should suspect that those studies do not support the official position.

 

[sjt18]

Read this article... then tell me again that I'm "crazy" for not trusting people with FAR more to lose.

COVID-19 emails from Nashville mayor's office show disturbing revelation

 

[VOLINVONORE]

Can't be. Liberal news reporters call any reference to herd immunity a "controversial theory".... even though it is historically how virus outbreaks have ultimately been defeated whether naturally or with the aid of vaccines.

Herd immunity varies for each virus. Measles Virus is the most communicable virus known to circulate. With the use of vaccine this disease was almost eliminated from the world. It was not eliminated because some parents decided they would not vaccinate their children because they would be protected by herd immunity. That worked for a few years until the pool of unimminized children increased and the disease was reintroduced into to the environment. Polio, on the other hand, was not a pubic health problem until water supplies were cleaned up. Polio viruses, there 3 of them, grow in the human gut and are segregated in one’s stool. Therefore, live polio viruses were circulating in most of our water supplies children were born with maternal antibodies including polio. Those maternal antibodies wane in the new born and usually disappear in 12-18 months. For polio the water supplies were infect the infants who wold develop sub clinical cases of polio thereby developing their own antibodies which have a very long half-life. Therefore clean water eliminated most of the wild virus and infants did not develop their antibodies were susceptible to a full blow case of polio. Fortunately only about 10 % of polio case develop paralysis.

Herd immunity for Coronavirus and Influenza viruses are less likely to occur because the antibodies developed by our bodies have a very short half-life. Studies which have been conducted for over 50 years indicated the corona viruses which cause the common cold and influenza may last no longer 3-6 months. Therefore, everyone would have to be infected or vaccinated with a near 100% effective vaccine within a 3-6 month period.

I have rambled a bit but it does illustrate that all viruses are different and must be treated differently to protect the population.

 

[sjt18]

Herd immunity varies for each virus. Measles Virus is the most communicable virus known to circulate. With the use of vaccine this disease was almost eliminated from the world. It was not eliminated because some parents decided they would not vaccinate their children because they would be protected by herd immunity. That worked for a few years until the pool of unimminized children increased and the disease was reintroduced into to the environment. Polio, on the other hand, was not a pubic health problem until water supplies were cleaned up. Polio viruses, there 3 of them, grow in the human gut and are segregated in one’s stool. Therefore, live polio viruses were circulating in most of our water supplies children were born with maternal antibodies including polio. Those maternal antibodies wane in the new born and usually disappear in 12-18 months. For polio the water supplies were infect the infants who wold develop sub clinical cases of polio thereby developing their own antibodies which have a very long half-life. Therefore clean water eliminated most of the wild virus and infants did not develop their antibodies were susceptible to a full blow case of polio. Fortunately only about 10 % of polio case develop paralysis.

Herd immunity for Coronavirus and Influenza viruses are less likely to occur because the antibodies developed by our bodies have a very short half-life. Studies which have been conducted for over 50 years indicated the corona viruses which cause the common cold and influenza may last no longer 3-6 months. Therefore, everyone would have to be infected or vaccinated with a near 100% effective vaccine within a 3-6 month period.

I have rambled a bit but it does illustrate that all viruses are different and must be treated differently to protect the population.

I am not sure if I saved the article but for some reason those observing Sweden speculated that the number of people who had been infected in order to cultivate herd immunity for Covid was lower than originally expected.

Thanks for the insights though.

 

[Blake25p]

With all of this COVID stuff, one of the things I wish people would recognize is the inconsistent logic that is applied.

Well, I saw another example based on an article I saw today and it occurred to me.

It was quoting Orgeron who stated that most of his players had gotten COVID and I remembered what they were doing.

So, it begs the question. If the virus is so deadly and can cause long term damage, why on earth would lsu and Clemson (among others) put into practice a strategy where they wanted their players to catch the virus?

And why is no one appalled and enraged at what they are doing? Why aren’t families running to news networks going ballistic?

It makes no sense.

This whole “pandemic” makes no sense.

 

[sjt18]

This whole “pandemic” makes no sense.

It is a serious virus. But it is not nor ever was severe enough to justify the panic and hysteria. That was media driven and largely political. Masks tend to be indicative of a narrative leading science around by the nose. I continue to see multiple "medical leaders" extol masks... saying it is "science". But none produce the actual science. Those who do look for the science uniformly say there is no conclusive science demonstrating if or how much difference masks make. Ultimately... most articles conclude that "it is better than doing nothing". But is it? You even have a ranking official sit in front of Congress and state that masks are a bigger part of the solution than a vaccine... that's Goebbels like misinformation. The guy literally should be forced to produce hard evidence or resign.

Again, that's not to diminish the importance of doing intelligent, thoughtful, scientifically supported things to mitigate the impact of the virus. Even if this turns out to be just another "flu like virus" in terms of public health impact... that's pretty huge. It could ultimately shave months or years off the average lifespan by killing old people who would otherwise live longer. The flu is estimated to kill about 50,000 people each year in spite of treatments and vaccines. But CDC acknowledges that many flu related deaths are not counted. It could easily be twice that number.

Having 150-200 million people die from respiratory viruses each year is not an attractive prospect at all.

The question is what do we do about it. My contention is that too many resources and capital is being spent on things with limited or no value while things that could significantly reduce the virus are ignored. Like this.

Failing the Coronavirus-Testing Test

I actually took time to contact that guy to see if there is a state level route around the FDA's obstacle.

 

[Chuckvolfan]

I am 65, 6`1 over 260`I take blood pressure medicine, low dose. I got it about 6 weeks ago. No fever, no headaches, no smell, weak. Flu was much harder on me. Only smell has not come back yet. Had small upper chest pressure for about 3-4weeks. Lucky I guess, thank God. Monday, Tuesday this week my wife and I walked about 10 miles altogether at the Grand Canyon (7500')

 

[Chuckvolfan]

Please don't think I am trying to make light of this. I have a good friend in the hospital now on ventilator with fear that he will not pull through. He is in this early 80s. Just all this to say we never know how it is going to affect certain people. I feel very fortunate that it did not hit my wife and I any harder than it did. But I know others have lost family members and loved ones because of it.

 

[05_never_again]

It is a serious virus. But it is not nor ever was severe enough to justify the panic and hysteria. That was media driven and largely political. Masks tend to be indicative of a narrative leading science around by the nose. I continue to see multiple "medical leaders" extol masks... saying it is "science". But none produce the actual science. Those who do look for the science uniformly say there is no conclusive science demonstrating if or how much difference masks make. Ultimately... most articles conclude that "it is better than doing nothing". But is it? You even have a ranking official sit in front of Congress and state that masks are a bigger part of the solution than a vaccine... that's Goebbels like misinformation. The guy literally should be forced to produce hard evidence or resign.

Again, that's not to diminish the importance of doing intelligent, thoughtful, scientifically supported things to mitigate the impact of the virus. Even if this turns out to be just another "flu like virus" in terms of public health impact... that's pretty huge. It could ultimately shave months or years off the average lifespan by killing old people who would otherwise live longer. The flu is estimated to kill about 50,000 people each year in spite of treatments and vaccines. But CDC acknowledges that many flu related deaths are not counted. It could easily be twice that number.

Having 150-200 million people die from respiratory viruses each year is not an attractive prospect at all.

The question is what do we do about it. My contention is that too many resources and capital is being spent on things with limited or no value while things that could significantly reduce the virus are ignored. Like this.

Failing the Coronavirus-Testing Test

I actually took time to contact that guy to see if there is a state level route around the FDA's obstacle.

The single biggest issue I have with the general tone of the media coverage is that COVID has been presented far too often as a virus that has an extremely high death rate across the general population, and that we probably need to stay in our homes until there's a vaccine. In April, the goalposts shifted relatively quickly from "let's shutdown for a couple of weeks so hospitals can bring up capacity and they don't get overwhelmed" to "stay inside until there's a cure."

The evidence appears to show that the virus does pose a unique risk to certain elements of the population, namely older people and people with pre-existing health issues. The numbers suggest that COVID is by no means "like the flu" for people in those categories. Folks in those categories and people who spend a lot of time around folks in those categories (e.g., caregivers for an elderly parent) should take serious precautions to limit their exposure. For those groups, I don't think the virus is something to be nonchalant about.

For the rest of the general population, life should go on in (kind of) a normal way. The size of large gatherings probably does need to be limited. Having tables spread further apart than normal in restaurants makes sense. I'm not sure exactly how effective masks are but they do something (otherwise, why do docs wear them all the time), so it makes sense to wear them in situations where you can't socially distance.

 

[BowlBrother85]

I see where we finally got Wanya Morris back. I doubt he will be able to play next week because of all the time he has missed, but still... our o-line should be pretty nasty by the end of October.

 

[sjt18]

The single biggest issue I have with the general tone of the media coverage is that COVID has been presented far too often as a virus that has an extremely high death rate across the general population, and that we probably need to stay in our homes until there's a vaccine. In April, the goalposts shifted relatively quickly from "let's shutdown for a couple of weeks so hospitals can bring up capacity and they don't get overwhelmed" to "stay inside until there's a cure."

The evidence appears to show that the virus does pose a unique risk to certain elements of the population, namely older people and people with pre-existing health issues. The numbers suggest that COVID is by no means "like the flu" for people in those categories. Folks in those categories and people who spend a lot of time around folks in those categories (e.g., caregivers for an elderly parent) should take serious precautions to limit their exposure. For those groups, I don't think the virus is something to be nonchalant about.

For the rest of the general population, life should go on in (kind of) a normal way. The size of large gatherings probably does need to be limited. Having tables spread further apart than normal in restaurants makes sense. I'm not sure exactly how effective masks are but they do something (otherwise, why do docs wear them all the time), so it makes sense to wear them in situations where you can't socially distance.

Other than the bold I agree. The flu is very often not cited as a cause of death even when it is the original illness leading to an old person's death. The flu is deadly for that same group. Since doctors have learned how to better manage Covid the numbers are likely to start looking much more similar. Since May, the IFR is under 0.2% if you calculate the deaths and the same unreported case ratio CDC used previously.

Otherwise really good post. You pretty much described the Sweden approach which appears to be starting to pay dividends for them.

I had these installed at my plant. I do not know why these have not been made a condition for reopening restaurants, schools, and other public indoor places where viral load is likely to accumulate after an infected person visits.

https://www.nucalgon.com/media/6401/20-s151_iwave_coronavirus.pdf

Recently I was called stupid and crazy for questioning leaders who have been wrong or deceptive so often. But I do take the virus serious and am determined to protect my folks. This plus education about the virus has helped us avoid infections so far even as we have seen them in the broader community and state.

 

[05_never_again]

Other than the bold I agree. The flu is very often not cited as a cause of death even when it is the original illness leading to an old person's death. The flu is deadly for that same group. Since doctors have learned how to better manage Covid the numbers are likely to start looking much more similar. Since May, the IFR is under 0.2% if you calculate the deaths and the same unreported case ratio CDC used previously.

Otherwise really good post. You pretty much described the Sweden approach which appears to be starting to pay dividends for them.

I had these installed at my plant. I do not know why these have not been made a condition for reopening restaurants, schools, and other public indoor places where viral load is likely to accumulate after an infected person visits.

https://www.nucalgon.com/media/6401/20-s151_iwave_coronavirus.pdf

Recently I was called stupid and crazy for questioning leaders who have been wrong or deceptive so often. But I do take the virus serious and am determined to protect my folks. This plus education about the virus has helped us avoid infections so far even as we have seen them in the broader community and state.

You're saying that COVID is no more deadly for the elderly than the flu?

I hear you that flu probably isn't going to be cited as a cause of death like a brand new virus is, but even taking that into account, having 11.6% of people over 75 in the UK die who got COVID seems really high, and an elevated risk beyond what the flu would do. Hospitals don't get overwhelmed every year with elderly flu patients.

The coronavirus is most deadly if you are older and male — new data reveal the risks

 

[sjt18]

You're saying that COVID is no more deadly for the elderly than the flu?

Not quite. I don't have data to support that. What I am saying is that the flu is deadly for that same group and that flu related deaths are significantly undercounted... according to CDC. They note that many flu related death go uncounted because people die of follow on causes directly resulting from the flu that occur after flu is no longer detectable. One example they give is people who have the flu then develop a staph infection that kills them. Those deaths are a direct result of the flu and very seldom recorded as the flu.

I hear you that flu probably isn't going to be cited as a cause of death like a brand new virus is, but even taking that into account, having 11.6% of people over 75 in the UK die who got COVID seems really high, and an elevated risk beyond what the flu would do.

Covid results will get better and already have. It is very likely that many early casualties were a direct result of improper ventilator use or other mistakes due simply to a lack of knowledge.

Hospitals don't get overwhelmed every year with elderly flu patients.

That's actually not true... it just isn't news. During the 8 month flu season two years ago, about 950,000 Americans were hospitalized for the flu- mostly the elderly. Total Covid hospitalizations are just now approaching 400,000 in essentially 6 months. Since it appears most areas have peaked or are now peaking, Covid may not make half the number of hospitalizations as that particularly bad flu season. They will be similar to a typical flu season.

The coronavirus is most deadly if you are older and male — new data reveal the risks

I live and manage a facility in Missouri. I believe this state overall has managed things well. I would give our governor relatively high marks. I receive direct daily updates from our county health department and check the state dashboard frequently. So I'm not surprised by that data at all. Oddly we have slightly more women than men who have died.

The virus preys on the old. Ultimately it may be worse than the flu but not by huge orders of magnitude. It appears so far to be LESS deadly for those under 40. Those over 60 make up 91% of the Covid related deaths in Missouri. That is consistent with other states and countries I've researched. Those over 80 account for 50% of Covid deaths and only about 5% of the state population. Only 19 people under the age of 40 have died in MO with Covid. As far as I know, all had other serious health factors.

 

[sjt18]

The Case Fatality Rate among those over 80 in MO is 15.5%. The IFR will be lower but among those who test positive... many unfortunately do not make it.