Stats show offense overachieving a bit

#1
BanditVol

BanditVol

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#1
Below are points allowed by teams vs. the points we have scored:

Team Points Allowed/(Our Score and Diff)
WKU 24/ (52 or +28)
Oregon 14/ (14 or +0)
Florida 14 (17 or +3)
USA 30/ (31 or +1)
Uga 34 /(31 or -3)

I'm not including A Peay, because they are a lower division school.

Notice that in every case except uga we scored more than teams typically allow, and on average we have scored about 6 more points than opposing defenses allow. Of course, that stat is inflated by turnovers that WKU gave us.

OTOH, with our inexperienced QB and WRs, I would actually expect us to be below average...that is, score a bit less than what teams typically allow. Instead, we are slightly above average.

I was a bit surprised at this....and I take it as a sign that our coaches, while maybe not in the Lombardi class, are at least getting out of our talent what they should.
 
#2
#2
Does this really prove anything about what we are getting out of talent? Who are the other teams S. Alabama played, for instance? Southern Utah and Western Kentucky? That we were able to average 1 more point than those teams did against them says what, really?
 
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#3
#3
Re-calculate without our defensive and special teams scores. Our offense has not over achieved.
 
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#4
#4
oregonvol said:
Does this really prove anything about what we are getting out of talent? Who are the other teams S. Alabama played, for instance? Southern Utah and Western Kentucky? That we were able to average 1 more point than those teams did against them says what, really?
Click to expand...

DEBBIE DOWNER?
tumblr_m6g0io4QKH1qcqv7c.gif
 
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#10
#10
I haven't really seen much offense this year, but the defense has scored more than what was predicted. The next 4 games will make or break this team, unfortunately.
 
#11
#11
tim said:
Re-calculate without our defensive and special teams scores. Our offense has not over achieved.
Click to expand...


Every team has special team and defensive scores. It's part of the game. Every team we have faced has allowed other teams' to score on D and special teams.

So it's a wash.
 
#12
#12
oregonvol said:
Does this really prove anything about what we are getting out of talent? Who are the other teams S. Alabama played, for instance? Southern Utah and Western Kentucky? That we were able to average 1 more point than those teams did against them says what, really?
Click to expand...

Right. Who are the other teams that Uga, Florida, and Oregon played?

Try LSU (twice), Clemson, Washington, South Carolina and you probably should count Missouri.

So yes, :clapping::clapping::clapping::clapping: thank you for pointing out that we played two weak teams! You are SO SMART. :clapping::clapping::clapping::clapping:

But allow me to point out that we played three teams ranked in the top eleven when we played them, all of whom have played multiple ranked teams.
 
#13
#13
reVOLving door said:
Anyone who says our offense is overachieving has been watching a different football team than I have. gmafb.
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This is what I love...you "watched the team" and you didn't like the way the offense looked, so they must suck.

I'm looking at black and white facts, and drawing a conclusion. It's not based on an alcohol soaked viewing of my team and "how I feel" or "what I wish I would see".

It's unbiased. The stats say our offense is performing at a slightly above average level compared to how the teams we play have done against their other opposition.

Mind you, I'm not saying they are good...not saying that at all. I AM saying they are better than I expected. And frankly, prior to the season, looking at all the NFL talent we lost, I was afraid they would be worse than they are.

The facts say they are a bit better than expected. Nothing to get that excited about, but maybe something to build on.
 
#14
#14
BanditVol said:
Every team has special team and defensive scores. It's part of the game. Every team we have faced has allowed other teams' to score on D and special teams.

So it's a wash.
Click to expand...

It's not a wash unless u prove it is...

We've had some very opportunistic defensive and special teams plays this year, scoring and putting us into good field position.

Our offense has in no way "overachieved"...it's definitely progressing, but we're not overachieving
 
#15
#15
BanditVol said:
This is what I love...you "watched the team" and you didn't like the way the offense looked, so they must suck.

I'm looking at black and white facts, and drawing a conclusion. It's not based on an alcohol soaked viewing of my team and "how I feel" or "what I wish I would see".

It's unbiased. The stats say our offense is performing at a slightly above average level compared to how the teams we play have done against their other opposition.

Mind you, I'm not saying they are good...not saying that at all. I AM saying they are better than I expected. And frankly, prior to the season, looking at all the NFL talent we lost, I was afraid they would be worse than they are.

The facts say they are a bit better than expected. Nothing to get that excited about, but maybe something to build on.
Click to expand...

Overachieving, a bit, and average are 2 different things. It's all semantics.

Justin Worley 6-5 121.5 82-147-6 55.8 940 9 51 156.7
Nathan Peterman 4-1 42.5 10-23-2 43.5 45 0 15 11.2
Total.......... 6 110.8 92-170-8 54.1 985 9 51 164.2
Opponents...... 6 117.3 109-203-11 53.7 1445 9 57 240.8
 
#16
#16
BanditVol said:
Every team has special team and defensive scores. It's part of the game. Every team we have faced has allowed other teams' to score on D and special teams.

So it's a wash.
Click to expand...

Our defense is keeping us in games. You might need to re-watch this season over.

WKU? 7 TO's.
USA? 3 INT's.
Florida? 3 TO's. -- OUR OFFENSE GAVE IT UP 6 TIMES.

Our offense IS a wash.
 
#17
#17
reVOLving door said:
Overachieving, a bit, and average are 2 different things. It's all semantics.

Justin Worley 6-5 121.5 82-147-6 55.8 940 9 51 156.7
Nathan Peterman 4-1 42.5 10-23-2 43.5 45 0 15 11.2
Total.......... 6 110.8 92-170-8 54.1 985 9 51 164.2
Opponents...... 6 117.3 109-203-11 53.7 1445 9 57 240.8
Click to expand...

Our QB play has sucked this year. Never said it didn't. The bottom line is the score, and we are scoring on average MORE than the defenses we have faced are giving up. Which is surprising. I didn't expect that. That doesn't mean our offense is GOOD, just that they are doing better than I thought.

And why are we scoring more? A big part of it is this (rushing stats vs opp rush D):

29 Tennessee 6 3-3 236 1,266 5.36 12 211.0

4 Florida 6 4-2 156 500 3.21 5 83.3
Georgia 6 4-2 221 838 3.79 11 139.7
48 South Ala. 5 2-3 169 731 4.33 5 146.2
73 Western Ky. 6 4-2 213 1,005 4.72 11 167.5
34 Oregon 6 6-0 243 826 3.40 5 137.7

We have run for a quite a few more yards than the teams above are allowing...the trade of sucky QB play and good to almost great RB play is on the positive side, by a small margin.
 
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#18
#18
volsfansince4387 said:
Our defense is keeping us in games. You might need to re-watch this season over.

WKU? 7 TO's.
USA? 3 INT's.
Florida? 3 TO's. -- OUR OFFENSE GAVE IT UP 6 TIMES.

Our offense IS a wash.
Click to expand...

In spite of which, even factoring out the WKU game, where we beat their defensive points allowed by 28, it's dead even.

Which, again, is not what I would expect. I would expect that we would be FAR BELOW what teams typically allow.

If we can continue to develop a passing attack, we will win some games in November...maybe even sweep it, IMO.
 
#19
#19
VolBadger said:
It's not a wash unless u prove it is...

We've had some very opportunistic defensive and special teams plays this year, scoring and putting us into good field position.

Our offense has in no way "overachieved"...it's definitely progressing, but we're not overachieving
Click to expand...

You prove it! I'm not going to go look up stats for you. But if you read the OP, I DID say that WKU skewed the stats. We had 2 direct defensive scores in that game and probably another TD or two that was set up by turnovers.

But even if you factor out that game, we are scoring right at what other teams allow.

"progressing" is a fair assessment...

All I am saying is my expectation would be that on average we score LESS than what teams typcially allow and that's not the case...not even against UF, and they have one of the best D's in the country.
 
#20
#20
Anybody who says the offense is over achieving doesn't even deserve to talk about Ut football.
 
#21
#21
No. I think the stats show the O is improving... sometimes in leaps and sometimes in baby steps... but improving.

The best "game" they have played was the 2nd half vs UGA. Jones told the announcers before the game, repeated at the half, and repeated after the game that their goal was to have a shot to win at the beginning of the 4th qtr. They played not to lose it in the 1st half intentionally. If the 1st half production had been similar to the 2nd half... they'd have put over 500 yds on UGA.

It is all a matter of confidence and growth. I doubt Jones will think he has to protect his O like that again this season... and probably couldn't get away with it even if he tried.
 
#23
#23
reVOLving door said:
Overachieving, a bit, and average are 2 different things. It's all semantics.

Justin Worley 6-5 121.5 82-147-6 55.8 940 9 51 156.7
Nathan Peterman 4-1 42.5 10-23-2 43.5 45 0 15 11.2
Total.......... 6 110.8 92-170-8 54.1 985 9 51 164.2
Opponents...... 6 117.3 109-203-11 53.7 1445 9 57 240.8
Click to expand...

BTW...I don't even know what "opponents" is. Is that the average of the QBs we have faced? Or is that the average Pass Efficiency D of our opponents?

Because comparing QBs doens't make a whole lot of sense in this case, other than to emphasize that Worley and Peterman suck compared to QBs like Maniotta (sp...Oregon QB) and Murray. And while SOLA and WKU are Sun Belt teams, their QBs were both experienced seniors with decent stats also.

So what is that bottom stat?
 
#24
#24
jgvol1986 said:
Anybody who says the offense is over achieving doesn't even deserve to talk about Ut football.
Click to expand...

What? No comment on the stats? I suspect you lack the math skills to even BEGIN to discuss them, but feel free to prove me wrong. :)
 
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