Talent: Why we win on Sunday, and why we win BIG

#51
#51
One Question....

Who did USU beat last year of any significance....Really Who. All there wins were over lower tiered teams...

They return 5 offense players and 3 on defense.

Our DL should have an edge over their new OL we outweigh them and out talent them.

This game should be a win at least 14+ points.....
 
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#52
#52
thomaseusin said:
We will crush the mo-mo's because we are bigger, stronger, faster, we have nicer women, we are monogamous, our dog hunts, people sing about our mountains, we seat more people at practice than their stadium capacity, we have nicer women, we have unique school colors, we have Dollywood, our rivers don't freeze, we have nicer women and we have nicer women
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mormon1.jpg


I don't know....that is a pretty hot hair....do.
 
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#53
#53
daj2576 said:
I would go a bit farther and say that talent is the most important factor in football.
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Daj, I've followed your talent analysis over the past year or more and appreciate what you provide. Do you think that by breaking down the talent advantage further, let's say disparate rankings by greater than 10, 20, or 50, the 70% would change significantly? Seems like it would..

Let's say team A's 4 year look back rivals recruiting ranking was 9 and team B's was 10. I bet the win loss percentage would be pretty close to 50/50.

Now let's say team A's ranking was 9 and team B's was 39. I bet the win loss percentage for team A would be much higher than 70%.

That type of concept would surely suggest that we have an even better than 70% chance of wining the USU game.

What are your thoughts on that theory?
 
#54
#54
daj2576 said:
Last year, UT went 5-7 but 10 of 12 games were won by the more talented team. That is about 83% of the games.

The previous year, if memory serves, UT went 5-7 but 8 of 12 games were won by the more talented team. That is about 67% of the games.

Talent is a pretty solid indicator of who wins football games. Bottom line.
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Interesting... according to CFB Matrix 2014 talent rankings, UT is 15th in the nation. Just 4 opponents (bama, georgia, florida, oklahoma) are ranked higher than us.

So if 75% (which is the average of 67% and 83%) of our games are won by the more talented team (we're ranked higher than all but 4 teams, so 8*0.75 = 6 wins) and 25% are won by the less talented team (4*0.25 = 1 win), it would put us at 7-5 on the year, which is actually a reasonable prediction.
 
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#55
#55
thomaseusin said:
We will crush the mo-mo's because we are bigger, stronger, faster, we have nicer women, we are monogamous, our dog hunts, people sing about our mountains, we seat more people at practice than their stadium capacity, we have nicer women, we have unique school colors, we have Dollywood, our rivers don't freeze, we have nicer women and we have nicer women
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This makes more sense than the ESPN predictions! :clapping:
 
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#58
#58
Sudden Impact said:
One Question....

Who did USU beat last year of any significance....Really Who. All there wins were over lower tiered teams...

They return 5 offense players and 3 on defense.

Our DL should have an edge over their new OL we outweigh them and out talent them.

This game should be a win at least 14+ points.....
Click to expand...

Northern Illinois..but I am not sure that counts considering it was in the Idaho Potato Chip bowl.
 
#60
#60
olbemw7 said:
Interesting... according to CFB Matrix 2014 talent rankings, UT is 15th in the nation. Just 4 opponents (bama, georgia, florida, oklahoma) are ranked higher than us.

So if 75% (which is the average of 67% and 83%) of our games are won by the more talented team (we're ranked higher than all but 4 teams, so 8*0.75 = 6 wins) and 25% are won by the less talented team (4*0.25 = 1 win), it would put us at 7-5 on the year, which is actually a reasonable prediction.
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I disagree, respectfully, with some of the ways that Bartoo tweaks his numbers. My numbers say UT is 13.75 and that Oklahoma is also 13.75 (nod to Oklahoma for home field advantage). Other than that, you are spot on. My calculations suggest that there is a 58% chance that UT wins 7, or more, games.
 
#61
#61
General Jack said:
Daj, I've followed your talent analysis over the past year or more and appreciate what you provide. Do you think that by breaking down the talent advantage further, let's say disparate rankings by greater than 10, 20, or 50, the 70% would change significantly? Seems like it would..

Let's say team A's 4 year look back rivals recruiting ranking was 9 and team B's was 10. I bet the win loss percentage would be pretty close to 50/50.

Now let's say team A's ranking was 9 and team B's was 39. I bet the win loss percentage for team A would be much higher than 70%.

That type of concept would surely suggest that we have an even better than 70% chance of wining the USU game.

What are your thoughts on that theory?
Click to expand...

There is a point where I have to stop giving data. I don't want my employer to ever believe that I am confusing my findings for anything that would be considered proprietary information.

What I can tell you is that my findings appear to suggest that there is a sliding scale. Generally the team with the better four year trailing average wins 70% of the time. This correlation is stronger the better the two teams are, and weaker the lower on the scale the two teams are. And yes, like you suggest, if one team is top tier, and another is bottom tier, the correlation goes up even higher which indicates that UT's chances of winning are actually closer to 80%. My own research on this phenomenon is incomplete, but that is what I have found to date.

The tricky part is using only these averages to predict the spread. I wouldn't suggest it. Just enjoy knowing that you can fairly confidently predict a winner or a loser and realize that the spread is immaterial to that knowledge. Again...I would not suggest anyone bets using this simple system, at all, ever. In fact, I once had a person tell me that he had lost money using my predictions and that really upset me. These "predictions" aren't intended for that and I don't want to be responsible for someone gambling with them.
 
#62
#62
Maggit will dominate before he gets hurt again. Hopefully, he makes it through most of the first game to keep Keeton in check.
 
#63
#63
Sudden Impact said:
Our DL should have an edge over their new OL we outweigh them and out talent them.
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I think their OL is made up of guys all over 300 so we don't outweigh them...their DL has a bunch of guys in the 260 to 290 range so they also will be going with speed over size...we'll need to run the ball to open up space for the passing game
 
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