Tennessee's National Recruiting Outlook (Under Coach Butch Jones)

#26
#26
star belly.jpg

If we don't win every game forever, we should fire Jones and hire Jamie Newburg; now that guy knows talent. Then we could go and pay as much money as it takes to get the best coach ever! It is so easy and obvious! After we finally get rid of Jones, we will never lose another game - ever!
 
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#27
#27
OP did a great researching job, and Butch is doing a fantastic recruiting job. However, if history only goes back to 2002, there is not much competition for best in history: Fulmer after he retired on the job and Dooley. Kiffin did not amass three years. Nevertheless, we would probably have to go all the way back to Neyland to find comparable recruiting, and in those days, classes often had more than 100 players.
 
#28
#28
Coach Jones took a lot of heat for us blowing 2 games but he took the job when nobody else would and said it was his dream job we were 14th in talent level 4 years ago the man has done a heck of a job and this is the year if he can coach as good as he can recruit we go at least 10 and 2 and maybe 11 and 1 in 16, then maybe some will get of his back, you won't win them all in this league, we are TENNESSEE WE ARE BACK 16 WILL BE A VERY SPECIAL YEAR POP A TOP UNCORK A JUG WE ARE ABOUT TO SEE TENNESSEE AT THE TOP OF THE HILL, and look out THE BIG ORANGE FREIGHT TRAIN WILL DESTROY ANYTHING THAT GETS IN OUR WAY. GO VOLS BUCK BAMA AND LITTLE NICK:clapping:
 
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#29
#29
Marlon Walls mentioned the culture change in his interview with Chris Vernon. He said that under Fulmer (via stories other players told him), Kiffin, and Dooley, a lot of players weren't really onboard with the "team" aspect and were just sort of looking out for themselves and padding their own stats. The team was also really into partying back then.

But he said Jones changed the culture so much, especially after Walls left, and that guys are completely invested in winning and getting the program back to where it's supposed to be, even at the expense of their social lives.

Quite an accomplishment I say! It's been lacking for a long time. One thing I like about Butch from what I see he puts his heart & soul into this program and apparently expects the same from his coaches and sets high standards for them and his players. It also appears that he wants the University & the program to look out for the best interests of each student athlete, beyond football, as he said at some point football will end but life goes on and he wants them to be prepared for life after football. That means much more than just Ws & Ls. Although I want the Ws too. Ha Ha.
 
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#30
#30
A few random football recruiting statistics/facts:

-The last 3 UT recruiting classes (2014-2016, Butch Jones' first 3 full recruiting classes) have signed a combined total of 46 prospects rated as 5* prospects and/or 4* prospects. That total is the highest number UT has signed in a 3-year period in school history (Rivals.com began rating football prospects in 2002). The breakdown is: 11 total (1-5* & 10-4*) signed in 2016 class, 17 total (4-5* & 13-4*) signed in 2015 class, & 18 total (2-5* & 16-4*) signed in 2014 class.

-Using those same statistics comparatively, Tennessee has signed the 4th most combined 4* prospects & 5* prospects in the nation during the last 3 signing classes (2014-2016). A more detailed breakdown looks like:

Total 5* & 4* prospects signed from 2014-2016 (by school):
1) Alabama: 53
2) Florida State: 50
3) Ohio State: 47
4) Tennessee: 46
T5) Southern California: 45
T5) Auburn: 45
7) Louisiana State: 43
8) Georgia: 39
9) Notre Dame: 37
10) Texas A&M: 35
11) California Los Angeles: 34
12) Clemson: 33
T13) Texas: 32
T13) Oklahoma: 32
15) Florida: 30

-Interesting note: The only 3 college football programs ahead of Tennessee on that list (Bama, FSU, OSU), have all won a National Championship during that time-period (2014-2016).

-During the previously mentioned time-frame (2014-2016), UT has signed the #5 class in 2014, the #5 class in 2015, & the #15 class in 2016 according to Rivals.com rankings. That averages out to UT signing a class ranked 8.3 during that 3 year period. That 3-year average would rank Tennessee tied for 8th in the nation in that category. The full list is:

Average Class Rank From 2014-2016 Recruiting Classes:
1) Alabama: 1.3
2) Florida State: 3.0
3) Ohio State: 5.0
4) Louisiana State: 5.3
5) Southern California: 6.3
6) Clemson: 7.3
7) Georgia: 7.7
T8) Tennessee: 8.3
T8) Auburn: 8.3
10) Texas A&M: 10.7
11) Notre Dame: 11.3
12) California Los Angeles: 14.0
T13) Texas: 15.0
T13) Florida: 15.0
15) Ole Miss: 15.7
16) Oklahoma: 16.0
17) Stanford: 16.7
18) Miami: 20.0
19) South Carolina: 20.3
20) Penn State: 20.7
21) Michigan State: 21.3
22) Oregon: 23.7
T23) North Carolina: 25.0
T23) Arizona State: 25.0
25) Kentucky: 27.3
26) Michigan: 28.3
27) Arkansas: 28.7
28) Nebraska: 29.3
29) Mississippi State: 29.7
30) Baylor: 31.7

Butch has been amazing to Tennessee's football program in terms of program image, brand promotion & recognition, social media use, recruiting, etc. He has been a total revitalization to the football program & has helped the team in showing slight improvement on the field.

BUT, Tennessee has to/needs to (yes, I said it) win NOW. Butch certainly isn't considered to be on the "hot seat", but anything short of not solely winning the SEC East & making the SEC Championship game appearance is a complete disappointment. IMO.

Elite coaches win. It is time for Tennessee to win. No more excuses. No more room for that. Butch Jones is entering Year-4 at Tennessee. Excuses are in the past. If a HC is still making/using excuses in Year-4, then it is 100% the coaches' fault & responsibility. I'm not necessarily saying Jones does this or will do it, but Butch cannot blame Fulmer, Kiffin, Dooley, injuries, roster depletion, assistant coaches, YOUNGEST ROSTER IN NATION, or anything else anymore. It is Year-4 & he has had ample time to mold the roster & coaching staff into what he wants/ thinks he needs to be successful.

I'm glad Butch Jones is Tennessee's HC & will always be appreciative of the job he has done in 3 years no matter what the outcome is, but if Jones can't lead Tennessee to start winning big immediately then I don't know if I'm completely confident he is the HC to lead Tennessee back to championship level football. JMO. The statistics don't lie. The talent is there. In fact, Tennessee has assembled a roster that is easily one of the Top-5 most talented teams in the nation. Well, arguably anyway. 4th-most total 5* & 4* players signed in the last 3 years are on UT's roster. The only 3 teams that have signed more have won a National Championship the last 3 seasons. The coaching staff has improved (Shoop, Scott). I'm not saying that Butch Jones isn't a good coach or that he needs to win a NC next year or he will be fired. Nothing like that. But I don't think replicating last season's win total or even finishing 9-3 can be viewed as a success at all. I think Tennessee has to AT LEAST earn it's way to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game. With the talent UT has collected, anything else would be a disappointment, IMO.

Disclaimer: I fully believe Tennessee will improve on last season's win totals, beat Florida, make it to the SEC Championship, & ultimately have a successful season. I hope I am correct.

GBO. Vols, B****.

Later Rednecks!

To your disclaimer i think we are finally learning to win. Which isnt easy ....nice write up
 
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#31
#31
It takes a little luck to win a championship regardless of talent levels, but if you keep trotting out elite talent it usually goes your way. Alabama won the title this year, but could have easily lost 2 or 3 more games in the season. They have had the top signing class for the last five or six years. CBJ is doing a helluva job in bringing in the goods. I suspect that in the next few years we might break thru and win a NC title. Please God make it so.
 
#32
#32
Impressive research by the OP and thanks for the info. It may not appear directly in the W-L record but I think the one area we all still overlook is depth. An earlier poster noted a 6 yr. period for consolidation of a team due to redshirting, and although I think thats a bit drawn out, I do think we are still about a year out from solid depth at every position. No fix for that except time and continued high grade recruiting. I believe CBJ is the coach to do it.
 
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#34
#34
A few random football recruiting statistics/facts:

-The last 3 UT recruiting classes (2014-2016, Butch Jones' first 3 full recruiting classes) have signed a combined total of 46 prospects rated as 5* prospects and/or 4* prospects. That total is the highest number UT has signed in a 3-year period in school history (Rivals.com began rating football prospects in 2002). The breakdown is: 11 total (1-5* & 10-4*) signed in 2016 class, 17 total (4-5* & 13-4*) signed in 2015 class, & 18 total (2-5* & 16-4*) signed in 2014 class.

-Using those same statistics comparatively, Tennessee has signed the 4th most combined 4* prospects & 5* prospects in the nation during the last 3 signing classes (2014-2016). A more detailed breakdown looks like:

Total 5* & 4* prospects signed from 2014-2016 (by school):
1) Alabama: 53
2) Florida State: 50
3) Ohio State: 47
4) Tennessee: 46
T5) Southern California: 45
T5) Auburn: 45
7) Louisiana State: 43
8) Georgia: 39
9) Notre Dame: 37
10) Texas A&M: 35
11) California Los Angeles: 34
12) Clemson: 33
T13) Texas: 32
T13) Oklahoma: 32
15) Florida: 30

-Interesting note: The only 3 college football programs ahead of Tennessee on that list (Bama, FSU, OSU), have all won a National Championship during that time-period (2014-2016).

-During the previously mentioned time-frame (2014-2016), UT has signed the #5 class in 2014, the #5 class in 2015, & the #15 class in 2016 according to Rivals.com rankings. That averages out to UT signing a class ranked 8.3 during that 3 year period. That 3-year average would rank Tennessee tied for 8th in the nation in that category. The full list is:

Average Class Rank From 2014-2016 Recruiting Classes:
1) Alabama: 1.3
2) Florida State: 3.0
3) Ohio State: 5.0
4) Louisiana State: 5.3
5) Southern California: 6.3
6) Clemson: 7.3
7) Georgia: 7.7
T8) Tennessee: 8.3
T8) Auburn: 8.3
10) Texas A&M: 10.7
11) Notre Dame: 11.3
12) California Los Angeles: 14.0
T13) Texas: 15.0
T13) Florida: 15.0
15) Ole Miss: 15.7
16) Oklahoma: 16.0
17) Stanford: 16.7
18) Miami: 20.0
19) South Carolina: 20.3
20) Penn State: 20.7
21) Michigan State: 21.3
22) Oregon: 23.7
T23) North Carolina: 25.0
T23) Arizona State: 25.0
25) Kentucky: 27.3
26) Michigan: 28.3
27) Arkansas: 28.7
28) Nebraska: 29.3
29) Mississippi State: 29.7
30) Baylor: 31.7

Butch has been amazing to Tennessee's football program in terms of program image, brand promotion & recognition, social media use, recruiting, etc. He has been a total revitalization to the football program & has helped the team in showing slight improvement on the field.

BUT, Tennessee has to/needs to (yes, I said it) win NOW. Butch certainly isn't considered to be on the "hot seat", but anything short of not solely winning the SEC East & making the SEC Championship game appearance is a complete disappointment. IMO.

Elite coaches win. It is time for Tennessee to win. No more excuses. No more room for that. Butch Jones is entering Year-4 at Tennessee. Excuses are in the past. If a HC is still making/using excuses in Year-4, then it is 100% the coaches' fault & responsibility. I'm not necessarily saying Jones does this or will do it, but Butch cannot blame Fulmer, Kiffin, Dooley, injuries, roster depletion, assistant coaches, YOUNGEST ROSTER IN NATION, or anything else anymore. It is Year-4 & he has had ample time to mold the roster & coaching staff into what he wants/ thinks he needs to be successful.

I'm glad Butch Jones is Tennessee's HC & will always be appreciative of the job he has done in 3 years no matter what the outcome is, but if Jones can't lead Tennessee to start winning big immediately then I don't know if I'm completely confident he is the HC to lead Tennessee back to championship level football. JMO. The statistics don't lie. The talent is there. In fact, Tennessee has assembled a roster that is easily one of the Top-5 most talented teams in the nation. Well, arguably anyway. 4th-most total 5* & 4* players signed in the last 3 years are on UT's roster. The only 3 teams that have signed more have won a National Championship the last 3 seasons. The coaching staff has improved (Shoop, Scott). I'm not saying that Butch Jones isn't a good coach or that he needs to win a NC next year or he will be fired. Nothing like that. But I don't think replicating last season's win total or even finishing 9-3 can be viewed as a success at all. I think Tennessee has to AT LEAST earn it's way to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game. With the talent UT has collected, anything else would be a disappointment, IMO.

Disclaimer: I fully believe Tennessee will improve on last season's win totals, beat Florida, make it to the SEC Championship, & ultimately have a successful season. I hope I am correct.

GBO. Vols, B****.

Later Rednecks!

My favorite part of this is "later rednecks"! It's ok for us TN folk to say that to ourselves, but watch out for anyone "outside" who says it! GBO! See you guys in ATL this December!
 
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#35
#35
How many other schools recruited the sheer number of players that UT has in the past 3/years?
 
#36
#36
IMO, which means nothing, we really couldn't have asked for a better recruiting class given the numbers and needs. 17 looks to be a big year for TN. Running backs and defensive lineman a big need. The only thing that could have made it a bigger class would have been to get Brown. I never truly thought he would sign with us. Kongbo was an elating moment. I think Williams may be the surprise of the class though. Have you seen his film? And further:

I'm truly amazed and disgusted by the lack of professionalism exhibited by the Ohio St. [earlier] and Miami coaching staffs. They took to twitter like broken hearted little teenage b!+(#3s) and basically made complete fools of themselves. I hope I NEVER see a Tenn. coach do that. Also, I read Vol forums daily and it can get ugly from fans but I have never seen the like of what transpired on the Canes board. If I'm a Hurricane player I don't want fans like that. Even threats of taking a knee to Byrd's kneecaps!!!!!!
AFAIC, this was a great class for TN and I betcha they are top 10 if not top 5 in 17 recruiting when all is said and done.
 
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#37
#37
It would be interesting if someone actually factored in attrition to get a better representation of the talent. I know we had a lot of attrition in 2014 class, something like 7 or 8 4 stars were lost due to attrition (excluding graduates like Weatherd).

Underrated post.
 
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#38
#38
Thanks for the research, flowd82. I also tend to focus on the total number of 4 & 5* for a major reason. For the most part guys like that have proven their talent already. When the roster of the school they go to is loaded they have to work hard to play. When the culture is right and the HC recruits to the culture, a lot of problem guys are weeded out early in the recruiting process.

Which makes it even more extraordinary what Butch has accomplished in building a roster of this quality from the big mess it had become. Yes, time to win. it will keep the trajectory heading higher.
 
#39
#39
So, if Stars "don't matter" and ratings are subjective then it's hard to understand how this research can be applied....and it only goes back to 2002.
 
#40
#40
A few random football recruiting statistics/facts:

Edited to shorten for my question - sorry OP!

::::::::::Denotes Edit:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

-Using those same statistics comparatively, Tennessee has signed the 4th most combined 4* prospects & 5* prospects in the nation during the last 3 signing classes (2014-2016). A more detailed breakdown looks like:

Total 5* & 4* prospects signed from 2014-2016 (by school):
1) Alabama: 53
2) Florida State: 50
3) Ohio State: 47
4) Tennessee: 46
T5) Southern California: 45
T5) Auburn: 45
7) Louisiana State: 43
8) Georgia: 39
9) Notre Dame: 37
10) Texas A&M: 35
11) California Los Angeles: 34
12) Clemson: 33
T13) Texas: 32
T13) Oklahoma: 32
15) Florida: 30

-Interesting note: The only 3 college football programs ahead of Tennessee on that list (Bama, FSU, OSU), have all won a National Championship during that time-period (2014-2016).

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

Elite coaches win. It is time for Tennessee to win. No more excuses. No more room for that. Butch Jones is entering Year-4 at Tennessee. Excuses are in the past. If a HC is still making/using excuses in Year-4, then it is 100% the coaches' fault & responsibility. I'm not necessarily saying Jones does this or will do it, but Butch cannot blame Fulmer, Kiffin, Dooley, injuries, roster depletion, assistant coaches, YOUNGEST ROSTER IN NATION, or anything else anymore. It is Year-4 & he has had ample time to mold the roster & coaching staff into what he wants/ thinks he needs to be successful.

I'm glad Butch Jones is Tennessee's HC & will always be appreciative of the job he has done in 3 years no matter what the outcome is, but if Jones can't lead Tennessee to start winning big immediately then I don't know if I'm completely confident he is the HC to lead Tennessee back to championship level football. JMO. The statistics don't lie. The talent is there. In fact, Tennessee has assembled a roster that is easily one of the Top-5 most talented teams in the nation. Well, arguably anyway. 4th-most total 5* & 4* players signed in the last 3 years are on UT's roster. The only 3 teams that have signed more have won a National Championship the last 3 seasons.

::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

Disclaimer: I fully believe Tennessee will improve on last season's win totals, beat Florida, make it to the SEC Championship, & ultimately have a successful season. I hope I am correct.

GBO. Vols, B****.

Later Rednecks!

Awesome post! Thanks for taking the time to put it together! I am a fellow numbers nerd and love this kind of analysis.

I agree that Butch has done an amazing job and it is time for us to win the East at least! No more excuses!

But regarding higher expectations than we absolutely ought to win the East, I gotta say...NOT SO FAST, MY FRIEND...

What if you carry your study back to 4 and 5 years ago? I am guessing BAMA, OSU and FSU are still in the top 5 of those years too...and we're probably not in the top 25. Since you have the sources already and your method, would you mind doing that?

Before everyone becomes certain that we should win the Natty next year, remember that 1/3 of your data - the most recent year - isn't even on campus yet (except EE's)...and even then, 2/3 of your data will still be underclassmen. Those other 3 programs with Natty's had red shirt juniors and seniors from those top rated classes. Do we even have a redshirt senior? Would that be the last Dooley hangover?

Again, awesome post. I'd love to see it back two more years.

Not making excuses for Butch or being a wet blanket...just hate what will happen if we go 11-2 and play in a Big 6 bowl game...The Nega's would be all "FIRE BUTCH!" and "BUTCH SUCKS!" and "I told you we didn't need no dang Cincinnati coach!"

We are light years ahead of where we were and we could get a break or two and possibly compete for a Natty. Odds are we won't and it'd be great if this place could avoid a total meltdown!

GBO!
 
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#41
#41
Awesome post! Thanks for taking the time to put it together! I am a fellow numbers nerd and love this kind of analysis.

I agree that Butch has done an amazing job and it is time for us to win the East at least! No more excuses!

But regarding higher expectations than we absolutely ought to win the East, I gotta say...NOT SO FAST, MY FRIEND...

What if you carry your study back to 4 and 5 years ago? I am guessing BAMA, OSU and FSU are still in the top 5 of those years too...and we're probably not in the top 25. Since you have the sources already and your method, would you mind doing that?

Before everyone becomes certain that we should win the Natty next year, remember that 1/3 of your data - the most recent year - isn't even on campus yet (except EE's)...and even then, 2/3 of your data will still be underclassmen. Those other 3 programs with Natty's had red shirt juniors and seniors from those top rated classes. Do we even have a redshirt senior? Would that be the last Dooley hangover?

Again, awesome post. I'd love to see it back two more years.

Not making excuses for Butch or being a wet blanket...just hate what will happen if we go 11-2 and play in a Big 6 bowl game...The Nega's would be all "FIRE BUTCH!" and "BUTCH SUCKS!" and "I told you we didn't need no dang Cincinnati coach!"

We are light years ahead of where we were and we could get a break or two and possibly compete for a Natty. Odds are we won't and it'd be great if this place could avoid a total meltdown!

GBO!

If TN goes 11-2 I don't think ppl will want CBJ fired
 
#42
#42
OP did a great researching job, and Butch is doing a fantastic recruiting job. However, if history only goes back to 2002, there is not much competition for best in history: Fulmer after he retired on the job and Dooley. Kiffin did not amass three years. Nevertheless, we would probably have to go all the way back to Neyland to find comparable recruiting, and in those days, classes often had more than 100 players.

Without being able to compare the Rivals rankings farther back, this is all subjective. I would put this 3 year stretch up close to your pick of the 1994-1997 stretch in the modern era. Those classes include many of the all-time greats ever to play on the Hill. Time will tell.

As for the topic at hand, consistency is key. Average a top 10 class with a decent hit rate and we are sitting pretty for a long time. It's not Atlanta or bust for me, but we need to at least make a fighting chance at it. IMO, Georgia needs to have a down year to solidly punch our ticket to ATL.
 
#43
#43
It would be interesting if someone actually factored in attrition to get a better representation of the talent. I know we had a lot of attrition in 2014 class, something like 7 or 8 4 stars were lost due to attrition (excluding graduates like Weatherd).

Add Bates, Bryant, Blair, Charles Mosley(4 stars) who are not on the field, Pearson, O Williams, Weatherd gone, Payne, Helm, Hendrix, Wharton, Sawyers, Scott (all 4 stars) gone. One more year of Hurd and Barnett for sure. From 14 who sees the field in 17? Malone, Wolf, Robertson may or may not be here, C Thomas, TK, Gaulden, McDowell, Berry (KR), Medley. Id say the rest are recruited over by now. It was a good class. In the end this years is probably just as good and 15 was by far the best.
 
#44
#44
Very good information. I only disagree on these two fronts:

1) Injuries can always decimate a team, no matter how much talent they have. Sometimes a run of bad luck does have an impact.

2) There are four years worth of recruits on every team. Alabama, Florida State, and Ohio State have one more year to factor recruiting into the equation of number of 4 & 5 *s. None of those schools had head coaching changes during that period. In theory they are much stronger than Tennessee at this point. If we get a good recruiting class in 2017 then we should have National Championship aspirations.

If we don't make it to Atlanta in 2016, and keep the 2016 SEC Championship Game interesting at a minimum, then it will be a huge disappointment.

Awesome information. We have a major reason to be excited about the future. GBO!
Reword and clarify.
 
#45
#45
So, if Stars "don't matter" and ratings are subjective then it's hard to understand how this research can be applied....and it only goes back to 2002.

Stars do matter in many ways. Individual cases vary. If you're amassing lots of 4 and 5 stars your team will be talented.
 
#46
#46
It takes a little luck to win a championship regardless of talent levels, but if you keep trotting out elite talent it usually goes your way. Alabama won the title this year, but could have easily lost 2 or 3 more games in the season. They have had the top signing class for the last five or six years. CBJ is doing a helluva job in bringing in the goods. I suspect that in the next few years we might break thru and win a NC title. Please God make it so.

So in actuality, Saban is not worth a crap as a coach. Any coach could win a title with the recruits that he has gotten.:)
 
#47
#47
Very good information. I only disagree on these two fronts:

1) Injuries can always decimate a team, no matter how much talent they have. Sometimes a run of bad luck does have an impact.

2) There are four years worth of recruits on every team. Alabama, Florida State, and Ohio State have one more year to factor recruiting into the equation of number of 4 & 5 *s. None of those schools had head coaching changes during that period. In theory they are much stronger than Tennessee at this point. If we get a good recruiting class in 2017 then we should have National Championship aspirations.

If we don't make it to Atlanta in 2016, and keep the 2016 SEC Championship Game interesting at a minimum, then it will be a huge disappointment.

Awesome information. We have a major reason to be excited about the future. GBO!

Damnit, you pragmatic thinker. You're gonna derail so many NC aspirations up in here.

Gave you a like - keep up the good work!!
 
#48
#48
It takes a little luck to win a championship regardless of talent levels, but if you keep trotting out elite talent it usually goes your way. Alabama won the title this year, but could have easily lost 2 or 3 more games in the season. They have had the top signing class for the last five or six years. CBJ is doing a helluva job in bringing in the goods. I suspect that in the next few years we might break thru and win a NC title. Please God make it so.

Welcome back.

I've been missing your avi.
 
#50
#50
It would be interesting if someone actually factored in attrition to get a better representation of the talent. I know we had a lot of attrition in 2014 class, something like 7 or 8 4 stars were lost due to attrition (excluding graduates like Weatherd).

That's actually irrelevant. Its not like we're losing impact players to attrition. In 2014 we lost guys who were not as good as their star rating and were beat out by lesser regarded players. See 3* Moseley beating out 4* Payne and 3* Wolf beating out 4* Helm.

In the end this evens out. For every 4* we lose to attrition, we have a 3* who exceeds his ranking.

The 2014 is still amazing even with all that attrition thanks to all the 3* prospects that have become starters/big time contributors (Wolf, Robertson, Thomas, and Moseley).
 

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