Statistics tell the story II

[daj2576]

:

Hey daj. As someone who got a lot out of your stats I thread, i give you an A for effort on this one. Unfortunately, we aren't a very receptive audience right now.
The offense is improved. Personally i think the O line is doing a fantastic job. I'm also pleased that graham has coached up our backs compared to last year. Your analysis shows improvement in many facets of our game.
At this point, it is so hard to be happy about those improved facets when the total picture is unimproved.

:hi:
Thank you kind sir...
By the way, not to tip too much off BUT I am working on the same sort of recruiting analysis that we discussed previously for all 120ish Div 1 teams for 2011/2012. I will publish it after the season.

 

[daj2576]

Sometimes performance can be hard to analyze because of all the variables ie chicken or the egg.

Our running game IMO is a perfect example of the influence of coaching. We have essentially the same line and the same backs as last year but have VASTLY improved because of the new OL and RB coaches.

Ohhhhhh, if only we had new DC and HC ......

and experience...which is sometimes an underrated value.

 

[jp1]

Sometimes performance can be hard to analyze because of all the variables ie chicken or the egg.

Our running game IMO is a perfect example of the influence of coaching. We have essentially the same line and the same backs as last year but have VASTLY improved because of the new OL and RB coaches.

Ohhhhhh, if only we had new DC and HC ......

Do we know if the latter of the two had any hand in this progress you mention? Why is it that when the offense struggled last year our HC got all the blame, but now that they have improved he gets no credit whatsoever. What gives?

 

[pimo1]

Regardless of yards gained or allowed or the final score. 2-6 in the SEC his first year, 1-7 in his second year and now 0-5 in year three. That's not progress no matter how you slice it.

Actually if you slice it with winning out the last 3 then yes it would be improvement. Last I checked 3 is greater than both 1 and 2. In fact even if you add them together they can only equal 3. Guess you need a sharper knife for your slicing bud.

 

[IBlvNTmWrk]

daj2576... fwiw I appreciate the analysis and data you have provided, and the manner in which you have provided it. I thought about putting similar information together as I also prefer looking at things objectively versus subjectively, but ultimately decided it wouldn't be worth it as most seem to have already made up there minds and have zero interest in looking at "true" data versus an "0-5" less relevant record.

If we were comparing analytics within a stable environment there might be some validity to some posters comments, but as you have correctly pointed out the SEC has changed. This should be obvious just by looking at the SEC's overall OOC record, bowl wins, and certainly NC's the past few years. As the commercial says... "this is not your father's Oldsmobile".

Not recognizing nor giving credit to a more powerful conference (especially relative to UT's schedule) would also beg the question "what happened to all those good investment brokers during the 90's"? Any decent broker was providing double digit returns at that time and the good ones were well into the double digits. I guess now all brokers are just incompetent because they're no longer able to achieve the same results!

Go figure!

 

[pimo1]

what a clown answer. didn't see memphis or nebraska on the schedule this year clueless. you would take bray over who? any of the 4 i mentioned lose to kentucky? keep coming up with your silly stats. wins or loses are all that counts in the big picture.

what are you smoking? I want some please

 

[photovol]

Our best defensive year and most balanced offensive attack was Kiffin. With less talent than we have today.

That is what I get out of that analysis.

I hate to admitt it but Kiffin got more from less than Dooley gets from more.....too confusing....simple, Dooley can't motivate his players (known as losing his team)
the sad part is that Dooley really tries but doesn't posess the gift/talent that good/great coaches have

 

[pimo1]

I didn't see Manning on our roster either...but you brought him up, didnt you?

And the truth is, when Manning was here Bama was down, UGA was down, LSU was down, etc. There were really only two teams in the SEC, he played for one and couldn't beat the other...ever.

Manning lost to Memphis State...with a vastly superior team and that hurts much worse than losing to KY who has actually beat us some time in the past. But if wins and losses against good teams are all that matters, then you can't count Manning's wins against almost anyone but UF.

Don't think that I am bashing Manning. You simply asked who I would want in some hypothetical ball game, and I said that hypothetically if we were playing UF/Memphis/Nebraska that I probably wouldn't pick Manning because we know how those games turned out already.

Manning as a starter only played 15 ranked teams (10-5 record). That was over 3.5 seasons, right? That is almost as many ranked teams as Bray has faced in 2.5 (granted, he didn't start for all of them, but I don't feel like breaking that number down right now). Another interesting stat, when UT was ranked with Manning as a starter, UT NEVER beat a team that was ranked higher than us. That is 37 consecutive weeks of being ranked, and never beating a team that is ranked higher. In fact, he lost to a lower rated UF team once and an unranked Memphis team once. I will also point out, that an unranked UT team Manning's freshman year beat two ranked teams, so maybe it washes out.

Here is the thing. Very few people on here will get you valiant effort (I an truly see it as that) to put some logic into the conversation. I have wondered for the past few years every time I see all the guys talking about how we should be competing for Championships every year. The funny thing is they are asking of a coach something that has NEVER in the modern history of college football been done at UT. We have NEVER competed year in and year out for national or Even SEC championships. We have had a few good seasons each decade but that is it.

Name a coach in this schools history that has ever pulled off what people expect Dooley to be doing right now. Now could we go back in time to before the game was integrated, milk was delivered to your door and if you asked someone what a cousin was they'd say the girl they were taking to prom. If we went back that far one could make an argument except for the fact that they couldn't because that was a totally different game in a totally different era.

At some point we need to get in touch with reality. This defense sucks. That is a fact but its epic suckiness was something many people (including myself) predicted in the preseason when it was announced. Almost EVERY team at any level that goes from base 43 to base 34 struggles mightily in the first year or 2 especially if they do not have the right personnel. We have a defense built for a 43 period. Even McCullers would be a more dynamic impact player at DT than NT though he is a beast and would be anywhere you lined him up in the front 3 or 4.

The 2 defenses have totally different mentalities and schemes especially moving from what we had last year to what we are trying to do now. The Troy game was a nightmare but as the OP pointed out it is an outlier. The defense is not that bad. Thing is, it is not the scheme that is the problem in and of itself. This is a system that takes time to put in place. Honestly I think we will see a much improved defense as early as next season.

I have never made it a secret I support Dooley and thought the scheme change was a bad idea for the exact reasons coming to light. But what if? What if Dooley is a creature of logic? What if Dooley knew ahead of time that barring a complete and total implosion he had another year? Then he comes out the back end of this looking like a genius and a lot of people will be eating a lot of orange flavored crow.

Winning out is not a given but the Troy game could be just what the doctor ordered for Sunseri. Trust me that D is hearing it this week. They are angry, ashamed and hopefully focused. We will see Saturday and I, as always, am betting on orange.

/end rant

 

[pianoko]

Great post OP. Your conversation is by the most intelligent and reasonable I have seen on here. What is the best source of data?

 

[daj2576]

Great post OP. Your conversation is by the most intelligent and reasonable I have seen on here. What is the best source of data?

Have any more compliments? Lay them on me!

Best source? You can get a ton of information off of ESPN.com looking through previous schedules and box scores, the UT website has good information. There is plenty out there, it is just picking a place you trust and find easy to navigate.

 

[MSCE09]

daj,
Nice work. I think it could be reasonably argued that in part our success in the 90s had a lot to do with UGA, Bama being down and being before USC was even competitive at football. Its popular to say Fulmer went down hill, but the truth is more that Bama, Georgia and Carolina got their act together and 3 easy wins disappeared from the schedule over ten years.

Now this year, of the 5 ranked SEC games this year though I think Mississippi State is going to look like a pretty average team by the end of the season. If they don't beat Arkansas, who is starting to play better, they might not win again this year. The only reason they are still ranked is they were able to beat us.

 

[IBlvNTmWrk]

Which data is more informative... Louisville is 9 - 0 and ranked 9th in the polls, or that 4 of their wins have been buy fewer than 5 points (including one OT win against a team that UT beat convincingly last year) and they haven't faced a single team in the top 25.

UT could arguably be 9 - 0 with this schedule, and Louisville could arguably be 4 - 5 with UT's schedule.

09/02/12 vs. KENTUCKY W, 32-14
09/08/12 vs. MISSOURI STATE W, 35-7
09/15/12 vs. NORTH CAROLINA W, 39-34
09/22/12 at FIU W, 28-21
09/29/12 at Southern Miss W, 21-17
10/13/12 at Pittsburgh W, 45-35
10/20/12 vs. USF W, 27-25
10/26/12 vs. CINCINNATI W, 34-31 (OT)
11/03/12 vs. TEMPLE W, 45-17
11/10/12 at Syracuse
11/24/12 vs. CONNECTICUT
11/29/12 at Rutgers

 

[pimo1]

Which data is more informative... Louisville is 9 - 0 and ranked 9th in the polls, or that 4 of their wins have been buy fewer than 5 points (including one OT win against a team that UT beat convincingly last year) and they haven't faced a single team in the top 25.

UT could arguably be 9 - 0 with this schedule, and Louisville could arguably be 4 - 5 with UT's schedule.

09/02/12 vs. KENTUCKY W, 32-14
09/08/12 vs. MISSOURI STATE W, 35-7
09/15/12 vs. NORTH CAROLINA W, 39-34
09/22/12 at FIU W, 28-21
09/29/12 at Southern Miss W, 21-17
10/13/12 at Pittsburgh W, 45-35
10/20/12 vs. USF W, 27-25
10/26/12 vs. CINCINNATI W, 34-31 (OT)
11/03/12 vs. TEMPLE W, 45-17
11/10/12 at Syracuse
11/24/12 vs. CONNECTICUT
11/29/12 at Rutgers

It is like everyone on their schedule is someones homecoming game. Seriously thats a weak schedule.

 

[GmanTN]

Same results just different excuses, at some point you have to see the one common denominator Dooley. It is time to move forward and spend the big money and get a winner in here before any more damage can be done. We have now lost the KY streak and the Vandy streak (6 in a row) is in jeapordy of losing as well.