stock market was up today...

[Ernest T. Vol]

Yes. Good news for EMs and small cap companies. The trick is finding investment vehicles that haven’t already taken off are are getting priced to perfection. It might be a mistake but I’m holding back a lot of cash... even with the near zero yields.

I agree. I'm holding more cash than usual as well.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Private equity will have a lot of carnage to pick through as the weaker businesses fail from the COVID shut downs. Blackstone, Carlyle, Apollo, Citi, G Sachs, BoA, Wells, the Morgan’s should all have opportunities and pretty solid floors.

Hedge funds might be handicapped as commercial and industrial real estate might not bounce back soon.

 

[Velo Vol]

Wonder why?

Just another episode of Wall Street ≠ Main Street

 

[Velo Vol]

Yes. Good news for EMs

Do you think the current EM (index fund) run has legs?

 

[Velo Vol]

Financial equities and inflation hedges seem like good (or “safer”) ideas. Green energy seems to have run too far IMO and even oil equities have bounced a bit in anticipation of $4 petro.

Also, is this what you expect?

 

[DancingOutlaw]

I want to buy defense, but I think that the biggest names in weapons will be dead money for a bit longer. I might buy L3-Harris instead of waiting though. This administration will probably neglect the military and the Republicans will have to build it back up down the road. The big names (LMT for example) will take off when the end of the far Left’s disruption is in sight. China and Iran likely become bigger threats. Joe isn’t supposed to be as big of a China backer as he’s been portrayed.

China should be back in favor but Joe is a wild card. Especially companies that were hurt by tariffs. The key is to consider where the equity prices are at... semi-conductor business will be great, but stock prices already reflect much of their projected, positive bottom lines. Intel has lagged the other chip makers.

Hopefully the spending on the economy will be slanted toward rebuilding infrastructure (Martin Marietta Materials). But the pipeline is already under attack. We’ll probably get back to a net importer of energy soon enough, so maybe the biggest Norway ETF does well. Canada as well if the western regions aren’t ruined by their socialists in the east. Hopefully we’ll be replacing bridges and roads rather than giving handouts with the stimulus money.

Financial equities and inflation hedges seem like good (or “safer”) ideas. Green energy seems to have run too far IMO and even oil equities have bounced a bit in anticipation of $4 petro. Next Era Energy should advance. They have great management and will exploit the green economy. Chevron would be a great stock to own if they’re able to preserve that dividend.

I think that Stericycle will benefit from the vaccine deployment. Waste Management’s business seems to be well positioned, although I haven’t looked at the share prices lately.

I’ll be very happy if 2021 markets close up 5-10% from today.

Biden will have us in a shooting war before the end of the year. The people in his cabinet have a raging boner for Syria and Russia and he wants to show off to his European friends that we’re back to white knight for them.

 

[Velo Vol]

Biden will have us in a shooting war before the end of the year.

Against whom?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Also, is this what you expect?

Yes. We won’t be a net exporter much longer. The country will not run on solar and wind. EVs will be a burden on the grid too. But there may not be a lot of fossil fuel plants still burning oil so maybe the demand won’t outpace the reduced supplies of petro. Natty gas should pull out of it’s free fall if GM, Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, and the others go full speed into EVs.

 

[TheColdVolTruth]

Yes. We won’t be a net exporter much longer. The country will not run on solar and wind. EVs will be a burden on the grid too. But there may not be a lot of fossil fuel plants still burning oil so maybe the demand won’t outpace the reduced supplies of petro. Natty gas should pull out of it’s free fall if GM, Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, and the others go full speed into EVs.

I think the biggest factor in nat gas prices seeing any kind of upward pressure would be a fracking ban.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Do you think the current EM (index fund) run has legs?

It’s going to depend on how the post-COVID economy rolls. If the developed world is steady then the EMs will probably out perform. They have an opportunity to grow their production and economies if the anti-China sentiment doesn’t wane. I’d keep an eye on the shipping in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans. Are we going to continue with the free military protection to their commerce? We can pull back as long as we can manage without ME oil.

I’m very much a novice as it comes to world economics. I think that the US$ stays in high demand which has repercussions. Maybe exchange rates favor investing domestically. But I kind of like the less populated, rich countries with natural resources. Canada and Scandinavia. Latin America and the east Asia could do well. South Korea seems to be in pretty good shape. So perhaps developed foreign areas have better near term prospects,

I think that LA has a great opportunity if the anti-China rhetoric sustains. China will keep buying up materials from poorer countries, but as far as investing that opportunity could be offset with currency devaluations relative to the US$.

I guess the logical thing to go is to stay exposed to EMs without being overweighted.

Saying all of that... investment vehicles have to be reconciled with economies. A lot of equities have been front running the expected bottom lines.

 

[Velo Vol]

Yes. We won’t be a net exporter much longer. The country will not run on solar and wind. EVs will be a burden on the grid too. But there may not be a lot of fossil fuel plants still burning oil so maybe the demand won’t outpace the reduced supplies of petro. Natty gas should pull out of it’s free fall if GM, Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, and the others go full speed into EVs.

It could very well be wrong, but EIA is not forecasting $4/gallon petro.

It’s going to depend on how the post-COVID economy rolls. If the developed world is steady then the EMs will probably out perform. They have an opportunity to grow their production and economies if the anti-China sentiment doesn’t wane. I’d keep an eye on the shipping in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans. Are we going to continue with the free military protection to their commerce? We can pull back as long as we can manage without ME oil.

This call seems to match market momentum. But just to be more precise on what I mean by "EM", the ETF I'm in (IEMG) is 35% China. So it's definitely not an anti-China play.

 

[Velo Vol]

It looks like the day traders are at it again.

 

[DancingOutlaw]

It looks like the day traders are at it again.

This doesn't make sense. Redditors are basically buying this stock out of spite. But all their gains are on paper. It's now a Mexican standoff because the underlying fundamentals are bad and if you and your bros try to cash in you tank everyone else's shares.

 

[Velo Vol]

This doesn't make sense. Redditors are basically buying this stock out of spite. But all their gains are on paper. It's now a Mexican standoff because the underlying fundamentals are bad and if you and your bros try to cash in you tank everyone else's shares.

Just subscribed to WSB and am going to try to figure out what goes on there.

 

[DancingOutlaw]

Just subscribed to WSB and am going to try to figure out what goes on there.

My guess would be these guys take a position, pump the stock, profit.

 

[Velo Vol]

GME has been halted nine times today.

 

[Velo Vol]

From the Stock Traders’ Almanac:

"February’s post-election year performance since 1950 is miserable, ranking dead last for S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000. Average losses have been sizable: -1.5%, -3.3% and -1.6% respectively. February ranks tenth for DJIA in post-election years with an average loss of 1.1%. February 2001 and 2009 were exceptionally brutal. NASDAQ dropped 22.4% in February 2001, its third worst monthly loss ever.”

 

[Vol737]

To the investors on here that study more technical aspects of the markets, Is it just me or are the markets acting like they’re losing confidence and getting a little shaky?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

To the investors on here that study more technical aspects of the markets, Is it just me or are the markets acting like they’re losing confidence and getting a little shaky?

I’m not of the technical camp, but a couple of cap weighted averages and a handful of names and industries at crazy valuations get the headlines. The boring names aren’t as risky IMO. Rotating into selective energy, finance, and healthcare stocks isn’t necessarily chasing high valuations.

 

[Vol737]

I’m not of the technical camp, but a couple of cap weighted averages and a handful of names and industries at crazy valuations get the headlines. The boring names aren’t as risky IMO. Rotating into selective energy, finance, and healthcare stocks isn’t necessarily chasing high valuations.

Put some stops in a few days ago on my big gainers over the past eight months. Gut is tugging at me.

 

[newarkvol]

Just subscribed to WSB and am going to try to figure out what goes on there.

Autist nerds on Reddit making a show of how much our economy is a damn casino funhouse BS theater. More praxis than the whole Occupy movement --LMAO

 

[Electric Orange]

 

[Electric Orange]

 

[Velo Vol]

Autist nerds on Reddit making a show of how much our economy is a damn casino funhouse BS theater. More praxis than the whole Occupy movement --LMAO

Is the SEC going to act?

 

[Velo Vol]