Talent Comparison Game by Game 2014

#76
#76
McDad said:
I tried to warn you. Be thankful Derek is blessed with abundant patience when explaining.
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I'm clearly not doing a very good job explaining it. What I have learned, more than anything, is that some people just don't want to see. It is as if the majesty in college football lies in their perception of total unpredictability.
 
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#77
#77
McDad said:
I tried to warn you. Be thankful Derek is blessed with abundant patience when explaining.
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I'm sure the guy is extremely intelligent. Practically, there is a big difference in 4-8 and 8-4. I know good and well Missouri and Carolina had way better players than us last season, despite the rivals ratings, and I know having an experienced qb is worth more than .2 wins. Perhaps if you are a horrible team with a senior qb, the numbers get skewed, but in the SEC, when a veteran qb is replaced, you expect to find a drop off in offensive performance.
 
#78
#78
BeattieFeathers said:
I'm sure the guy is extremely intelligent. Practically, there is a big difference in 4-8 and 8-4. I know good and well Missouri and Carolina had way better players than us last season, despite the rivals ratings, and I know having an experienced qb is worth more than .2 wins. Perhaps if you are a horrible team with a senior qb, the numbers get skewed, but in the SEC, when a veteran qb is replaced, you expect to find a drop off in offensive performance.
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I know there is a God but I can't prove it. Derek is telling you what is quantifiable based on statistical analysis.
 
#80
#80
sjt18 said:
Bigger, faster, stronger, quicker, and experience playing against the best teams week in/week out in CFB.

Years ago when I played HS FB, we would always schedule a 4A team for our pre-season scrimmage. We played as 2A but were actually a 1A school. Generally, they beat us pretty good. They exposed every weakness and forced us to play at a higher level. We then went on to generally beat our regular opponents like dogs.

Later around the time Heath Shuler played there, they scheduled 3A teams in the regular season before conference. Very competitive games but my HS lost some of them.... then went on to win big against lower competition.

Playing against the best FORCES you to up your game even when you lose. It shows you what excellence looks like.
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How did it help the 4a school to play you? They play their scrubs a lot for experience?
 
#82
#82
BeattieFeathers said:
I'm sure the guy is extremely intelligent. Practically, there is a big difference in 4-8 and 8-4. I know good and well Missouri and Carolina had way better players than us last season, despite the rivals ratings, and I know having an experienced qb is worth more than .2 wins. Perhaps if you are a horrible team with a senior qb, the numbers get skewed, but in the SEC, when a veteran qb is replaced, you expect to find a drop off in offensive performance.
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So if talent expects 6-6, and you go 4-8 (83% correct), or 8-4 (83% correct) you think that this evaluation fails to illustrate the importance of talent, and the predictability derived from it?
 
#83
#83
*
BeattieFeathers said:
Tell me where I'm off base with my comments?:good!:.
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Here ya go, sport:
"I know good and well Missouri and Carolina had way better players than us last season, despite the rivals ratings, and I know having an experienced qb is worth more than .2 wins."
 
#84
#84
McDad said:
*


Here ya go, sport:
"I know good and well Missouri and Carolina had way better players than us last season, despite the rivals ratings, and I know having an experienced qb is worth more than .2 wins."
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I would say every unbiased critic would agree.....you think Johnny football is worth .2 wins?
 
#85
#85
daj2576 said:
So if talent expects 6-6, and you go 4-8 (83% correct), or 8-4 (83% correct) you think that this evaluation fails to illustrate the importance of talent, and the predictability derived from it?
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I know there is a huge difference in 4-8 and 8-4, let alone 3-9 and 9-3.
 
#86
#86
Can't take anything for granted when you're going to be this young. You could say Tennessee should have beat Missouri last year by that logic.
 
#88
#88
BeattieFeathers said:
I would say every unbiased critic would agree.....you think Johnny football is worth .2 wins?
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Do you realize how profoundly irrelevant what you or I think really is? Derek has stats that back up everthing he says about wins and losses based on 4 year recruiting averages. He also has stats quantifying the importance of losing key positions. You have your gut, your bias, your preconceived concepts and notions. Read what I quoted from you. You know what you saw despite what the recruiting numbers said.
 
#89
#89
Cartervol said:
Can't take anything for granted when you're going to be this young. You could say Tennessee should have beat Missouri last year by that logic.
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Absolutely and he does not deny it. In his analysis, Carolina was not an upset and we should have beaten missouri. In addition, playing an inexperienced qb matters very little. I'm not attacking him because he is far,far,far smarter than me. I'm just not sure his analysis has any practical application. Being a predictor of 70 percent of all games is not saying much at all really. We know everybody has at least three built in wins. We know that the vols have more talent than chattanooga and south alabama without looking.
 
#90
#90
McDad said:
Do you realize how profoundly irrelevant what you or I think really is? Derek has stats that back up everthing he says about wins and losses based on 4 year recruiting averages. He also has stats quantifying the importance of losing key positions. You have your gut, your bias, your preconceived concepts and notions. Read what I quoted from you. You know what you saw despite what the recruiting numbers said.
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I know the averages say the vols had better talent than Carolina and Missouri. That is way off the mark. The vols beating the cocks was a huge upset based on the rest of the season.
 
#91
#91
BeattieFeathers said:
Absolutely and he does not deny it. In his analysis, Carolina was not an upset and we should have beaten missouri. In addition, playing an inexperienced qb matters very little. I'm not attacking him because he is far,far,far smarter than me. I'm just not sure his analysis has any practical application. Being a predictor of 70 percent of all games is not saying much at all really. We know everybody has at least three built in wins. We know that the vols have more talent than chattanooga and south alabama without looking.
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How accurate do you think Vegas is, if you're not impressed with 70% using only recruiting averages?

My cursory numbers indicate that when picking straight winners and losers, ignoring the spread, Vegas is right about 80% of the time. Have you ever considered how complicated the algorithms are that Vegas uses to get that extra 10%?

Do you know that to make money betting in Vegas, you only have to be right (beat the spread) about 54% of the time? These numbers dont beat the spread enough to be lucrative, but they are strong predictors.

From a standpoint of pure predictive ability, any number that gives you a better than a 50/50 shot at being right is a good start. 70/30 is considerably better than that.

I bet if someone told you that you had a 70% chance to be injured tomorrow, you'd think that was a strong enough indicator to change your behavior, but here your resisting the same forewarning with a passion.
 
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#93
#93
BeattieFeathers said:
Absolutely and he does not deny it. In his analysis, Carolina was not an upset and we should have beaten missouri. In addition, playing an inexperienced qb matters very little. I'm not attacking him because he is far,far,far smarter than me. I'm just not sure his analysis has any practical application. Being a predictor of 70 percent of all games is not saying much at all really. We know everybody has at least three built in wins. We know that the vols have more talent than chattanooga and south alabama without looking.
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I'm not suggesting I'm smarter than you. I've never said that. I wouldn't say that, even if I knew it to be true. I just have data that suggests you're inserting too much subjectivity into what can be objectively measured.
 
#95
#95
BeattieFeathers said:
Said another way, there is an 83 percent chance a team predicted to finish 6-6 will have a good year or a bad year. Ok? Is there more to it? It's like waiting on the punch line.....
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I dont know if you're intentionally misrepresenting the numbers or if I'm just really bad at communicating the relevance to you.

If a team is supposed to go 6-6, there is an 80% chance, at least in the SEC, that any team will finish within 2 games of that number. Should a team, predicted 6-6 go either 4-8 or 8-4 the numbers were right 83% of the time.
 
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#96
#96
BeattieFeathers said:
How did it help the 4a school to play you? They play their scrubs a lot for experience?
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We actually pushed them harder than many of their in-season opponents (3A and 4A). They were one of the larger schools in the area and well coached. Our coach and theirs were HS teammates.

They actually didn't have "scrubs". They had a Fr team, a JV team, and then a Sr team made up of mostly Sr's and Jr's AFTER they either told guys to play JV or else cut them. We struggled vs their starters without getting blown out and held our own against their back ups.
 
#97
#97
BeattieFeathers said:
I'm sure the guy is extremely intelligent. Practically, there is a big difference in 4-8 and 8-4. I know good and well Missouri and Carolina had way better players than us last season, despite the rivals ratings, and I know having an experienced qb is worth more than .2 wins. Perhaps if you are a horrible team with a senior qb, the numbers get skewed, but in the SEC, when a veteran qb is replaced, you expect to find a drop off in offensive performance.
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Define "better players". If you are talking about things that Rivals can accurately assess in a HS player then you are wrong. If you are talking about the skills they developed and the coaching they received... then you are probably right.

The USCe game in spite of your refusal to accept it was no fluke. UT matched up well on both LOS's. USCe likes to run downhill whereas the teams that hurt UT most ran outside the tackles. USCe's WR's were good but not great players who played in Spurrier's system. They made themselves easier for UT's DB's to cover.

On D, their strength was in their DL. They made up for some weaknesses in the back 7. UT's O strength was STILL their OL. Except for a better day by Clowney, UT was able to contain their DL.

To some of us, it wasn't a surprise at all.

Failing to recognize that USCe is NOT a top team in terms of talent is to deny what Spurrier has done with the talent he's gotten. The guy can flat coach.
 
#98
#98
daj2576 said:
I dont know if you're intentionally misrepresenting the numbers or if I'm just really bad at communicating the relevance to you.
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If you have followed his posts at all... you are being much too kind by giving the benefit of the doubt.

You and I have disagreed on some interpretations and extent of the numbers. This guy dismisses any fact or reasoning no matter how solid that contradicts is "experienced wisdom".

In case you missed it... he has been determined in his efforts to lower the bar and expectations for UT's football program. He once wrote that UT would never achieve the success of the 90's again implying that we might as well get used to being a 2nd tier program at best.... Bowl here and there... losing season here and there.

The saddest part is that he seems perfectly content with those expectations... and thinks of himself as a great fan.
 
#99
#99
daj2576 said:
I bet if someone told you that you had a 70% chance to be injured tomorrow, you'd think that was a strong enough indicator to change your behavior, but here your resisting the same forewarning with a passion.
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That's because your numbers suggest UT should be better than he wants to allow. He would like to believe that 5 wins will not make coaching questionable and would like to believe that Fulmer was a massive overachiever.
 
#100
#100
sjt18 said:
If you have followed his posts at all... you are being much too kind by giving the benefit of the doubt.

You and I have disagreed on some interpretations and extent of the numbers. This guy dismisses any fact or reasoning no matter how solid that contradicts is "experienced wisdom".

In case you missed it... he has been determined in his efforts to lower the bar and expectations for UT's football program. He once wrote that UT would never achieve the success of the 90's again implying that we might as well get used to being a 2nd tier program at best.... Bowl here and there... losing season here and there.

The saddest part is that he seems perfectly content with those expectations... and thinks of himself as a great fan.
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Beattie gonna be Beattie.

What will he do when we start winning?
 
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