State of the Economy and How It's Presented

#26
#26
volinbham said:
Theory of Rational Expectations - if we believe things are going to be bad in the future, we are going to pull back on spending today, save all we can, etc.
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Anyone unwilling to admit that there is an enormous psychological side to markets, thus the economy, need no longer be listened to.
 
#29
#29
wbailey7 said:
I think it's being blown out of proportion. I had this conversation with a friend a few weeks ago. You ever noticed how the news is the most depressing thing to watch?

You have the economy supposedly going to hell, murders left and right, people getting screwed by businesses and each other, and the worst of all, Florida winning another NC in football.

Anyways, if we are being told "how bad" things are going to become, we're not going to spend money as we normally would. I'm no economist, but common sense tells me that is a bad thing.

I'm spending my money no differently than I would with a booming economy. Given I'm only 21, and have a very stable job, I suppose I don't risk losing as much as others.
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there is zero question in my mind that cnbc and the other 24 hour news networks are hurting this economy considerably compared to past recessions. I can't tell you how many of my clients quote somethign some talking head said as reason why they are scared to death.
 
#30
#30
KB5252 said:
I am not agnostic but i think you are a bit of a conspiracy theorist.
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I am...considering the FACT we are led by individuals who do what they do because of the perks and pay, as well as the psychological high of being that individual that makes decicions in place of many. The reason conspiracy theorists have the infamy they do is because you know down deep....their probably right and we're all screwed.
 
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#31
#31
dan4vols said:
Considering Greenspan who is widely accepted as that one who does know, claimed he doesn't know...I wonder.
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He doesn't claim he doesn't know. He said he failed in understanding something about the derivatives that we were using to prop up the CMB market and that the real estate market 'as a whole' might retrench.
 
#32
#32
BigPapaVol said:
He doesn't claim he doesn't know. He said he failed in understanding something about the derivatives that we were using to prop up the CMB market and that the real estate market 'as a whole' might retrench.
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Yes you're right...he doesn't know.
 
#33
#33
BigPapaVol said:
Destroying our economy is going to be much more difficult than anything anyone has ever done in this world.
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i agree. our economy is bad right now but its not as bad as the media makes it. the media puts it as if we r about to be in another great depression
 
#34
#34
dan4vols said:
Yes you're right...he doesn't know.
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Wrong. He now clearly knows. We continue to learn about this inexact science of economics. We'll never nail it down because of the human psychology element, but we have gotten massively better at it over the decades.
 
#35
#35
Assuredly we have gotton better at it, It's hindsight before hand everytime we see a change or drift. But to say any one person can know the economics of the US considering we are not on the gold standard and it's just the good word of the US, and considering all the variables of the world economy in relation to the US economy to say you understand it is to say you are God, and is presumtuous. I'm just saying the day will come when the economy will not exist, because no confidence will happen, because of human nature...and we'll all be equal...just men who are hungry, naked , and cold.
 
#36
#36
volinbham said:
I agree that people are feeling the effect but is that really a disaster? Take the housing prices thing. I've lost home equity for sure but much of what I had was unrealistic anyway.

I'm just getting the feeling that we are a bunch of whiners unwilling to experience ANY downturn. As a result, we turn to the government to "save" us.

I know there is legit suffering but I'm trying to get a feel for context.
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I agree. Cost of living keeps going up and people's salary's really haven't kept up with the rising costs of things. Everything in my home costs more now. Electricity, tv, phone, internet, trash pickup. Food costs and fuel. People just have less money to free will around anymore. Now how do you fix that? I don't have the answer. One stimulus package or two aren't going to fix those things. People paid bills with their last one, a lot did anyway. TVA is adding in the cost of the ash spill cleanup to everyone's bill even though they had insurance, thats bs. Price gouging across the board has helped us get into the mess were in.
 
#37
#37
dan4vols said:
Assuredly we have gotton better at it, It's hindsight before hand everytime we see a change or drift. But to say any one person can know the economics of the US considering we are not on the gold standard and it's just the good word of the US, and considering all the variables of the world economy in relation to the US economy to say you understand it is to say you are God, and is presumtuous. I'm just saying the day will come when the economy will not exist, because no confidence will happen, because of human nature...and we'll all be equal...just men who are hungry, naked , and cold.
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you might be a glass half empty type of guy, but I'm only guessing.
 
#39
#39
BigPapaVol said:
you might be a glass half empty type of guy, but I'm only guessing.
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Yes I am. I grow weary of people in 50k SUV's tossing out cigarette butts in my windshield after passing me 25 mph over the speed limit and entering my lane with no turn signal. Laugh if you want but look at the times. People pissin on others just because they can, treating others like trash, man I tell you get your heart right with almighty God.
 
#40
#40
dan4vols said:
Yes I am. I grow weary of people in 50k SUV's tossing out cigarette butts in my windshield after passing me 25 mph over the speed limit and entering my lane with no turn signal. Laugh if you want but look at the times. People pissin on others just because they can, treating others like trash, man I tell you get your heart right with almighty God.
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you think stepping on people is new?
 
#41
#41
emainvol said:
Hell, isn't the foundation of the consumer confidence index a psychological one?
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CCI is clearly Psyche, but so are the NYSE, NASDAQ, CBOE, Treasury Yields, Spot Fuel pricing, Option prices, etc, etc, etc.

Banks making bets on loans is a psyche exercise. You buying a car is. In the end, human outlook drives decisions, small and large and the economy ebbs and flows with them.

The unbelievable negative news world is only serving to drastically intensify that problem.
 
#43
#43
BigPapaVol said:
CCI is clearly Psyche, but so are the NYSE, NASDAQ, CBOE, Treasury Yields, Spot Fuel pricing, Option prices, etc, etc, etc.

Banks making bets on loans is a psyche exercise. You buying a car is. In the end, human outlook drives decisions, small and large and the economy ebbs and flows with them.

The unbelievable negative news world is only serving to drastically intensify that problem.
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That was more of a rhetorical, but good answer nonetheless.
 
#48
#48
dan4vols said:
That doesn't make it right.
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I'm not saying it is, but I am saying that there's not some new mindset here that is running our economy into the ground, unless you want to point to our entitlement mentality, which I didn't hear from you.
 
#49
#49
BigPapaVol said:
I'm not saying it is, but I am saying that there's not some new mindset here that is running our economy into the ground, unless you want to point to our entitlement mentality, which I didn't hear from you.
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As complex as our economy is many things are implied, ask Greenspan.
 
#50
#50
dan4vols said:
As complex as our economy is many things are implied, ask Greenspan.
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ask Greenspan what?

If you mean that policy makers have to deal with myriad assumptions, I agree.

If you're saying our assumptions will implode the economy, I disagree.
 
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