The Atlanta Braves Thread

#217,311
#217,311
mr.checkerboards said:
I'm playing it, but the line getting steamed like it is has me a bit nervous. Nico will be great but there will be some learning curve at some point. Will it be tomorrow?
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Yep- I posted this in the other thread, but people who have been around pointspreads a few decades will know what I’m saying - when a line moves this much - this is exceedingly rare mind you - six full points in five days- it’s uncanny how often the heavy underdog gets a BS last minute back door cover- a meaningless garbage time TD against the third string.
To avoid this, UT bettors hope the Vols are up by at least 18 with the ball- in the last two minutes.

This is also the “unicorn” situation for a lot of players too- they get a shot at an exceedingly rare -more than four point -middle.
This means they have a chunk of money on the Vols - 4.5 or 5.5, and now they can put that same amount on NCSU +10.5 or 11, and they’ve got free no risk shot - and a real good shot with this big of a spread - of hitting the coveted middle - that is the Vols win by say 6. They win both bets and get a double payday without risking anything.
So with that in mind, the money will pour in very late on NCSU from those holding the original Vols -5 or 6 or whatever, and the line will stabilize and stop soaring. Hasn’t happened yet, and folks holding those early Vols tickets are drooling.
Now, will it actually middle ? Doubtful- statistically, these hitting are rare- but this spread is so big there’s about as good of a chance of it happening as possible. All that typed…. UT will probably crush them, or win by a FG.
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Taken from the FF. No idea if this is an actual thing but sounds legit.
 
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#217,312
#217,312
Wickman said:
Taken from the FF. No idea if this is an actual thing but sounds legit.
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An intelligent post from the FF...... That's the unicorn of the thing.

But yes a lot of pro bettors will tell you that stuff, and middles are commonly taught in those circles as well.

When the line opened at 6.5 I took that on one book, but on Fanduel I took Vols by 14+. That's the one I'm nervous about.
 
#217,314
#217,314
Wickman said:
I do think NC St. will look a lot better than they did last week.
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This game is way more anticipated by them and their fanbase than it is by ours. I think we'll get their best effort or something close.

I'd love to see D-Samp and the running game generally go wild. That could also help take some pressure off Nico, although Nico needs to still be able to connect downfield to keep them honest.

One of the things I love about this offense is that we get pigeon-holed as being pass heavy, with a lot of emphasis on how the opposing team's secondary can match up with our QB and WRs. It flies under the radar that over the last 2 seasons, we've been the best rushing team in the SEC. Watching that 2022 tape with all the long passes freaks a lot of DCs out, but we run too.
 
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