stock market was up today...

#12,051
#12,051
SpaceCoastVol said:
I would usually have some long term puts out at this point, but the longest one I have is July, and I'm putting up a fence there. I have stops in for those, and if they hit I will sit back for awhile. I think the schizophrenia comes form Xiden's threats of taxation into the stone age. Once that is absorbed, we can get on with it. But yeah, my mad money accounts are almost 90% cash right now. wrt rebalancing... what areas are you looking at increasing?

Joe's crushing it, isn't he?
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He’s crushing it alright. Holding a lot of cash, looking for a pullback and will probably be in pretty defensive stocks with a solid record of dividends and may just hold a lot of those in ETFs for diversification within the sector. I’m fine being boring and conservative for a while. At least my profits from the past 10 years will be largely protected.
 
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#12,052
#12,052
Vol737 said:
Not sure I like this market very much. Sure, we’re up some since the first of the year, but if the market is forward looking, it sure seems fairly schizophrenic and unsure of what lies ahead. Paring back a lot of positions and getting into more cash than I ever thought I would. Anyone else moving toward rebalancing, getting defensive or cashing out for a while?
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So I finally not the bullet and hired a financial advice firm for my retirement money. We are with a division of the Vampire Squid. They are still bullish on 2021 and see mid to upper single digit returns in equities for the remainder of 2021. Right now at least.
 
#12,053
#12,053
NorthDallas40 said:
So I finally not the bullet and hired a financial advice firm for my retirement money. We are with a division of the Vampire Squid. They are still bullish on 2021 and see mid to upper single digit returns in equities for the remainder of 2021. Right now at least.
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Im newer at this game and I kinda trend on wanting to protect the money in something that won't devalue from massive inflation. Is that tangible assets(like property and metals) and getting away from stock, bonds, etc?
 
#12,054
#12,054
utvols88 said:
Im newer at this game and I kinda trend on wanting to protect the money in something that won't devalue from massive inflation. Is that tangible assets(like property and metals) and getting away from stock, bonds, etc?
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Hellifiknow... 🤷‍♂️

That’s why I finally gave in and hired the Vampire Squid (Goldman Sachs PFM, used to be United Capital)
 
#12,055
#12,055
NorthDallas40 said:
So I finally not the bullet and hired a financial advice firm for my retirement money. We are with a division of the Vampire Squid. They are still bullish on 2021 and see mid to upper single digit returns in equities for the remainder of 2021. Right now at least.
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Yes, I keep seeing GS, JP Morgan, et al all bullish on 2021. I have an account with a CFP and my 401k pretty much mirrors what we’re doing in that account. I’m just getting closer to that time/age where I’m not confident I would have the time to make up for another Black Swan event, that to include the Dems pushing through their destructive wishlists and fundamentally changing the landscape for a long, long time.
 
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#12,056
#12,056
SpaceCoastVol said:
I would usually have some long term puts out at this point, but the longest one I have is July, and I'm putting up a fence there. I have stops in for those, and if they hit I will sit back for awhile. I think the schizophrenia comes form Xiden's threats of taxation into the stone age. Once that is absorbed, we can get on with it. But yeah, my mad money accounts are almost 90% cash right now. wrt rebalancing... what areas are you looking at increasing?

Joe's crushing it, isn't he?
Click to expand...

Infrastructure. It’s pulled back 10-15% off of the recent highs. Both sides can come together to fix bridges and roads instead of giving handouts as a stimulus. Martin-Marietta Materials. Railroads. United Rentals. Even UPS and FedEx probably have their Amazon delivery crash behind them.

Also the demographics for healthcare won’t be going south for a long time. I’ve been trying to purchase Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) for a month or more. I’d like to see it below $700.
 
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#12,057
#12,057
utvols88 said:
Im newer at this game and I kinda trend on wanting to protect the money in something that won't devalue from massive inflation. Is that tangible assets(like property and metals) and getting away from stock, bonds, etc?
Click to expand...

I wouldn’t stay in precious metals, currencies, land, or commodities for the long term. They don’t generate income so compounding returns won’t be available.
 
#12,059
#12,059
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Infrastructure. It’s pulled back 10-15% off of the recent highs. Both sides can come together to fix bridges and roads instead of giving handouts as a stimulus. Martin-Marietta Materials. Railroads. United Rentals. Even UPS and FedEx probably have their Amazon delivery crash behind them.

Also the demographics for healthcare won’t be going south for a long time. I’ve been trying to purchase Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) for a month or more. I’d like to see it below $700.
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Years ago I watched ISRG and missed that opportunity. Not long after that Mako showed up and I kept buying what I could around $12 to $15 hoping it would be the next ISRG. Woke up one morning and it had doubled. Thought there must have been big news and this thing had caught fire, but it wasn't the big news I was hoping for. Stryker had bought them out for around $30/share. And that was that. Wrt your comment on FedEx, a lot of analysts were surmising maybe FedEx would partner with Wal-Mart or even Shopify to compete with Amazon in that space. Haven't really looked at FedEx in a while so that's why I ask. Have they stopped the bleeding wrt market cap? I know Amazon had put a big dent in it and the analysts seemed to think it was urgent they do a deal. Thoughts? Thanks
 
#12,060
#12,060
Vol737 said:
Years ago I watched ISRG and missed that opportunity. Not long after that Mako showed up and I kept buying what I could around $12 to $15 hoping it would be the next ISRG. Woke up one morning and it had doubled. Thought there must have been big news and this thing had caught fire, but it wasn't the big news I was hoping for. Stryker had bought them out for around $30/share. And that was that. Wrt your comment on FedEx, a lot of analysts were surmising maybe FedEx would partner with Wal-Mart or even Shopify to compete with Amazon in that space. Haven't really looked at FedEx in a while so that's why I ask. Have they stopped the bleeding wrt market cap? I know Amazon had put a big dent in it and the analysts seemed to think it was urgent they do a deal. Thoughts? Thanks
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FDX is profitable and doesn’t have a crazy valuation. It’s off about 10% from the 52 week high.

There are 4. FedEx, UPS, USPS, and AMZN. I think that FedEx should be well positioned as their mix is more heavily weighted for business deliveries. I think that working from home will help their volume as employers and employees will send a lot of packages to each other. Original signatures are still necessary on lots of documents.

I think that UPS is more of a retail to consumer shipper.

Overall I see all of them as boring, mature businesses that have pricing power and should be able to throw off cash. Near term the bottom lines will be hit by higher fuel costs, but that might present an opportunity to add shares at a better price. Long term Amazon could be facing anti-trust issues if they ramp up their delivery and shut out the 3 alternatives.

USPS is a great unknown. Fifty-five cents to send an ounce anywhere is hard to compete with, but the non-tracked packages really aren’t the other’s business model.

I think that I’ll add more shares of FedEx in the next year or two. Uncertain if I want to open a position in UPS.
 
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#12,064
#12,064
Thunder Good-Oil said:
And commissions are still way too high. Sticking a sign in a yard and entering info into the MLS system shouldn’t cost sellers thousands of dollars per each $100k. It’s a monopoly that should be broken up.
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There are lots of agents now that will get you in MLS for a flat fee. Usually between $500 and $850. You sell it yourself.
In the middle TN market, being in MLS and paying a 2% buyers agent fee, is all you need to sell a house.
 
#12,065
#12,065
Thunder Good-Oil said:
And commissions are still way too high. Sticking a sign in a yard and entering info into the MLS system shouldn’t cost sellers thousands of dollars per each $100k. It’s a monopoly that should be broken up.
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What is the monopoly component? The MLS? I don't like the commission rates either, but they are not absolute. One can sell a property without the services of a realtor. It's a little harder, but it can be done. At some point, someone will come in with the internet version and trash that industry. I'm too lazy at this point in my life. What I can't stand are all the garbage fees you get charged by the title company and banks. Talk about monopoly....
 
#12,066
#12,066
SpaceCoastVol said:
What is the monopoly component? The MLS? I don't like the commission rates either, but they are not absolute. One can sell a property without the services of a realtor. It's a little harder, but it can be done. At some point, someone will come in with the internet version and trash that industry. I'm too lazy at this point in my life. What I can't stand are all the garbage fees you get charged by the title company and banks. Talk about monopoly....
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This.
 
#12,073
#12,073
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