Tennessee 2013 Pomeroy Projection

#1
golfballs

golfballs

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#1
kenpom.com subscription

Ranks us 34th overall and 4th in the SEC behind Florida (3rd), Kentucky (5th), and Alabama (33rd - which is essentially a tie). We are rated as a relatively well-balanced team, ranking 45th in offensive efficiency, and 32nd in defensive efficiency.

Of the games currently scheduled (obviously doesn't include potential match-ups in any early season tournaments) he predicts our record to be 19-10 and 11-7 in the SEC (tie for 4th with Bama, however has us losing on the road to them).

Last year he predicted us to finish 5th in the SEC with a record of 11-7. Which is exactly what happened
http://www.volnation.com/forum/tenn...176555-tennessee-2013-pomeroy-projection.html

Game by game predictions aren't as accurate, and they don't sum to the total due to cumulative odd differences, so take them with a grain of salt. With that said he projects these match-ups as losses:

@Xavier (44% chance of winning)
@ Witchita State (37%)
@ LSU (45%)
@ Kentucky (16%)
@ Florida (14%)
@ Alabama (33%)
@ Vandy (48%)
vs. Florida (38%)
@ Mizzou (40%)

Close wins include:
VS. Virginia (56%)
@Texas A&M (54%)

Projected final SEC standings:
T1. Florida 14 -4
T1. Kentucky 14-4
T3. Alabama 11-7
T3. Tennessee 11-7
5. Missouri 10-8
T6. LSU 9-9
T6. Ole Miss 9-9
T6. Vanderbilt 9-9
9. Texas A&M 9-9
T10. Mississippi St 8-10
T10. Georgia 8-10
12. Arkansas 7-11
13. South Carolina 6-12
14. Auburn 5-13
 
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#2
#2
Imo that will not keep his job. I like what CCM has done thus far he just has not taken us to the dance and at that record it would be another NIT bid unfortunely
 
#5
#5
Even with my orange sunglasses off, I like to think we'll do better than that in the SEC. I'm certainly not predicting 2 UF losses lol.
 
#6
#6
I dont see how we cant be better than last year. We bring every player back from last year, and we get maymon back who we didnt have. This team will surprise people.
 
#7
#7
Kind of goes with what I've said about the Xavier game, it's a huge game. Win that game and the season is off to a great start and that's a very solid resume win. Lose that and I worry about players sling some confidence and negativity surrounding the program.

Obviously the first game of the year is never a must win, but this one is as close to a must win IMO as there possibly could be.
 
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#8
#8
vol_in_ga said:
I dont see how we cant be better than last year. We bring every player back from last year, and we get maymon back who we didnt have. This team will surprise people.
Click to expand...

Trae Golden
Yemi Makanjula
Skylar McBee

All three will not be back. Obviously the biggest hit will be losing Trae, but we might be better off with Barton.
 
#11
#11
bleedingTNorange said:
Kind of goes with what I've said about the Xavier game, it's a huge game. Win that game and the season is off to a great start and that's a very solid resume win. Lose that and I worry about players sling some confidence and negativity surrounding the program.

Obviously the first game of the year is never a must win, but this one is as close to a must win IMO as there possibly could be.
Click to expand...

It's not make or break, but I agree about it being a great chance to get the season started off right.
 
#12
#12
vol_in_ga said:
I dont see how we cant be better than last year. We bring every player back from last year, and we get maymon back who we didnt have. This team will surprise people.
Click to expand...

Overall, he does rate us significantly better. Last year we finished ranked 75th (pythagorean winning % of 0.7124. That is a composite derived from offensive and defensive efficiencies - essentially points per possession). He has us this year at 34th (pythag of 0.8263). So it must be a function of schedule, which he has the SEC as being better than last year. Also, tied for 3rd is better than tied for 5th.

We expounded on these numbers last year. Obviously pre-season projections are subject to serious variability, so take all of this with a grain of salt. However, I like to look at statistical forecasts in addition to "experts" because I think it helps cut out a lot of human bias when making pre-season prognostications.
 
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#14
#14
Pre-Season predictions are stupid. Assuming that a team that's never been together before will play a certain way doesnt make any sense. You can replace one guy on a starting lineup and it changes everything from how they play both sides of the ball to who scores the most.

Having Maymon and stokes in the paint and a more traditional PG could change everything for this team.

After we play a few games, I'll start predicting what this team can do. As of right now, they are undefeated and leading the SEC!
 
#15
#15
Jake Tate said:
Pre-Season predictions are stupid. Assuming that a team that's never been together before will play a certain way doesnt make any sense. You can replace one guy on a starting lineup and it changes everything from how they play both sides of the ball to who scores the most.

Having Maymon and stokes in the paint and a more traditional PG could change everything for this team.

After we play a few games, I'll start predicting what this team can do. As of right now, they are undefeated and leading the SEC!
Click to expand...

Barton isn't really a more traditional PG than Golden, but I do think he'll do a better job of pretending to be one. He's certainly quicker and more athletic, and a slightly better shooter. We will miss Trae's strength and FT shooting. That's about all Barton lacks.
 
#16
#16
bleedingTNorange said:
It's is interesting how similar our rank is with ESPN statistical ranking and KenPom's
Click to expand...

It's the same premise, so I'm not too surprised. ESPN's is more in-depth (by including ratings for all cbb players), but overall I don't think it should vary much.
 
#17
#17
cncchris33 said:
Barton isn't really a more traditional PG than Golden, but I do think he'll do a better job of pretending to be one. He's certainly quicker and more athletic, and a slightly better shooter. We will miss Trae's strength and FT shooting. That's about all Barton lacks.
Click to expand...

To add Barton will bring alot more energy.
 
#18
#18
That's one thing about Pomeroy's projections is it favors returning starters. Not sure how much weight it gives to Maymon's return, but that is obviously a big factor. Also, Barton's presence. Hubbs could also be undervalued. So it's important to keep that in mind. There is always data that no computer can be expected to understand. Just like it's impossible to get human opinion without some sort of bias (AP voters overvaluing freshmen at UK). That's why I like to look at both and help come up with a general consensus.
 
#20
#20
cncchris33 said:
Barton isn't really a more traditional PG than Golden, but I do think he'll do a better job of pretending to be one. He's certainly quicker and more athletic, and a slightly better shooter. We will miss Trae's strength and FT shooting. That's about all Barton lacks.
Click to expand...

we're still going to be lacking in ballhandling and passiing, unless the frosh make up some serious ground.

We were turnover machines without Golden on the floor last year.
 
#21
#21
BigPapaVol said:
we're still going to be lacking in ballhandling and passiing, unless the frosh make up some serious ground.

We were turnover machines without Golden on the floor last year.
Click to expand...

That was the big issue was there were times we couldn't play golden because he mentally checked himself out of the game, I don't see Barton doing that. Therefore there should be far fewer minutes where we don't have our floor general out there.

We atleast have a scholarship backup PG this year, we won't have to try a walk-on like last year to spell golden.
 
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#22
#22
Kenpom is the best in the business. He's giving UT a lot of credit for the new guys (Maymon included). UT finished 75th last season, and he's bumping you guys all the way up to 33.

He uses stats for returning players, and uses some weird formula for incoming freshman. Pretty slick stuff.
 
#23
#23
BigPapaVol said:
we're still going to be lacking in ballhandling and passiing, unless the frosh make up some serious ground.

We were turnover machines without Golden on the floor last year.
Click to expand...

I agree on ball-handling last year. We were a hot mess if Golden wasn't out there. Barton is, at worst, an equal ball-handler. Maymon is a good ball-handler too, so getting him back is a plus in that category. Thompson is a good ball-handler, but could struggle against smaller, quicker guards because he is so tall for a PG. He'll have an adjustment period learning to stay low with the ball IMO.
 
#24
#24
MemphisCanes said:
Kenpom is the best in the business. He's giving UT a lot of credit for the new guys (Maymon included). UT finished 75th last season, and he's bumping you guys all the way up to 33.

He uses stats for returning players, and uses some weird formula for incoming freshman. Pretty slick stuff.
Click to expand...

He does, but he's also the first to admit that his system typically undervalues the impact of highly touted new additions (non-starters from LY). Not sure how Maymon is factored in. But given that Tennessee is ranked largely the same preseason last year I don't think it's adequately valuing all of our new additions this year or the improvement of returning players.
 
#25
#25
I actually prefer the write ups by Basketball Prospectus but I believe all their writers got poached by ESPN. One of the writers I follow on twitter said their content has been reduced by ESPN. More tailored for mass market consumption (aka dumbed-down)
 
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