stock market was up today...

#10,929
#10,929
Rasputin_Vol said:
Yes, you can redeem the shares for gold.







The ETF doesn't have nearly enough gold to cover each share of GLD. That is the point.

You've got today about 428,600,000 shares outstanding. That is equivalent to 4286 baskets. Meanwhile, 1 basket is 10,000 toz of gold. So that means that in order to be able to redeem 4286 baskets, they would need 42,860,000 toz of gold in their holdings. Yet, their actual holdings (as of a about 45 days ago) was 5 million toz short.
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No you can't. The dude buying 100 shares of GLD in his Ameritrade account isn't an "authorized participant."

How SPDR GOLD Shares are Created and Redeemed
 
#10,934
#10,934
85SugarVol said:
What looming economic developments are going to cause Amazon to pop?

People stop shopping online?
A move away from cloud computing?
Grocery stores being supplanted?
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It wouldn't be a looming economic development per se - it'd be valuation. Amazon's currently trading at 130x earnings. To say that the stock, and the stock market generally speaking, is rich at these levels would be an understatement. The S&P is currently trading at about 30x earnings - it's long-term historical average is about 15x.

However that doesn't mean it can't keep going higher, especially when there is no alternative (fixed income/cash yields you nothing). As expensive as stocks are, fixed income seems even more expensive.
 
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#10,935
#10,935
05_never_again said:
It wouldn't be a looming economic development per se - it'd be valuation. Amazon's currently trading at 130x earnings. To say that the stock, and the stock market generally speaking, is rich at these levels would be an understatement. However that doesn't mean it can't keep going higher, especially when there is no alternative (fixed income/cash yields you nothing).
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Yea, that’s at least a cogent argument. Better than anything else put forth in this thread.

I think investors have shown they are fine with the multiple, high as it might be compared to some others. And it’s actually been coming down over the last few years -

98323142-4A5A-427E-9F10-BB17ABEC79D4.jpeg

While it’s EPS continues to climb -

6BA9A9A0-9FD9-4F78-8D81-B103548EE502.jpeg
 
#10,936
#10,936
85SugarVol said:
Yea, that’s at least a cogent argument. Better than anything else put forth in this thread.

I think investors have shown they are fine with the multiple, high as it might be compared to some others. And it’s actually been coming down over the last few years -

View attachment 302762

While it’s EPS continues to climb -

View attachment 302763
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The extreme valuations AMZN was trading at 3-4 years ago, when they weren't even a consistently profitable company, actually ended up being justified. The market was pricing in AMZN being a wildly profitable company within a few years, and that's exactly what happened.

At some point the market will want to figure out and eventually see where future growth is going to come from. Not quite like it was, but the expectations are still there. And if they miss even slightly, the stock will get hammered. AMZN has so many tailwinds in their business at this point (you mentioned the 3 biggest ones) that I see the stock only suffering if the valuation gets out of control, which is possible, because even if they wobble just a little bit on earnings the stock instantly becomes wildly overvalued. No room for error.
 
#10,937
#10,937
05_never_again said:
The extreme valuations AMZN was trading at 3-4 years ago, when they weren't even a consistently profitable company, actually ended up being justified. The market was pricing in AMZN being a wildly profitable company within a few years, and that's exactly what happened.

At some point the market will want to figure out and eventually see where future growth is going to come from. Not quite like it was, but the expectations are still there. And if they miss even slightly, the stock will get hammered. AMZN has so many tailwinds in their business at this point (you mentioned the 3 biggest ones) that I see the stock only suffering if the valuation gets out of control, which is possible, because even if they wobble just a little bit on earnings the stock instantly becomes wildly overvalued. No room for error.
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I may not be alive when it happens, but all of these Titans get taken down eventually. Look at Sears, Circuit City, Montgomery Wards the list goes on forever. I used to be a believer in Amazon and have been a Prime member since they started the program nearly 20 years ago. Their service is slipping, their deliver is slipping and their prices aren't very good anymore. They will be supplanted in the next 10 years by a better company. I wish I knew who, but I watched these giants come and go for decades
 
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#10,939
#10,939
05_never_again said:
I've tried to explain that to him too, but I don't think he seems to get that either.
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I am fully aware that the average person doesn't have 100k shares in order to stand for redemption.

My question to you and others will be what happens to the value of your 50 or 100 shares of GLD when a client does stand for delivery on their gold and they don't accept a cash equivalent payout? Once word gets out that they dont have enough gold to settle, the value of your GLD shares will fall quickly and you won't be able to sell them fast enough.
 
#10,940
#10,940
05_never_again said:
The extreme valuations AMZN was trading at 3-4 years ago, when they weren't even a consistently profitable company, actually ended up being justified. The market was pricing in AMZN being a wildly profitable company within a few years, and that's exactly what happened.

At some point the market will want to figure out and eventually see where future growth is going to come from. Not quite like it was, but the expectations are still there. And if they miss even slightly, the stock will get hammered. AMZN has so many tailwinds in their business at this point (you mentioned the 3 biggest ones) that I see the stock only suffering if the valuation gets out of control, which is possible, because even if they wobble just a little bit on earnings the stock instantly becomes wildly overvalued. No room for error.
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Not that it would do anything from a valuation standpoint, but I think it’s time for Amazon to execute a stock split. It’s been over 20 years. From a purely psychological standpoint, the share price is too high, and contributes to a lot of the “Amazon is overvalued” talk imo.

As far as where “new” growth is going to come from - Amazon is making huge investments in its delivery fleet. Massive investments.

We may be 3-5 years away from seeing Amazon as a major player in the transportation/delivery sphere. We might be able to “ship via” AMZL, same way we ship via UPS or FedEx today.
 
#10,941
#10,941
VolStrom said:
I may not be alive when it happens, but all of these Titans get taken down eventually. Look at Sears, Circuit City, Montgomery Wards the list goes on forever. I used to be a believer in Amazon and have been a Prime member since they started the program nearly 20 years ago. Their service is slipping, their deliver is slipping and their prices aren't very good anymore. They will be supplanted in the next 10 years by a better company. I wish I knew who, but I watched these giants come and go for decades
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Their delivery is slipping? Prime went from 2 days to 1 day.

What the world looks like 50 years from now is anyone’s guess, but no way is Amazon “supplanted” in the next 10 years. That’s crazy talk.
 
#10,944
#10,944
VolStrom said:
I may not be alive when it happens, but all of these Titans get taken down eventually. Look at Sears, Circuit City, Montgomery Wards the list goes on forever. I used to be a believer in Amazon and have been a Prime member since they started the program nearly 20 years ago. Their service is slipping, their deliver is slipping and their prices aren't very good anymore. They will be supplanted in the next 10 years by a better company. I wish I knew who, but I watched these giants come and go for decades
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Of course it'll be supplanted by something else at some point, but the question is what inning are they in? Sears was a giant from the early 1900s until the 1970s, and although they were probably kicked off their perch in the 80s by the likes of Walmart, Home Depot, etc., they were still a profitable company until the 2000s. They had a very long run. AMZN has been a giant for, what, only 10 or 15 years? I still think we're in the early stages of them being an industry titan. They are certainly way earlier in their cycle than other large retailers like Walmart.

And the trajectory of a company isn't always up for a period of time, hitting a peak, then declining...look at Apple. Big player in the 80s, almost went bankrupt in the late 90s, then was rescued by Jobs and became an industry titan in the 2000s and beyond. AMZN will be around a long time.
 
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#10,945
#10,945
05_never_again said:
Of course it'll be supplanted by something else at some point, but the question is what inning are they in? Sears was a giant from the early 1900s until the 1970s, and although they were probably kicked off their perch in the 80s by the likes of Walmart, Home Depot, etc., they were still a profitable company until the 2000s. They had a very long run. AMZN has been a giant for, what, only 10 or 15 years? I still think we're in the early stages of them being an industry titan. They are certainly way earlier in their cycle than other large retailers like Walmart.

And the trajectory of a company isn't always up for a period of time, hitting a peak, then declining...look at Apple. Big player in the 80s, almost went bankrupt in the late 90s, then was rescued by Jobs and became an industry titan in the 2000s and beyond. AMZN will be around a long time.
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Novell, Cisco, and AOL used to dominate. WorldCom, MCI, Sprint, American Motors, Pontiac, Oldsmobile, Mercury... buh bye.
 
#10,946
#10,946
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Novell, Cisco, and AOL used to dominate. WorldCom, MCI, Sprint, American Motors, Pontiac, Oldsmobile, Mercury... buh bye.
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The only good example there is Cisco. Cisco was the player in the space for a long time, and they still are a player, but they've been out-competed and had their lunch eaten by others in a number of respects.

Novell never achieved sustained market dominance to the level of AMZN to begin with; they were to Microsoft was Blackberry was to Apple. AOL was caught up in perhaps the worst corporate merger of all time. MCI/WorldCom collapsed in an accounting scandal. Sprint, AMC, Pontiac/Olds, and Mercury had long days in the sun themselves before eventually folding.

I don't think a competitor is going to come along and eat AMZN's lunch from a technology perspective within the next 5-10 years. The risk of corporate mismanagement or scandal is always there, no different than any other company. But I just don't see another company coming along and out-competing them anytime soon. There will be a point where a competitor(s) out-maneuver them in some way - better technology, better execution of a strategy, etc., but I just don't see it in the foreseeable future.
 
#10,947
#10,947
05_never_again said:
I don't think a competitor is going to come along and eat AMZN's lunch from a technology perspective within the next 5-10 years. The risk of corporate mismanagement or scandal is always there, no different than any other company. But I just don't see another company coming along and out-competing them anytime soon. There will be a point where a competitor(s) out-maneuver them in some way - better technology, better execution of a strategy, etc., but I just don't see it in the foreseeable future.
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Yes, there's years of big data and infrastructure to overcome now, even considering it's a .com.
 
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#10,948
#10,948
Velo Vol said:
Yes, there's years of big data and infrastructure to overcome now, even considering it's a .com.
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Bezos took a lot of heat for it at the time because it delayed the company becoming profitable for a number of years, but the billions and billions of dollars of investment into R&D (instead of using that money to pay a dividend or buy back stock) is really paying off. That almost certainly will give them a technology edge for a while.
 
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#10,949
#10,949
Velo Vol said:
Yes, there's years of big data and infrastructure to overcome now, even considering it's a .com.
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I don’t think most realize the 100’s upon 100’s of Billions of $$$ in investment it would require to take on Amazon at this point.

The biggest threat to Amazon is probably Amazon, at this point.
 
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#10,950
#10,950
05_never_again said:
Bezos took a lot of heat for it at the time because it delayed the company becoming profitable for a number of years, but the billions and billions of dollars of investment into R&D (instead of using that money to pay a dividend or buy back stock) is really paying off. That almost certainly will give them a technology edge for a while.
Click to expand...
Exactly.
 
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