Tennessee 2013 Pomeroy Projection

#26
#26
Well our Vols are about to shock a lot of people...I'm kinda glad to see them not get any love, that way they have to prove it!
 
#27
#27
Someone mentioned it and I've mentioned it all year long.. We don't have Kenny or Skylar.. No computer can compute that. Skylar and Kenny were too much of liabilities. Kenny was a turnover machine and Skylar was missing a lot of shots and couldn't do more than stand around the 3 point line..

We replace them with Robert Hubbs, Armani Moore and Aj Davis... Plus all of our players have worked their butts off during the summer, you can't compute for that either.

Just saying. Tennessee is hype-free at the moment, no top 25 ranking and people seem to be underestimating Tennessee. Which makes it all more enjoyable when we make a big splash. There's always that one team that surprises everyone.
 
#29
#29
In the blog post linked below, he explains how this list is compiled. Most importantly, if you look at the personnel section, you'll note that he doesn't take into account transfers or recruits outside the top 100. So, Pomeroy's predictor thinks Brandon Lopez is Tennessee's only point guard. In other words, the predictor is probably wrong about UT, and is probably rather bearish about their prospects. Now, this isn't to say that Pomeroy's predictor sucks. What I'm saying is that statistically backed preseason predictions are notoriously hard to put together, and often are hamstringed by a lack of easily accessible data on incoming players. The more incoming players impact a team, the harder those teams are to predict. Take, for instance, how Pomeroy whiffed on Kentucky last year with everyone else.
Link:
the kenpom.com blog
 
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#30
#30
Well yea I can definitely see that hurting our rank if in fact he isn't counting Barton or Thompson as part of this team.
 
#33
#33
golfballs said:
kenpom.com subscription

Ranks us 34th overall and 4th in the SEC behind Florida (3rd), Kentucky (5th), and Alabama (33rd - which is essentially a tie). We are rated as a relatively well-balanced team, ranking 45th in offensive efficiency, and 32nd in defensive efficiency.

Of the games currently scheduled (obviously doesn't include potential match-ups in any early season tournaments) he predicts our record to be 19-10 and 11-7 in the SEC (tie for 4th with Bama, however has us losing on the road to them).

Last year he predicted us to finish 5th in the SEC with a record of 11-7. Which is exactly what happened
http://www.volnation.com/forum/tenn...176555-tennessee-2013-pomeroy-projection.html

Game by game predictions aren't as accurate, and they don't sum to the total due to cumulative odd differences, so take them with a grain of salt. With that said he projects these match-ups as losses:

@Xavier (44% chance of winning)
@ Witchita State (37%)
@ LSU (45%)
@ Kentucky (16%)
@ Florida (14%)
@ Alabama (33%)
@ Vandy (48%)
vs. Florida (38%)
@ Mizzou (40%)

Close wins include:
VS. Virginia (56%)
@Texas A&M (54%)

Projected final SEC standings:
T1. Florida 14 -4
T1. Kentucky 14-4
T3. Alabama 11-7
T3. Tennessee 11-7
5. Missouri 10-8
T6. LSU 9-9
T6. Ole Miss 9-9
T6. Vanderbilt 9-9
9. Texas A&M 9-9
T10. Mississippi St 8-10
T10. Georgia 8-10
12. Arkansas 7-11
13. South Carolina 6-12
14. Auburn 5-13
Click to expand...

Pretty much spot on for us
 
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