Tennessee opens as 5.5 point favorite over Florida Atlantic

#76
#76
TheMookieMonster said:
Yep. Like I said, they’re going to fire up 30 3-point shots if we let them. They’ve done it in quite a few games this year. Even if they hit just 10 of those we’ll have a tough time recovering. Gotta get up in their shorts and run them off the line and make sure they don’t get up 30 shots. Force them inside.
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Exactly. We also can’t let them speed us up and commit stupid turnovers against full court pressure.

The matchups/numbers of this matchup honestly make me extremely nervous and I don’t think it’s BVS as much as common sense. My main point of optimism isn’t quantified in any concrete way - it’s mainly just hope that FAU will crumble under the unique atmosphere that is MSG (a spot our guys have been in before). If not, we’re in for a close game against a bunch of shot makers.
 
#77
#77
I'll be curious to see how Phillips and JJJ play, both of them will likely face smaller guards and if they can't keep up then they won't really be able to take advantage of their size/length.

But they could also have an advantage on offense with those smaller guards trying to guard them.

Also something I find interesting FAU hasn't played a top 100 defensive scoring team since Charlotte (18th) on February 4th. Charlotte though is a truly terrible offense (300th).

So on the entire season FAU only played 5 games against top 100 defensive scoring teams. North Texas (1st) x2, Charlotte (18th) x2, and Northern Kentucky (29th) x1. They averaged 64.2 ppg in those 5 games, scoring 70+ just once. But all three of those teams have atrocious offenses (250th or worst ranked in PPG).

We're 188th in PPG and 3rd in PA.

3-10 in games where the opponent scores 60 or more
22-0 in games where the opponent scores less than 60

Defense has to show up in this one.
 
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#78
#78
walkenvol said:
So that happened about 10% of our games and we still finished towards the top in 3 point defense correct?
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3pt made doesn’t necessarily equate to 3pt%, however 3pt% does and 11 of our last 12 games our opponents has shot over our season averages allowed 3pt%, regression to mean? We are 6-6 over that 12 game span btw.
 
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#80
#80
I think our defense will slow them down the real question for me is will our offense show up.

We didn't score a ton of points in the first two rounds, but we didn't need to.

Shot 45.7% FG against Louisiana, 25% from 3 and 57.1% from FT with 16 turnovers (honestly I hope that's the worst we see the offense play, cause against any other team we likely lose with those numbers)

Against Duke we shot 40.4% FG%, 42.9% 3pt % and 76.9% from FT with just 8 turnovers if we play this way offensively with the same defense we've seen in both games we could win the whole damn thing.
 
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#81
#81
bleedingTNorange said:
The post of yours I quoted literally said they may make 8-10 three pointers
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Yes and I think their avg is 9.7 3 pts per game @ 36.7%. So what is the big deal? I don't know if they will make their avg or not. Sometimes you can be a little defensive. Passive Aggressive?
 
#82
#82
Sudden Impact said:
Yes and I think their avg is 9.7 3 pts per game @ 36.7%. So what is the big deal? I don't know if they will make their avg or not. Sometimes you can be a little defensive. Passive Aggressive?
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No, just trying to understand your post/point. You first say that we may have to counter them making double digit 3 pointers, I replied with our record when having to do so. You then reply to that that you don’t think they’ll make double digit 3 pointers, so I’m confused and ask because you originally said that might happen. You then reply and tell me that they average double digit 3 pointers so once again I’m confused lol.
 
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#83
#83
bleedingTNorange said:
No, just trying to understand your post/point. You first say that we may have to counter them making double digit 3 pointers, I replied with our record when having to do so. You then reply to that that you don’t think they’ll make double digit 3 pointers, so I’m confused and ask because you originally said that might happen. You then reply and tell me that they average double digit 3 pointers so once again I’m confused lol.
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I am confident we win this game. This board will turn your brain into jello. I laugh. Are they capable of making 10 3 pt shots yes and if they do I still believe we win. Our Talent and Experience should prevail. I think they are in for a rude awakening both on the offensive & defensive side of it.
 
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#85
#85
It all comes down to how well we can limit Davis and Martin. FAU has a very low chance of winning if we can keep these two guys at a minimum. I’m not worried about their big guy, we have plenty to throw at him. Our on-ball perimeter and transition defense is what will win this game. We rarely ever get into a track meet with teams other than a few times when we had to in the regular season. FAU will have to adjust to our pace, they won’t be able to run-n-gun the whole game. As some have mentioned, how will these guys hold up when they’re having to fight for everything they get on both ends of the court? If we take care of the basketball and play solid defense, it’s there for the taking.
 
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#86
#86
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