stock market was up today...

#9,201
#9,201
Rasputin_Vol said:
I finally got my last 5 oz of 2019 platinum eagles. At some point, PT has got to rebound if companies need to substitute PT for PD if the price gets too high.
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Got 10 more toz of PT Eagles this week. Just found out an hour ago the US Mint suddenly shutdown yesterday. I was planning on putting in another order but now that is looking dicey. Either coronavirus drama or sudden drop in metal prices (or both) caused that shutdown.
 
#9,202
#9,202
Rasputin_Vol said:
You really think this is all over coronavirus?... Or that really it is a convenient time for a selloff and cash in on 10+ years of a bull market?
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The corona virus may just be the event that pops the bubble. The bond market might finally be saying “no” to the spending spree Uncle Sam has been on for the last 18 years. This economy was never really that healthy to begin with because of runaway national debt, exploding deficits, the fed pumping equities, record levels of consumer and corporate debt, etc. Go long on ink and paper for the record amount of printing that’s going to occur. The fed shot their wad after the last financial crisis.
 
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#9,203
#9,203
MOOOOONEY said:
Just looking at Carnival’s max chart they have had huge dips before and always rebound to record highs.

The wuhan virus may destroy the cruise industry or everything returns to normal in a couple of months and cruise stocks sky rocket.

I am financially secure enough to gamble $2250 dollars.
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If cruise lines could offer guaranteed virus free cruises by screening passengers and crew before they board the ship, they could make a boatload of money (pun). What better place to spend during this then out as sea for a few weeks.
 
#9,204
#9,204
midnight orange said:
The corona virus may just be the event that pops the bubble. The bond market might finally be saying “no” to the spending spree Uncle Sam has been on for the last 18 years. This economy was never really that healthy to begin with because of runaway national debt, exploding deficits, the fed pumping equities, record levels of consumer and corporate debt, etc. Go long on ink and paper for the record amount of printing that’s going to occur. The fed shot their wad after the last financial crisis.
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Agree on all of this. I think those that are in the mind state of buying the dips will find themselves trying to catch falling knives. When we come out of this, however, this could end up. Being a net positive for our economy and humanity. Why are companies like Fakebook multibillion dollar companies when they don't even sell a tangible widget? Meanwhile, a company like GE, that 60 years ago actually sold widgets that were in every household in America abandoned that business and went into media and banking instead. People commuting to work will diminish significantly now that the cat is out of the bag... and if enough Americans have the backbone to stand up to their companies. What affect will that have on oil demand? Highway projects? Commercial real estate? Urban sprawl?
 
#9,205
#9,205
Rasputin_Vol said:
Agree on all of this. I think those that are in the mind state of buying the dips will find themselves trying to catch falling knives. When we come out of this, however, this could end up. Being a net positive for our economy and humanity. Why are companies like Fakebook multibillion dollar companies when they don't even sell a tangible widget? Meanwhile, a company like GE, that 60 years ago actually sold widgets that were in every household in America abandoned that business and went into media and banking instead. People commuting to work will diminish significantly now that the cat is out of the bag... and if enough Americans have the backbone to stand up to their companies. What affect will that have on oil demand? Highway projects? Commercial real estate? Urban sprawl?
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I’m cautiously optimistic long term. Other positives that could occur would be alternate currencies coming to fruition because people realize that the government power to coin has been a disaster. The government will lose all trust of even the “believers”, which is healthy. Government won’t be able to “provide” public education, which technology has already rendered antiquated. What does scare me is that I think it’s a good possibility that the public will find comfort in a socialist like Bernie, which will exacerbate the situation.
 
#9,208
#9,208
Rasputin_Vol said:
You really think this is all over coronavirus?... Or that really it is a convenient time for a selloff and cash in on 10+ years of a bull market?
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Coronavirus. Chinese manufacturing was put on hold. Supply chains were disrupted. The US consumer drives economies and their habits have been altered.

The DJIA has doubled once in the last 20+ years.
 
#9,210
#9,210
Orange_Vol1321 said:
Well they will definitely jump back up after this is over. Isn't the time to buy now at their lowpoint?
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Low points can easily be zero. Delta once went to zero and was then recapitalized. The common stock holders received nothing. On the other hand, Lockheed Aircraft nearly went to zero in the 1970s and is now valued at around 500x more today as Lockheed-Martin.

There are a lot of variables. Does the government bail them out and if they do would they just bailout the operation and the jobs but not the owners of the equity and debt?

They better have very strong balance sheets in order to maintain their viability as going concerns. Revenues have surely plummeted by well over 50%.

I'm not interested in cruise lines, airlines, or Boeing right now. Things do change quickly though. I'd love to own BA if they can stabilize. Their consumer side is a disaster, but they do have those defense and aerospace businesses.
 
#9,211
#9,211
MOOOOONEY said:
And in 3 months if the wuhan virus scare is over it will be back
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I haven't studied their financials and it's a lot of speculation reconciling where they stand today relative to what was last published. They could be looking at negative revenue for a while if cancellations are surging while bookings are crashing. Daily sales figures would be informational gold. Insider purchase filings will be a great indicator.
 
#9,212
#9,212
Rasputin_Vol said:
Agree on all of this. I think those that are in the mind state of buying the dips will find themselves trying to catch falling knives. When we come out of this, however, this could end up. Being a net positive for our economy and humanity. Why are companies like Fakebook multibillion dollar companies when they don't even sell a tangible widget? Meanwhile, a company like GE, that 60 years ago actually sold widgets that were in every household in America abandoned that business and went into media and banking instead. People commuting to work will diminish significantly now that the cat is out of the bag... and if enough Americans have the backbone to stand up to their companies. What affect will that have on oil demand? Highway projects? Commercial real estate? Urban sprawl?
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"Fakebook" sells information and the distribution of information. In this same post you suggest that commuting to work will diminish significantly. So more workers will instead be online more, right? Which companies will own that space? Not the asphalt and tire producers.

The economy is far from 100% the production of tangible goods. Services are a huge component. The highest compensated professionals sell their services. Doctors don't manufacture widgets. If you're a big proponent of owning physical metal, that's just minerals that have been deposited somewhere on Earth for millions of years that humans have simply extracted, transported, and speculated on the value of.
 
#9,213
#9,213
midnight orange said:
The corona virus may just be the event that pops the bubble. The bond market might finally be saying “no” to the spending spree Uncle Sam has been on for the last 18 years. This economy was never really that healthy to begin with because of runaway national debt, exploding deficits, the fed pumping equities, record levels of consumer and corporate debt, etc. Go long on ink and paper for the record amount of printing that’s going to occur. The fed shot their wad after the last financial crisis.
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The opposite has been happening.
 
#9,214
#9,214
This wasn't directed at Wall Street but it's a good assessment of economic activity in general for the next month+.

 
#9,218
#9,218
Velo Vol said:
@Thunder Good-Oil your equity commentary is quite analytical.

Your political commentary, on the other hand . . .
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Pardon me for:

Believing that US citizens don't need to give up more rights or freedoms.

Not believing that EVERYTHING Orange Man does is bad.

Understanding that socialism is evil.

Obviously being a mysogenist because I believe that Hillary, Nancy, Beth, AOC, and Maxine are horrible people and/or leaders.

Being xenophobic and racist because of my opinion of the last two.

Not believing taking more gun rights away from law abiding citizens solves anything.

Understanding that government is already too big and taxes are too high. And that additional legislation will not solve society's problems.

Believing that when taxes are reduced, those that are paying the most deserve to benefit the most.

For not believing that virtue signaling is valid when it entails taking property from somebody else and using it for what I think is appropriate.

Understanding the difference between spending on welfare programs that create perpetual government oversight and investing in economic programs that will generate a return.

Wanting to control who can travel across the borders into our country and limit what benefits are granted to those that arrived here illegally or are born to those that aren't here legally.

Recognizing that the governments of China, Iran, North Korea, and other countries aren't our friends.
 
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#9,219
#9,219
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Pardon me for:

Believing that US citizens don't need to give up more rights or freedoms.

Not believing that EVERYTHING Orange Man does is bad.

Understanding that socialism is evil.

Obviously being a mysogenist because I believe that Hillary, Nancy, Beth, AOC, and Maxine are horrible people and/or leaders.

Being xenophobic and racist because of my opinion of the last two.

Not believing taking more gun rights away from law abiding citizens solves anything.

Understanding that government is already too big and taxes are too high. And that additional legislation will not solve society's problems.

Believing that when taxes are reduced, those that are paying the most deserve to benefit the most.

For not believing that virtue signaling is valid when it entails taking property from somebody else and using it for what I think is appropriate.

Understanding the difference between spending on welfare programs that create perpetual government oversight and investing in economic programs that will generate a return.

Wanting to control who can travel across the borders into our country and limit what benefits are granted to those that arrived here illegally or are born to those that aren't here legally.

Recognizing that the governments of China, Iran, North Korea, and other countries aren't our friends.
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Yeah but you are a dairy product racist xenophobe. Just sayin’ 😬
 
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#9,220
#9,220
midnight orange said:
The corona virus may just be the event that pops the bubble. The bond market might finally be saying “no” to the spending spree Uncle Sam has been on for the last 18 years. This economy was never really that healthy to begin with because of runaway national debt, exploding deficits, the fed pumping equities, record levels of consumer and corporate debt, etc. Go long on ink and paper for the record amount of printing that’s going to occur. The fed shot their wad after the last financial crisis.
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I've said forever, one way or another this spending will be forced to a screeching halt and many programs will collapse under their own weight. Cannot imagine the chaos that ensues when SS, Medicare, welfare, food stamps, etc. get pared by 50% or more.
 
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#9,222
#9,222
SpaceCoastVol said:
I wouldn't touch them right now. But thats just me, and I have been bullish on DAL for a long time.
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Doing my second OE later today. Imagine with our cuts I'll get bumped back to reserve. Hoping to be able to still hold a commutable line though. IF this goes long enough and they put out a displacement bid, probably go to DTW for a period of time.
 
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