stock market was up today...

#10,001
#10,001
SpaceCoastVol said:
Yeah the only problem is that guys like him and the BODs aren't the ones that suffer. It is the 80,000 worker bees that lose pensions and homes. He's just gonna jump in his Tesla and go to his beach condo and clip coupons and won't miss a beat in his life.
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Yeah I get that. These ceo types have become so corrupt and flippant about everything something needs to happen to restore order. I can't count the number of airlines that I used to fly on that are no longer around and somehow we got by. PanAm, TWA, Eastern and on and on.
 
#10,002
#10,002
VolStrom said:
That guy makes me sick. They didn't have any cash reserves to speak of because they used them all to buy back stock and enrich the upper management so when a pandemic shows up on their door they come crawling to the government. When the government gives them money and says they only have to repay 1/3rd of it but these are conditions they say okay, but we still will figure out a way to enrich our stock holders and upper management.
They should just let the airlines all file for bankruptcy and let the cards fall where they will.
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Wait what? For every 3 dollars borrowed they only have to pay back 1? WTF oh HELL no! I misunderstood that then.
 
#10,006
#10,006
NorthDallas40 said:
Ah ok thx. Still sounds pretty damn ridiculous though.
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I want to borrow money and only pay back 33%, where do I go? Oh and I'll also tell the suckers I borrowed it from to eff off, I'll do whatever I want with the money. Oh, and as additional terms I'll make you pay extra for sitting in a crappy seat on a crowded tube with grouchy old employees telling you what to do. We have become sheep.
 
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#10,007
#10,007
VolStrom said:
I want to borrow money and only pay back 33%, where do I go? Oh and I'll also tell the suckers I borrowed it from to eff off, I'll do whatever I want with the money. Oh, and as additional terms I'll make you pay extra for sitting in a crappy seat on a crowded tube with grouchy old employees telling you what to do. We have become sheep.
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No **** where do I get in on this action.
 
#10,009
#10,009
Velo Vol said:
Start with the title. It's not going to be "over" for a year or more.
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No way to know at this point. On multiple levels.

It will be “over” from a market volatility standpoint once the market feels the worst is behind us and stability in the economy has returned.
 
#10,010
#10,010
SpaceCoastVol said:
Yeah the only problem is that guys like him and the BODs aren't the ones that suffer. It is the 80,000 worker bees that lose pensions and homes. He's just gonna jump in his Tesla and go to his beach condo and clip coupons and won't miss a beat in his life.
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Maybe... or maybe not. Bailout fear and misinformation is about as prevalent as this coronavirus misinfo.

 
#10,011
#10,011
Until we let capitalism work, take the good with the bad, and let these companies fail for not having a war chest for times like this, these bailouts will continue. My 401K/Pension will take the hit either way.

Let. Them. Fail.

This is capitalism or it isn’t.
 
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#10,012
#10,012
85SugarVol said:
No way to know at this point. On multiple levels.

It will be “over” from a market volatility standpoint once the market feels the worst is behind us and stability in the economy has returned.
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There's a real possibility there could be a second wave (e.g., in the fall) and that doesn't seem to be factored into projections.

Anyway, this is interesting.

 
#10,013
#10,013
lawgator1 said:
So, what do people think?

Is the current market upturn a rational and forward look at corporate income and profits based on a quicker than expected recovery? Or, is it simply mirroring the better news of the last few days?

And, at current levels, has the market priced in the terrible numbers for the second quarter, the patchwork numbers for the third quarter, and an uneven recovery through the next year +?

It does seem to me like the market for the next year or so is going to be a gambler's dream. Some companies will report as expected lower numbers and give lower guidance, accordingly. Restaurant and hospitality-based companies will have ugly reports for a period of time. But someone come along and measurably beat expectations? Feels like they'll pop way out of proportion to the news just because they offer a glimmer.
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I'm not a believer in the rally (which probably means it's legit haha). I think we end up going significantly lower.

However, if you have a 10 year outlook on your holdings you can probably buy quality stuff and not worry about it.

Disney, for example, was trading around $150 pre-crisis and is now around $100. Will it go to $85? Maybe it will. But in a decade it's probably trading around $200-250.

There are a lot of quality banks with market caps well below their book values right now. They're probably going to weather a tough storm for 2 years or so but they'll look like a steal 5-10 years from now.
 
#10,014
#10,014
volinbham said:
I consulted for a company that did independent market checks on sell-side analyst reports. The key differentiator was explicitly not talking to management (conf calls, etc) of the companies covered and holding no positions in companies covered. Clients for this were institutional investors. Most findings confirmed analyst guidance - big wins for clients was when we had credible info that guidance was off (up or down).
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That makes sense. I worked for a small cap value contrarian firm. Our 20 year annualized net return was 12.6%, so we were typically ranked very high for our asset class. We did all our research in house.

UT was a client by the way
 
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#10,015
#10,015
Velo Vol said:
How is the publicized "price target" derived?
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I believe it's an average of the published target prices from sell side analysts. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that's how they get the number. So a company that is covered by a large number of analyst probably has a more realistic target price. As oppose to a company with only 3 or 4 analysts covering the company
 
#10,019
#10,019
You know I’ve sit on the sidelines thru all of this. The worst financial news is just coming out and the second qtr is going to be a blood bath yet the market has largely recovered. I missed my initial buy in point as it hit my trigger but before I could get in it bounced right back up so I decided to wait a bit. Oh well you snooze you lose. SMDH.
 
#10,023
#10,023
GoDucks349 said:
I believe it's an average of the published target prices from sell side analysts. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that's how they get the number. So a company that is covered by a large number of analyst probably has a more realistic target price. As oppose to a company with only 3 or 4 analysts covering the company
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I think this is right. Company provides guidance on anticipated performance, analysts apply some industry-level; macro-level data and targets get developed. I used to have access to analyst reports and they were usually close to each other (mostly because they were working from the same data and guidance from the company).

IIRC, these reports were not merged with technical data (the chart guys) to reach price targets.
 
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