Stars and Recruiting Ranking discussion

#26
#26
You build talented and deep rosters like Bama, UGA and OSU have done. By recruiting as many high 4 and 5* players as you can.
No. You do it by recruiting players with elite potential regardless of the "stars" beside their name. You consistently insist on putting the cart before the horse.

The recruiting sites aren't proven "accurate" by giving stars to the recruits those particular coaches love. To be "accurate"... they have to be accurate after that top handful of programs
 
#28
#28
The "hits" really don't illustrate the point. They give out around 30 5* ratings per year. There are legitimately 100-200 guys who are just as equally deserving. About 60% or 18-20 of the ones they label 5* will eventually be drafted. Frankly, that's really not all that good even with the 5*. But it gives them enough correct ratings to be "credible"
There are not 100-200 guys deserving of a 5 star ranking. There’s about 30-40. And the percentage of 5 star players that get drafted is much higher than other rankings
 
#29
#29
Most of the 5* they find are very talented, high probability players. That isn't the question. The question is do you have to have those 30 players or can you find 4* and even 3* players that become equally skilled players.

I don't hate Crompton but he was a 5*.

Other notable misses... just from UT. Some were decent players and contributors but they never played anything like one of the best 30 players in the country:

Brent Vinson
Chris Donald
Kenny O'Neal
Jonathan Mapu
James Banks
Brandon Jeffries
Jessie Mahelona
Albert Toeina
Demetrice Morley
Walter Fisher
Ben Martin
Da'Rick Rogers
Drew Richmond
Kahlil McKenzie
Kyle Phillips
Jonathan Kongbo

The services get it right more than they get it wrong. I know you don’t like that.
 
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#30
#30
There are not 100-200 guys deserving of a 5 star ranking. There’s about 30-40. And the percentage of 5 star players that get drafted is much higher than other rankings
That's simply not true. They hand out around 30 5* ratings each year. Roughly 18-20 will be drafted. Around 60%. The draft isn't a perfect measure of recruiting site accuracy but it is the most objective we have. MANY 4*, 3*, 2*, and no stars will be taken in the draft. MANY will be taken well before some of the 5* guys.

So what you are saying is that in spite of ending up being one of the 30 best players according to NFL GMs... they weren't deserving of a 5* rating?
 
#31
#31
The services get it right more than they get it wrong. I know you don’t like that.
LOL. No they don't. Their arbitrary limit on the number of 4* and 5* players is an attempt to cherry pick. And STILL there are more players they rank below 4* that get drafted than 4/5*. Around 18 5* players on average will get drafted. That's around 7% of the draft.

They only hand out about 30 5*... that's not an attempt to properly rate players. If they were doing what YOU think they're doing... they would give out many more 5* one year and many less in another. Almost all of the guys they give 5* to would get drafted. They would practically pick the first couple of rounds due to talent alone. But they're nowhere near that good.

They are good at making chumps think they're highly accurate though. That's pretty clever.
 
#32
#32
Just stop, you can argue with me all you want about ratings because you don’t like what I post on here, but the simple fact is the teams that consistently finish in the top 5 in recruiting are usually the teams that finish in the top 5 on the field. Georgia, Bama, Ohio State, OU, Michigan, and Clemson rarely finish outside the top 10 and those first 3 usually sign top 5 classes and Bama and Georgia (who have been the most dominant teams the past 7-8 years) either finish 1-3. COULD we get there without cracking the top 5 on a consistent basis? Potentially, but signing the best players each year would make it a lot easier
So you seem to believe that the UT coaching staff is meeting somewhere deciding how highly ranked they want the recruiting class to be? These arguments get weird when they last so long that people forget the purpose of the discussion.
 
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#33
#33
That's simply not true. They hand out around 30 5* ratings each year. Roughly 18-20 will be drafted. Around 60%. The draft isn't a perfect measure of recruiting site accuracy but it is the most objective we have. MANY 4*, 3*, 2*, and no stars will be taken in the draft. MANY will be taken well before some of the 5* guys.

So what you are saying is that in spite of ending up being one of the 30 best players according to NFL GMs... they weren't deserving of a 5* rating?
Do you think a kid looks and plays the same in High School as they do coming out of college? I’m getting punked…where’s Ashton Kutcher?
 
#34
#34
Do you think a kid looks and plays the same in High School as they do coming out of college? I’m getting punked…where’s Ashton Kutcher?
That's not what successful recruiting is about. You recruit potential if you want to build a championship roster. Some things are really obvious. A few kids (and 100 out of several thousand HSFB players is a few) mature early and have high level physical ability. Some of those 5* guys are close to their ceiling. A lot of 3* guys are nowhere near theirs.

What BOT and you and a few others seem to think is that you cannot win championships with the latter.

You are being punked... but not by me.
 
#35
#35
The "hits" really don't illustrate the point. They give out around 30 5* ratings per year. There are legitimately 100-200 guys who are just as equally deserving. About 60% or 18-20 of the ones they label 5* will eventually be drafted. Frankly, that's really not all that good even with the 5*. But it gives them enough correct ratings to be "credible"
But Eric fit the 5star ranking at every level including the pros
 
#36
#36
So you seem to believe that the UT coaching staff is meeting somewhere deciding how highly ranked they want the recruiting class to be? These arguments get weird when they last so long that people forget the purpose of the discussion.
I honestly think he does. He somehow thinks that the coaches pay attention to how the recruiting sites rank a kid.

A few weeks ago, he acted as if he had watched a recruit's "film" because he'd watched highlight videos. He apparently didn't know that major programs employ TRUE recruiting consultants and evaluators to help them find and vet players.

247 has around 160 total employees if I understand correctly. Some of them are writers. Many are clerical and management. A handful are involved in ranking players. That's probably pretty similar across the other sites except ESPN that likely commits less. Usually around 2,000-3,000 kids get a rating. Around 400 are given 4* and around 30 are given 5*.

Those people with less expertise than coaches and real recruiting consultants are supposedly so "accurate" that their rankings predict champions...rather than them copying the work of championship level recruiters.

UT had a coach who really did care about recruiting rankings. Jones did. He thought that it brought good attention to the program and would help get other good players. It didn't work ultimately. A lot of the highly rated players he got were legacies and homers. A disproportionate number of his 4/5* guys were underperformers or outright busts.
 
#37
#37
But Eric fit the 5star ranking at every level including the pros
OK. And? Some 5* guys do. Some 4* guys do. Some 3* guys do. Some 2* guys do. Some unranked guys do.

That's the point. If your kid is a D student do you call him a "great" scholar because he gets some answers right?
 
#38
#38
OK. And? Some 5* guys do. Some 4* guys do. Some 3* guys do. Some 2* guys do. Some unranked guys do.

That's the point. If your kid is a D student do you call him a "great" scholar because he gets some answers right?
Assume you have 10 kids with a 4.0 HS GPA, 100 kids with a 3.0 HS GPA, and 1000 kids with a 2.0 HS GPA. You’d probably assume the 10 kids with the 4.0 are “smartest”, but you may find that there are some kids in the lesser categories with untapped potential. Statistically, the 4.0 kids tend to be “smarter”, but you’ll find a smaller, but present, sector of kids that outperform their original expectations when provided with the necessary resources. So maybe 7 in the 4.0 group score well, 8 in the 3.0 group score well, and 12 in the 2.0 group score well. Yes, 20 from the lesser groups are in the top 27, but 7 of the top 10 maintained the expected trajectory as opposed to 92 of Group 3.0 & 988 in Group 2.0.

All of the statistical analysis of the rankings say that the top 50 players have the best chances of getting drafted. You can miss on the exact number while still having an accurate trend. This is the best analogy I can provide without the mods editing my post again.
 
#39
#39
You have to have top 5 classes if you want to win a NC. There is just way too much data that backs that up. The Clemson exception is rare. A complete outlier. You. Ring up the portal. Portal players don’t guarantee anything. They can be program changing or just decent.

Now do I think we can win NY6 bowls without top 5 recruiting classes? Yes. Can we make the playoffs without top 5 classes? Yes. Win a NC? Highly unlikely.
Not really

Clemson had two great quarterbacks and top 15/10 talent

We are recruiting top 15/10 talent and it looks like we have great quarterbacks and we have one of the greatest offensive minds in the history of football.

We were one USCjr debacle away from being in the playoff in year two with the 19th most talented roster in the country.

We are already more talented.

If Joe Milton is great we can win it all in 2023.

Smack Carson Beck in his mouth in Neyland
 
#40
#40
It's really simple.
A star is not actual talent.
A 3 star 6'1 180 lb WR than runs a 4.5,
DOESN'T become a 6'3 205 4.3 speed WR because someone gave him two more stars to become a 5 star.

And YES, some of y'all are adopting to that truly without even realizing it.

You call a player a 4 star, and that's "what he IS". As if he's interchangeable with another 4 star player at the same position...because they're both 4 stars.

My God, Big Orange Train is the absolute worst of them. He literally thinks a star equals ATHLETIC ABILITY.

And what are the chances that there are ALWAYS 30 players each cycle that are the absolute best...and are all exactly equal in talent 🙄???

Some of these Tennessee greats that everyone idolizes wouldn't have been ranked high had there been star rankings in their time. So many good players from the state of Tennessee made those Fulmer teams badass.

It's absolutely ridiculous how so many people just can't use their own eyes anymore.
 
#41
#41
Just stop, you can argue with me all you want about ratings because you don’t like what I post on here, but the simple fact is the teams that consistently finish in the top 5 in recruiting are usually the teams that finish in the top 5 on the field. Georgia, Bama, Ohio State, OU, Michigan, and Clemson rarely finish outside the top 10 and those first 3 usually sign top 5 classes and Bama and Georgia (who have been the most dominant teams the past 7-8 years) either finish 1-3. COULD we get there without cracking the top 5 on a consistent basis? Potentially, but signing the best players each year would make it a lot easier
Just stop tryin to speak facts to people man. They don’t wanna hear it. You’re right Georgia, Alabama, Michigan, OSU all these teams are at the top every year bc they consistently finish in the top 5, you even said potentially we don’t have to finish at the top and it would make it easier.
Look at Tennessee’s last 15 years.. we’ve had inconsistent classes and what last year we had a breakthrough year at 11-2 and all of a sudden we are thinking oh this staff can do it without signing 5* guys..
Smh this will be the same people who turn on this staff first if we don’t win the sec this year.
Just wanted to say I agree with you , if Tennessee is gonna be consistently competing at the top of the sec they’re gonna have to consistency be in the top 5 of recruiting, it’s laughable people saying you don’t have to in the sec..No SEC TEAM has ever done it and never will be at the top without the recruiting to back it up.
 
#42
#42
So, two years removed from a complete dumpster fire, with ONE impressive year under our belt, we are back to the "It is an unacceptable year if we don't win the National Championship" mode?! You have to love a fan base where part wants to hold unrealistice goals as the only acceptable, or others set the bar so low that even one win is acceptable. It is actually quite humorous, in a sad kind of way.
 
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#43
#43
Assume you have 10 kids with a 4.0 HS GPA, 100 kids with a 3.0 HS GPA, and 1000 kids with a 2.0 HS GPA. You’d probably assume the 10 kids with the 4.0 are “smartest”, but you may find that there are some kids in the lesser categories with untapped potential. Statistically, the 4.0 kids tend to be “smarter”, but you’ll find a smaller, but present, sector of kids that outperform their original expectations when provided with the necessary resources. So maybe 7 in the 4.0 group score well, 8 in the 3.0 group score well, and 12 in the 2.0 group score well. Yes, 20 from the lesser groups are in the top 27, but 7 of the top 10 maintained the expected trajectory as opposed to 92 of Group 3.0 & 988 in Group 2.0.
Your analogy isn't strong enough. You would have to add about 20 kids with 4.0 that for whatever reason you didn't recognize or else didn't know about. The grading scale and difficulty for all of those you attempted to segregate would have to be different. Then you would have to add in a healthy dose of subjectivity.

You still want to think the recruiting sites are completely objective or comprehensive. Your analogy conveys that very thinking. But they aren't. They don't even intend to be. Obviously they don't want to pick a bunch of duds as 5*. Fortunately, they don't have to because there are a lot more guys they could rate 5* than 30. So all they have to do is guess 60% right on 30 guys chosen from 100-200 players that have comparable talent... and you think they're the end rule for talent.

Their goal by the way is not accuracy. Their goal is to get clicks and sell subscriptions. That's not a bad or dishonest thing. But you cannot understand the "accuracy" of the recruiting sites without understanding their objective.

All of the statistical analysis of the rankings say that the top 50 players have the best chances of getting drafted. You can miss on the exact number while still having an accurate trend. This is the best analogy I can provide without the mods editing my post again.
And ALL of the reality shows that much less than 50% of any draft will be made up of those players. If they were accurate in the way you think then practically the whole draft of 262 would be chosen from 247's top 247, On3's top 300, and Rivals 250.

They hand out around 430 4/5* ratings each year. On average, about 100 of those will be drafted. They miss 75% or more.
 
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#44
#44
We’re past the goal of being “super competitive” SEC and national championships should be the expectation going forward after the first 2 seasons under this staff. We need to start signing top 5 classes to get there
The expectation should be a National championship? Yikes. I guess be ready to be disappointed basically every year.
 
#46
#46
You have to have top 5 classes if you want to win a NC. There is just way too much data that backs that up. The Clemson exception is rare. A complete outlier. You. Ring up the portal. Portal players don’t guarantee anything. They can be program changing or just decent.

Now do I think we can win NY6 bowls without top 5 recruiting classes? Yes. Can we make the playoffs without top 5 classes? Yes. Win a NC? Highly unlikely.
Agree on all points. To have year over year opportunity for NC, you've got to recruit like UGA/Bama. We are only a couple years recovered from being entirely dysfunctional for over a decade and I'm just enjoying being semi relevant.

Our roster is just now seeing depth by having players stay (not transfer out b/c like w/ Butch, where the picture he painted vs actual experience was different, so always a revolving door)...and then every 3-5 years, we were getting new coaches and having massive exodus of the program. So, even by having top 10-15 type classes, by having the majority of them stay builds "old" depth, which we've not enjoyed for a long time. The portal helps, but I think it's all about trajectory. If we enjoy another successful season this year, and Nico is as good as advertised, we will start to pull in top 5 classes over the next 3 years and continue to add valuable portal players.

JH is building this thing the right way with the culture he's instilling. I certainly always like the "win now" at high levels mind-set, but I'm also OK with a sustained build, which tends to have staying power over the long term. As long as JH can continue to get "his" QB, as it appears he can, then that's the cornerstone which brings attraction to the entire program and the system he runs...including on D.
 
#47
#47
If I were to guess I'd say Clemsons recruiting rankings preceeding their national championships, but again thats just a guess. If thats it though, it should be noted we don't play in the ACC and get to cruise to the playoffs.
Yes, I think Clemson has a disclaimer by their discussion b/c even in their best years, they don't have the SEC gauntlet to deal with, but give them credit for winning the games that matter I guess. Their build from Taj Boyd to where they are I think is a similar build for JH...get the QB, and in JH case, the system, to attract talent at other positions. Think Clemson in trouble b/c their core recruiting areas are covered up with teams playing at a higher level than the past decade...UGA, UT, SC...picking off players they were getting.
 
#48
#48
It's really simple.
A star is not actual talent.
A 3 star 6'1 180 lb WR than runs a 4.5,
DOESN'T become a 6'3 205 4.3 speed WR because someone gave him two more stars to become a 5 star.

And YES, some of y'all are adopting to that truly without even realizing it.

You call a player a 4 star, and that's "what he IS". As if he's interchangeable with another 4 star player at the same position...because they're both 4 stars.

My God, Big Orange Train is the absolute worst of them. He literally thinks a star equals ATHLETIC ABILITY.

And what are the chances that there are ALWAYS 30 players each cycle that are the absolute best...and are all exactly equal in talent 🙄???

Some of these Tennessee greats that everyone idolizes wouldn't have been ranked high had there been star rankings in their time. So many good players from the state of Tennessee made those Fulmer teams badass.

It's absolutely ridiculous how so many people just can't use their own eyes anymore.
I really really agree with you and SG, Some commenters fail to realize highlight film is just that, never show the fumbles whiffed blocks dropped passes etc. It would be hard for me to believe that some kids just haven't reached their potential in HS. Dillon Bates is an example of a player that had superior coaching and reached his full potential in HS there just wasn't improvement left in him.
 
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#49
#49
So, two years removed from a complete dumpster fire, with ONE impressive year under our belt, we are back to the "It is an unacceptable year if we don't win the National Championship" mode?! You have to love a fan base where part wants to hold unrealistice goals as the only acceptable, or others set the bar so low that even one win is acceptable. It is actually quite humorous, in a sad kind of way.
Think there's a good possibility that we take a slight step back this year on wins. Hooker was the equalizer, where talent, "in game" competitiveness and leadership was a steadying factor. Am glad we have Milton as a bridge to Nico, and he has all the tools, but am not sold (yet) on him having consistency over the course of a LONG season that we're going to need.
 
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#50
#50
The expectation should be a National championship? Yikes. I guess be ready to be disappointed basically every year.
That's always been my "expectation". That is the way the program at UT and its coach should be evaluated. Why would expecting to be a NC contender lead to disappointment every year unless you have set your bar way, way, way too low?
 
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