stock market was up today...

#10,315
#10,315
Interesting conversation on the stock giants today. How long can their run continue at this pace? Which ones are most likely to fall?



The Rise and the Fall - The Irrelevant Investor

For entertainment purposes, I'll guess rank how sticky the top five are. In other words, which are the most likely to be at the top 10 years from now. Obviously an anti-trust breakup would change this.

1) Amazon
2) Microsoft
3) Apple
4) Google
5) Facebook


EX6BAXtXgAElKLu
 
#10,319
#10,319
MontyPython said:
Technicals turned bad today on some of the bigger tech companies.

Buying SQQQ

Buying Puts RCL, RUTH, CNK
Click to expand...

Almost every company is electing to not provide any guidance for the coming quarter and current year. Equity prices are anybody's guess for a while. It's pretty much flat out gambling or assessing the history while betting on things like good management, balance sheets going into the COVID-19 effect, and observing which companies are busy or closed. People gonna keep using their phones and internet. Not wearing out their cars. Fixing up their houses. Ordering take out and restaurant delivery. Going without non-essential healthcare. Getting drunk. Not renting hotel rooms or buying airplane tickets. Possibly camping and going to the lake. Buying more stuff on-line. Working from home. Not going to health clubs. It's a new world and a lot of it won't ever go back to the old ways.

Health insurance claims might be way down, but on the other hand people could be neglecting preventative care. So insurance companies could see a near term increase in profits while being setup for big claims a bit further out.

6 months or a year ago I was looking to lighten up on Akamai. I've done a 180 and think that they'll be benefiting bigly from the spike in internet video traffic.
 
#10,320
#10,320
Good analysis, TGO.

My $0.02:

The overall market is completely disconnected from economic reality. Yes, I get the markets look 3-6 months forward, but for the Nasdaq 100 to be close to all time highs is insane.

We're at 15% unemployment and growing 3M a week.

Most importantly: I think the markets are misinterpreting the benefits of reopening. Case in point: FL now allows restaurants open, but the catch is only 25% of normal occupancy allowed. This is a formula for failure, plain and simple.

Specific companies I've shorted (via puts / selling short / leveraged inverse ETFs):

RUTH (Ruth's Chris) Luxury $60/steak experience in a to go box? No alcohol sales. Fail. Will likely go Ch.11.

CNK (Cinemark Theatres) Who's up for popcorn and a soda with a mask on? Studios already bypassing theatres directly to online. Think mom will risk taking kids to Lion King 23 this Summer? No way.

RCL (Royal Caribbean Lines) The worst of the group. Petri dish on the sea that caters a luxury product to CV19 vulnerable senior citizens and fat buffet guzzlers. Cash burn rate of $250M/month with zero revenue. Even if and when they're permitted to restart, whose going? Will likely go Ch.11.

QQQ. Nasdaq stock bunch near all-time high. Are you kidding me? Yeah, AMZN, AAPL and MSFT make up 33% of its weight, but stocks are already overvalued PE wise before this hit. Look for a 40%+ drop.

This economic situation is the worst we've seen in 90 years, yet the markets have assumed "normal" business is almost upon us, and a vaccine just around the corner. Nuts.

IMO we're not at the end or even the middle of this thing. We're like 2nd or 3rd inning.... maybe. I hope everyone here is preparing for the worst.

I don't like to bet against the market and buy puts / shorting... stressful as hell. But, I saw this play out in 2007-9, and I think that will pale in comparison to the sh*t storm ahead of us. Good luck all.
 
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#10,321
#10,321
MontyPython said:
This economic situation is the worst we've seen in 90 years, yet the markets have assumed "normal" business is almost upon us, and a vaccine just around the corner. Nuts.

IMO we're not at the end or even the middle of this thing. We're like 2nd or 3rd inning.... maybe. I hope everyone here is preparing for the worst.
Click to expand...
Do you mean 80 years (since the Great Depression)? I think it's simply unknown how easily we'll get out of the hole we're in.

On the plus side, most of the job losses thus far have been categorized as temporary. And, unlike in prior recessions, the government/Fed was quick to provide temporary bridge money.

On the other hand, Powell didn't sound too cheery this morning.
 
#10,322
#10,322
Velo Vol said:
Do you mean 80 years (since the Great Depression)? I think it's simply unknown how easily we'll get out of the hole we're in.

On the plus side, most of the job losses thus far have been categorized as temporary. And, unlike in prior recessions, the government/Fed was quick to provide temporary bridge money.

On the other hand, Powell didn't sound too cheery this morning.
Click to expand...

90 years. Crash of 1929 kicked off the Great Depression.

Job losses are not temporary IMO. Restaurants are again a good example. If now-open ones can seat 1/4 of the guests they could previously, they're only going to hire back one out of three or four wait staffers.

US economy is service-based largely. If it closed down due to interactions, I don't see it opening up much at all. Plus people are in a defensive mindset now and conserving $.
 
#10,323
#10,323
MontyPython said:
90 years. Crash of 1929 kicked off the Great Depression.

Job losses are not temporary IMO. Restaurants are again a good example. If now-open ones can seat 1/4 of the guests they could previously, they're only going to hire back one out of three or four wait staffers.

US economy is service-based largely. If it closed down due to interactions, I don't see it opening up much at all. Plus people are in a defensive mindset now and conserving $.
Click to expand...
But how long do restaurants remain reduced capacity? 1-2 months? And I have yet to hear of any going 25% capacity.. most are 50%.
 
#10,324
#10,324
MontyPython said:
Good analysis, TGO.

My $0.02:

The overall market is completely disconnected from economic reality. Yes, I get the markets look 3-6 months forward, but for the Nasdaq 100 to be close to all time highs is insane.

We're at 15% unemployment and growing 3M a week.

Most importantly: I think the markets are misinterpreting the benefits of reopening. Case in point: FL now allows restaurants open, but the catch is only 25% of normal occupancy allowed. This is a formula for failure, plain and simple.

Specific companies I've shorted (via puts / selling short / leveraged inverse ETFs):

RUTH (Ruth's Chris) Luxury $60/steak experience in a to go box? No alcohol sales. Fail. Will likely go Ch.11.

CNK (Cinemark Theatres) Who's up for popcorn and a soda with a mask on? Studios already bypassing theatres directly to online. Think mom will risk taking kids to Lion King 23 this Summer? No way.

RCL (Royal Caribbean Lines) The worst of the group. Petri dish on the sea that caters a luxury product to CV19 vulnerable senior citizens and fat buffet guzzlers. Cash burn rate of $250M/month with zero revenue. Even if and when they're permitted to restart, whose going? Will likely go Ch.11.

QQQ. Nasdaq stock bunch near all-time high. Are you kidding me? Yeah, AMZN, AAPL and MSFT make up 33% of its weight, but stocks are already overvalued PE wise before this hit. Look for a 40%+ drop.

This economic situation is the worst we've seen in 90 years, yet the markets have assumed "normal" business is almost upon us, and a vaccine just around the corner. Nuts.

IMO we're not at the end or even the middle of this thing. We're like 2nd or 3rd inning.... maybe. I hope everyone here is preparing for the worst.

I don't like to bet against the market and buy puts / shorting... stressful as hell. But, I saw this play out in 2007-9, and I think that will pale in comparison to the sh*t storm ahead of us. Good luck all.
Click to expand...
The losses are already baked in.

Trump will still get elected, Chump.
 
#10,325
#10,325
MontyPython said:
The overall market is completely disconnected from economic reality. Yes, I get the markets look 3-6 months forward, but for the Nasdaq 100 to be close to all time highs is insane.

We're at 15% unemployment and growing 3M a week.

Most importantly: I think the markets are misinterpreting the benefits of reopening. Case in point: FL now allows restaurants open, but the catch is only 25% of normal occupancy allowed. This is a formula for failure, plain and simple.

Specific companies I've shorted (via puts / selling short / leveraged inverse ETFs):

RUTH (Ruth's Chris) Luxury $60/steak experience in a to go box? No alcohol sales. Fail. Will likely go Ch.11.

CNK (Cinemark Theatres) Who's up for popcorn and a soda with a mask on? Studios already bypassing theatres directly to online. Think mom will risk taking kids to Lion King 23 this Summer? No way.

RCL (Royal Caribbean Lines) The worst of the group. Petri dish on the sea that caters a luxury product to CV19 vulnerable senior citizens and fat buffet guzzlers. Cash burn rate of $250M/month with zero revenue. Even if and when they're permitted to restart, whose going? Will likely go Ch.11.

QQQ. Nasdaq stock bunch near all-time high. Are you kidding me? Yeah, AMZN, AAPL and MSFT make up 33% of its weight, but stocks are already overvalued PE wise before this hit. Look for a 40%+ drop.

This economic situation is the worst we've seen in 90 years, yet the markets have assumed "normal" business is almost upon us, and a vaccine just around the corner. Nuts.

IMO we're not at the end or even the middle of this thing. We're like 2nd or 3rd inning.... maybe. I hope everyone here is preparing for the worst.

I don't like to bet against the market and buy puts / shorting... stressful as hell. But, I saw this play out in 2007-9, and I think that will pale in comparison to the sh*t storm ahead of us. Good luck all.
Click to expand...

Now you are starting to turn the corner and realize that the stock market reflects nothing that is actually going on in the real economy. I've been saying this since 2012-2013.
 
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