Tennesse’s only path to CFP

#1
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SteensVol

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#1
CFP comittee looks closely at Ala vs UT common opponents. Rewards UT’s better SOS.
East was more dominant than west by far at least the top 3-4 teams this year - disregarding history.
UT won head to head - every recognized tiebreaker in the world looks there first. And ranks UT 6th tuesday night.
1.UGA
2. Mich
3. TCU
4. USC
5. OSU
6. Tenn
7. Ala
if that happens AND USC gets pounded by Utah (possible) and TCU gets walloped by KSU (possible) ….
Then
1. UGA
2. Mich
3. OSU
4. UT
5. Ala
UT is in…its a very longshot but not unbelievable.
 
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#5
#5
SteensVol said:
CFP comittee looks closely at Ala vs UT common opponents. Rewards UT’s better SOS.
East was more dominant than west by far at least the top 3-4 teams this year - disregarding history.
UT won head to head - every recognized tiebreaker in the world looks there first. And ranks UT 6th tuesday night.
1.UGA
2. Mich
3. TCU
4. USC
5. OSU
6. Tenn
7. Ala
if that happens AND USC gets pounded by Utah (possible) and TCU gets walloped by KSU (possible) ….
Then
1. UGA
2. Mich
3. OSU
4. UT
5. Ala
UT is in…its a very longshot but not unbelievable.
Click to expand...


Tennessee's sole shot is them being ranked ahead of Bama tomorrow night. If we come out ranked #7 and Bama is #6, we are done.

If we are #6, we would just need TCU and USC to both lose.

In TCU's case, they would be #3 playing a #9-11 ranked Kansas State. #3 losing to #9 would drop them down the rankings

In USC's case, they would be #4 playing a #10-2 ranked Utah. #4 losing to #10 would drop them down the rankings

From there, the committee would have to choose the 2 best teams of a group of 5 that are not conference champs. Since the criteria for ranking teams consists of Top 25 wins, SOS, Head to Head, Top 25 wins, I would feel good about Tennessee getting 1 of 2 spots if the chaos scenario happened with TCU and USC both losing. The one bail out the committee could use to justify not including us would be Hooker's injury

However, this is all a nothing burger if TCU AND USC don't lose AND Tennessee isn't ranked #6 ahead of Bama
 
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#9
#9
chattaboogie said:
I don’t think this is true. Could easily drop TCU with a Kansas state loss. Committee has disliked them since the first voting.
Click to expand...

their SoS is better than Michigan, Ohio State, and USC though. I'd be shocked if they fall out unless they just want to move Bama in (who will likely be ahead of us since they were ahead of us last week and the win against Auburn and our win against Vandy won't likely move the needle.....plus they'll say we are a different team now without Hooker)

the committee will put whoever they want in the top 4, and then use any stats they want to paint a picture as to why they chose them.
 
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#10
#10
dcibrando said:
wrong... TCU is in regardless now
Click to expand...

Not sure how any can justify the #3 team losing a game and not dropping at all or just dropping 1 spot to stay in the top 4. They aren’t gonna be rewarded a playoff spot if they lose this week just because they have a 13th game and others don’t. They lose, they drop atleast 3-5 spots.
 
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#11
#11
JMSqb11 said:
Not sure how any can justify the #3 team losing a game and not dropping at all or just dropping 1 spot to stay in the top 4. They aren’t gonna be rewarded a playoff spot if they lose this week just because they have a 13th game and others don’t. They lose, they drop atleast 3-5 spots.
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I'd be shocked if they happens though... that would be their only loss. Who would you then put in their spot? Ohio State or Bama?
 
#13
#13
Does anyone really think Tennessee will be the beneficiary of two bonified miracles?

Miracle 1) We somehow end up ranked fourth in the CFP...
Miracle 2) We play UGA, Milton has the game of his life and we win...

Mind you, that's two miracles and it only gets us to the start of the championship game...
 
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#16
#16
dcibrando said:
I'd be shocked if they happens though... that would be their only loss. Who would you then put in their spot? Ohio State or Bama?
Click to expand...
Yeah they would go OSU I assume. And I think it’s fair because at this point if you can’t beat Kansas State with your conference title and a playoff birth on the line then you probably aren’t one of the best four teams in the country. Normally there would be a one loss SEC team to slide in for them but alas
 
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#17
#17
SteensVol said:
CFP comittee looks closely at Ala vs UT common opponents. Rewards UT’s better SOS.
East was more dominant than west by far at least the top 3-4 teams this year - disregarding history.
UT won head to head - every recognized tiebreaker in the world looks there first. And ranks UT 6th tuesday night.
1.UGA
2. Mich
3. TCU
4. USC
5. OSU
6. Tenn
7. Ala
if that happens AND USC gets pounded by Utah (possible) and TCU gets walloped by KSU (possible) ….
Then
1. UGA
2. Mich
3. OSU
4. UT
5. Ala
UT is in…its a very longshot but not unbelievable.
Click to expand...
The only path...
 
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#18
#18
Volsfaninva917 said:
Tennessee has like a .5% chance but I don't see a path forward
Click to expand...
There is no path forward and frankly, this team doesn't deserve a spot after the SCjr game.....especially without Hooker. Regardless, I expect both TCU and USC to win out so we were likely going to get left out regardless. 12-1 after a bowl win would have been unreal, but I'll take 11-2 assuming we get a favorable matchup and Milton has a game where he's able to hit more deep throws than he overthrows which doesn't seem likely after what I saw vs vandy. Still, 10-3 and making a New Years six bowl with this roster is nothing short of miraculous. Heupel is COY and it's not close IMO.
 
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#19
#19
The only real path is luck and I don't see it happening, but it is college football and the last two seasons have been upset-heavy.

Georgia loses (still in)
Michigan loses (still in)
TCU loses (would be out)
USC loses (would be out)
Ohio State is idle and in with one L (Ohio State gets in with this scenario, no way around it)
Alabama is idle (bubble team)
Tennessee is idle (bubble team)

I would say it would pan out to be (honestly, Georiga and Michigan could go anywhere, but how could you pass up conference powers vs conference powers in the first round?
1 Ohio State
2 Georgia
3 Michigan
4 Tennessee or Alabama (resume for both) I would do Tennessee, but Alabama likely gets in here if I am being real.

A super slim chance is not a friendly enough way of saying it. This would lead to the most chaotic and debatable four teams yet. I would love it even if we didn't get the go-ahead in the end.
 
Last edited:
#20
#20
m1al said:
Does anyone really think Tennessee will be the beneficiary of two bonified miracles?

Miracle 1) We somehow end up ranked fourth in the CFP...
Miracle 2) We play UGA, Milton has the game of his life and we win...

Mind you, that's two miracles and it only gets us to the start of the championship game...
Click to expand...
Just having us make the playoffs at all in year 2 would be extremely beneficial for the perception of the program. Even if, like you said, we have a low chance of actually advancing.
 
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#23
#23
SteensVol said:
CFP comittee looks closely at Ala vs UT common opponents. Rewards UT’s better SOS.
East was more dominant than west by far at least the top 3-4 teams this year - disregarding history.
UT won head to head - every recognized tiebreaker in the world looks there first. And ranks UT 6th tuesday night.
1.UGA
2. Mich
3. TCU
4. USC
5. OSU
6. Tenn
7. Ala
if that happens AND USC gets pounded by Utah (possible) and TCU gets walloped by KSU (possible) ….
Then
1. UGA
2. Mich
3. OSU
4. UT
5. Ala
UT is in…its a very longshot but not unbelievable.
Click to expand...
Extremely hard to see that happening...
 
#24
#24
dcibrando said:
I'd be shocked if they happens though... that would be their only loss. Who would you then put in their spot? Ohio State or Bama?
Click to expand...

If they lose, they are not conference champs so that whole "conference champs matter" schtick is out the window. From there, you have a very weak 12-1 team.....

I just don't see how anyone justifies a team losing in the final game of season and not dropping more than 1 spot.....


In current rankings, TCU has ranked wins over Texas and Kansas State, USC has ranked wins over Oregon State, UCLA, and Notre Dame, Tennessee has ranked wins over Bama and LSU, Ohio State has ranked wins over Penn State and Notre Dame, Bama has ranked wins over Mississippi State and maybe Ole Miss if they stay in the CFP Top 25


Both TCU and USC are playing in rematch games so if they both lose, TCU basically nullifies its ranked win over K State from earlier. USC losing would be a second loss to Utah.....


Once again, this all is irrelevant in Tennessee's case (i'm a selfish Vol fan) if we don't rank above Bama tomorrow
 
#25
#25
BigOrange15 said:
Just having us make the playoffs at all in year 2 would be extremely beneficial for the perception of the program. Even if, like you said, we have a low chance of actually advancing.
Click to expand...
I get what you're saying and agree, but let's not overlook what CJH has done in year two is also "extremely beneficial for the perception of the program".

What he's done for this program in year two is the miracle....
 
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