Talent: Why we win on Sunday, and why we win BIG

[Face]

I needed a break at work so I created a simple statistical analysis of USU’s roster talent level based on 3 different models. Any mathematicians out there can analyze as you wish, but here it is.
The recruiting class rankings for USU according to Rivals are as follows:
2014 – 106
2013 – 105
2012 – 117
2011 – 78
The average USU recruiting class for that time interval is 101.5
The % (ignoring the effect of JUCOs) of players on the roster corresponding with each recruiting year are:
2014 – 28.8%
2013 – 26.0%
2012 – 25.0%
2011 – 20.2%
The weighted average recruiting rank by % of class on roster is 102.8.
I made one more weighted average calculation. Assuming half the players starting are SRs, 25% are JRs, 15% are SOs, and 10% are FRs, the w/a recruiting class is 95th.
The average of all calculations is 99.8.

So there you have it. We win Sunday and we win BIG because we are that much better than them in overall talent levels.

Yeah, Chuckie might be good, but he’s not that good.

 

[Peytons forehead]

Math usually hurts my head. But I understood this. Nice job. Just remember, the more talented team doesn't always win.

 

[Hayezb]

But they played USC close that one time...

 

[hardyemt_p]

Math usually hurts my head. But I understood this. Nice job. Just remember, the more talented team doesn't always win.

Ol ball coach is that you

 

[KBVol]

But they played USC close that one time...

And Wisconsin, and Auburn and ....

 

[BearCat204]

Wait.... Do stars matter now.... I forget

 

[supersmo18]

Seriously, nice work, OP.

 

[Special Ed]

...

 

[sjt18]

Talent is why UT should win.

Match ups are why UT should win big.

 

[rok_etop]

Do the same thing for Oaklands men's basketball team for that time span when they beat Pearl and the UT men's team. I'd love to hear how bad we were suppose to beat them.

 

[ballou1024]

Chuckie is a beast...but one man won't beat us on Sunday. He has been practicing in a non-contact jersey all spring and fall. I will be interesting to see how he responds after that first big hit?

 

[TBtheGBwiththeTD]

Do the same thing for Oaklands men's basketball team for that time span when they beat Pearl and the UT men's team. I'd love to hear how bad we were suppose to beat them.

Basketball is way different. But your point still counts

 

[cjbongoinstructor]

Can you go back and run this same analysis on the Wyoming football team from a few years ago as well as ky during brays tenure and candy over the past two years to test this hypothesis and then repost your results? None of those teams had an on the fringe heisman candidate either...

 

[Face]

Talent is why UT should win.

Match ups are why UT should win big.

North on Daniel gray.

That's a joke.

 

[norrislakevol]

Agree with OP....great job. Aside from Keaton they aren't better or equal at any other position.

 

[Face]

Talent is why UT should win.

Match ups are why UT should win big.

North on Daniel gray.

That's a joke.

 

[BruiserVol]

And Wisconsin, and Auburn and ....

We're not supposed to brag about losing to good teams. Remember?

 

[FLVOL_79]

But they played USC close that one time...

And Auburn one time, and Wisconsin one time, and BYU one time, etc. lol:

 

[FLVOL_79]

We're not supposed to brag about losing to good teams. Remember?

The last time we played Wisconsin (I think) was in the Outback bowl and that was a win. Berry almost killed their QB if I remember correctly.

 

[TNVolunteerGrad]

Get the woodshed ready, because that's the only place USU is going to be all game long.

 

[TNVolunteerGrad]

The last time we played Wisconsin (I think) was in the Outback bowl and that was a win. Berry almost killed their QB if I remember correctly.

Hard to believe that was our last bowl win :cray:

 

[FLVOL_79]

Hard to believe that was our last bowl win :cray:

Yeah. Glad I was there!

 

[VolStrom]

And this one time at band camp....

 

[vosams]

Can you go back and run this same analysis on the Wyoming football team from a few years ago as well as ky during brays tenure and candy over the past two years to test this hypothesis and then repost your results? None of those teams had an on the fringe heisman candidate either...

.

 

[TheGoodStuff]

Nice work OP.

I did that same mental exercise with the Oregon game last year and on paper we were supposed to compete.

recruiting is a good indicator of the "favorite" but that's about it