The coaching shakeup after the 2025 season could be historic

[NighthawkVol]

There is a large number of coaches at big-time programs who are on the hot seat in 2024 who look like they'll survive until 2025. That could lead to an unprecedented number of firings by big-time programs following (or during) the 2025 season. And that could lead to some chaos, due to the facts that A) these programs will see that other big-time programs will be in hiring mode and many will pull the trigger early to try to get a jump start on the others; and B) the domino effect may cause other big-ish programs to lose coaches. Consider:

1) Florida is keeping Napier. He'll be on his last leg in 2025.
2) Oklahoma is likely keeping Venables. Another season like this one in 2025 means he's gone.
3) USC is likely keeping Riley. Another season like this one and he's either canned or off to the NFL.
4) FSU is likely keeping Norvell. Another season like this one and he's likely gone. Especially with favorite son Deion Sanders out there succeeding.
5) Auburn is likely keeping Freeze. Another season like this one, and he's gone.

Some other possibilities:

1) Brian Kelly at LSU could be on the hot seat in 2025. The natives are getting restless down there.
2) Ryan Day is in an interesting spot at Ohio State. He's been under pressure because he couldn't beat Michigan. This year, he will likely beat Michigan, but still lose 2-3 games. Are Ohio State fans okay with 3 losses if they beat Michigan? Some are. But 2 years in a row of that and the seat will be hot.
3) Speaking of Michigan, Moore looks like he'll go 6-6 in his 1st season at Michigan, a year after they won the NC. Do that again next year, and he could be gone.

So we could be looking at an offseason coaching cycle in which Florida, Oklahoma, USC, FSU, Auburn, and maybe 1 or 2 of LSU, Ohio State, and Michigan are all hiring a coach. Many would be fighting over the same candidates. Guys like Kalani Sitaki (BYU), Rhett Lashlee (SMU), Spencer Danielson (Boise), and Jamie Chadwell (Liberty) will have a great shot to move up in the ranks to a big-time Power 4 program. Many others (Josh Heupel? Curt Cignetti?) could get hefty raises as a result of being linked to one or more of these jobs.

It could be insanity.

 

[gohogs14]

Fully expect Arkansas to hold on to Pittman for another year and then decide to move on next offseason when there are all of those other openings to compete with. Sounds about right

 

[ptcarter]

We've spent our time in the coaching barrel. All I can say, is "I'm glad it ain't us". Can you imagine what FSU fans are going through now? (Answer: You can because of Dooley, Butch and Pruitt).

 

[NighthawkVol]

Fully expect Arkansas to hold on to Pittman for another year and then decide to move on next offseason when there are all of those other openings to compete with. Sounds about right

Arkansas should go ahead and grab Rhett Lashlee now before they’re competing with Auburn for him next year.

 

[adam.vol]

Arkansas should go ahead and grab Rhett Lashlee now before they’re competing with Auburn for him next year.

I’d be careful about hiring anyone after one good season these days. Norvell should be a strong enough cautionary tale.

I wish I had paid more attention to SMU, but I can’t act like I wanted to see any of their games against weak opponents.

 

[volfanbill]

I’d be careful about hiring anyone after one good season these days. Norvell should be a strong enough cautionary tale.

4 double digit win seasons.

 

[adam.vol]

4 double digit win seasons.

True. That’s what Norvell has.

 

[CAVPUT]

Crazy to consider that a lot of those names were on our board once upon a time. Hope Heupel makes it. Got no taste for any more coaching searches.

 

[NighthawkVol]

Crazy to consider that a lot of those names were on our board once upon a time. Hope Heupel makes it. Got no taste for any more coaching searches.

Yeah. I hope he “makes it.”

 

[GVF]

I’d be careful about hiring anyone after one good season these days. Norvell should be a strong enough cautionary tale.

I wish I had paid more attention to SMU, but I can’t act like I wanted to see any of their games against weak opponents.

Norvell did do 4 years as HC at Memphis with a .720 win ratio as his 1st HC gig. I get it was Memphis, but on the flip side he did that at Memphis.

Fuente had 4 seasons at Memphis and barely cleared .500 and waltzed right in to VT as a "good hire." He was however, a better HC than he was a QB at Okie.

I think they're all crap shoots. Just like the 5* recruits. A new, even used, HC can crap the sheets at one school, and look like the golden goose at another.

 

[adam.vol]

Norvell did do 4 years as HC at Memphis with a .720 win ratio as his 1st HC gig. I get it was Memphis, but on the flip side he did that at Memphis.

Fuente had 4 seasons at Memphis and barely cleared .500 and waltzed right in to VT as a "good hire." He was however, a better HC than he was a QB at Okie.

I think they're all crap shoots. Just like the 5* recruits. A new, even used, HC can crap the sheets at one school, and look like the golden goose at another.

Bret Bilema comes to mind. Great at Wisconsin. Terrible at Arkansas. Seems to be on an upward trajectory at Illinois.

I wonder how Mark Stoops would be able to do at a premier ACC program like FSU.

 

[GVF]

Bret Bilema comes to mind. Great at Wisconsin. Terrible at Arkansas. Seems to be on an upward trajectory at Illinois.

I wonder how Mark Stoops would be able to do at a premier ACC program like FSU.

I've always held that coaches are more successfull regionally based on where they've recruited more, coached more, and known more. Saban being one of the exceptions. And maybe more exceptions than I can count. But given the number of FBS coaches...

I liked Bilema. But, he was a fish out of water down here. Even in Northern Arkansas. And what was so attractive at Arkansas to leave his success at Wisconsin except the conference. The right coach could build a power at Wisconsin, and I think he was it for them at the time. Unless Alvarez still had too much control over hte program and he was bailing on that. ???

Stoops, I think, played the smart card staying at KY. Too many examples of coaches making that move and flopping, when you had a good gig you were happy at and doing well. Brian Kelly is a good current example. His short comings were tolerated at ND, but has him likely on a short rope now at LSU. You don't go to LSU to get curb stomped and live long. And the talent pool is thin there right now under his watch. And that's not acceptable when you have a large swamp of some of the best HS palyers in the country. You can recruit only that state and be a top 10 team every year.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

Fully expect Arkansas to hold on to Pittman for another year and then decide to move on next offseason when there are all of those other openings to compete with. Sounds about right

You’re welcome

 

[gohogs14]

I've always held that coaches are more successfull regionally based on where they've recruited more, coached more, and known more. Saban being one of the exceptions. And maybe more exceptions than I can count. But given the number of FBS coaches...

I liked Bilema. But, he was a fish out of water down here. Even in Northern Arkansas. And what was so attractive at Arkansas to leave his success at Wisconsin except the conference. The right coach could build a power at Wisconsin, and I think he was it for them at the time. Unless Alvarez still had too much control over hte program and he was bailing on that. ???

Stoops, I think, played the smart card staying at KY. Too many examples of coaches making that move and flopping, when you had a good gig you were happy at and doing well. Brian Kelly is a good current example. His short comings were tolerated at ND, but has him likely on a short rope now at LSU. You don't go to LSU to get curb stomped and live long. And the talent pool is thin there right now under his watch. And that's not acceptable when you have a large swamp of some of the best HS palyers in the country. You can recruit only that state and be a top 10 team every year.

On paper, Bielema recruited much better and had better talent on the roster at Arkansas than at Wisconsin. But it doesn’t always work that way. He lost more close games than just about any coach I’ve ever seen (though Pittman has lost a ton of them as well). His 2014-15 teams should have probably gotten close to 10 wins but then it fell apart after that.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Schools are going to be more patient with coaches now.

Normally the money that would be used for buyouts will now be going to paying players/NIL....

Less money on facilities and buyouts and more to the players...

 

[Volfan1000]

There is a large number of coaches at big-time programs who are on the hot seat in 2024 who look like they'll survive until 2025. That could lead to an unprecedented number of firings by big-time programs following (or during) the 2025 season. And that could lead to some chaos, due to the facts that A) these programs will see that other big-time programs will be in hiring mode and many will pull the trigger early to try to get a jump start on the others; and B) the domino effect may cause other big-ish programs to lose coaches. Consider:

1) Florida is keeping Napier. He'll be on his last leg in 2025.
2) Oklahoma is likely keeping Venables. Another season like this one in 2025 means he's gone.
3) USC is likely keeping Riley. Another season like this one and he's either canned or off to the NFL.
4) FSU is likely keeping Norvell. Another season like this one and he's likely gone. Especially with favorite son Deion Sanders out there succeeding.
5) Auburn is likely keeping Freeze. Another season like this one, and he's gone.

Some other possibilities:

1) Brian Kelly at LSU could be on the hot seat in 2025. The natives are getting restless down there.
2) Ryan Day is in an interesting spot at Ohio State. He's been under pressure because he couldn't beat Michigan. This year, he will likely beat Michigan, but still lose 2-3 games. Are Ohio State fans okay with 3 losses if they beat Michigan? Some are. But 2 years in a row of that and the seat will be hot.
3) Speaking of Michigan, Moore looks like he'll go 6-6 in his 1st season at Michigan, a year after they won the NC. Do that again next year, and he could be gone.

So we could be looking at an offseason coaching cycle in which Florida, Oklahoma, USC, FSU, Auburn, and maybe 1 or 2 of LSU, Ohio State, and Michigan are all hiring a coach. Many would be fighting over the same candidates. Guys like Kalani Sitaki (BYU), Rhett Lashlee (SMU), Spencer Danielson (Boise), and Jamie Chadwell (Liberty) will have a great shot to move up in the ranks to a big-time Power 4 program. Many others (Josh Heupel? Curt Cignetti?) could get hefty raises as a result of being linked to one or more of these jobs.

It could be insanity.

There could be some assistant coaches getting a shot at being head coach in 2026.

 

[LouderVol]

On paper, Bielema recruited much better and had better talent on the roster at Arkansas than at Wisconsin. But it doesn’t always work that way. He lost more close games than just about any coach I’ve ever seen (though Pittman has lost a ton of them as well). His 2014-15 teams should have probably gotten close to 10 wins but then it fell apart after that.

but he was also coaching against a lot less talent in the Big 10.

 

[NighthawkVol]

but he was also coaching against a lot less talent in the Big 10.

Exactly.

 

[gohogs14]

but he was also coaching against a lot less talent in the Big 10.

He also lost to Rutgers, Toledo, Texas Tech, etc. at Arkansas despite having quite a few NFL players. It’s just weird how you go to a situation where theoretically all the resources are better for you but no matter the coach some places like Wisconsin just seem to win.

 

[StarRaider]

I cant wait to get @OneManGang 's take on this future historic event i tell ya wut

 

[Hoosier_Vol]

Would not be a bit surprised to see Deion at FSU next season.

 

[stolitonic]

Schools are going to be more patient with coaches now.

Normally the money that would be used for buyouts will now be going to paying players/NIL....

Less money on facilities and buyouts and more to the players...

Disagree on schools being more patient.

If anything, this is going to cause schools to pull the trigger sooner.

For any school that considers itself having a good football team going 2-3 years in a row with no Playoff berths would be unthinkable

With all the money going to the player now, the donors are going to be really angry if the best team their money could buy goes 5-7. Easiest person to blame is the coach.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Disagree on schools being more patient.

If anything, this is going to cause schools to pull the trigger sooner.

For any school that considers itself having a good football team going 2-3 years in a row with no Playoff berths would be unthinkable

With all the money going to the player now, the donors are going to be really angry if the best team their money could buy goes 5-7. Easiest person to blame is the coach.

I think you are seeing more patience now more than in the past 15 years.

Pittman, Napier, Venebles, Freeze, Gundy, and Norvell would have been fired already 5 years ago. 1 or more of these guys will be back next year under the guise of "Let's pay to get better players" than pay a buyout.....