There's an interesting article out there regarding Chip Kelly and Les Miles' infamous gambles. I read it on yahoo sports I think it basically talked about how they aren't gambling at all but using simple math. I think it was like something along the lines of 4 and 5 or less yardage you have an 80% chance of converting.
That's exactly right, it's playing the odds and KNOWING exactly what the odds are in every situation based on statistics and knowing your O and D and FG kicker very well to quickly decide what the odds of success or failure are in certain situations.
Exactly the same with the best poker players because they KNOW the odds of hitting or missing what they have in every hand so they know when to hold them and when to fold them.
Here's what CDD was thinking at the very end of the game...
Bray has a well known history at the end of games of trying too hard and forcing the situation and throwing a INT more often than he makes the big plays to Win the game right at the end....ODDS were way in favor of Bray throwing a INT so CDD let the clock run out thinking that the odds were much better that we could outscore Mizzou in the OT periods.
I HATED to see CDD do that but I also understand the odds against Bray and the odds against us making a critical FG kick right at the end of the game from what could have been a longer distance than we would have had in OT.
Based on all the known facts the odds did favor us to Win in OT.
If Bray had thrown a INT and Mizzou got a decent run back then They would probably have 30 seconds to move the ball with their passing game and kick the FG to Win right at the end of the game.
I absolutely HATED seeing CDD run the clock out but I do understand the odds against us and why he did that.
The really BAD part of running the clock out and going to OT is that it gave all the momentum to Mizzou and it sent a message to Bray and our O players that CDD didn't have faith and belief in them to get it done with 40 seconds left.
It also sent a message to our FG kicking team that CDD didn't have faith and belief in those 3 guys to execute and make a FG at the end of the game.
Those bad messages of no faith in our O and our FG team took away alot of the confidence in those players and put some amount of doubt in their minds.
The other side of the coin is that doing that should have also sent a good message to our Defense players that CDD had solid faith in them to stop Mizzou from scoring a TD and holding them to only a FG in the OT periods where they started at the 25 yard line.
If I was running things I would have called a timeout, called all the O and FG players over and told them I had total faith in them to go get the Win at the end of the game and told Bray to take zero chances of throwing a INT that might let Mizzou get a shot at a FG and that if we had to go to OT that would be just fine so there was no pressure on him to try and make a miracle throw and that going to OT was just like throwing the ball away rather than to throw a INT.
I hated seeing CDD run the clock out but I do understand why he played the odds the way he did it.
The fake FG play took alot of courage and our boys executed it perfectly for the TD and it's sad that it ended with a loss for my Vols.
I'm so sick of being so damn close and still losing that I could puke.
VFL...GBO!!!
