The Match Up...

#1
jakez4ut

jakez4ut

Patience... It's what's for dinner
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#1
i'm no expert, but as i continue to read and look around at what a lot of folks are saying...i see two common things:
1. UF supposedly has "better", not more, talent than TN, Offensive speed will edge out and be more than we can stop and will be a factor in UF winning. TN lost too much in an already thin D line and the woes will continue on from the airforce game defensively.
2. TN has a lot to play for, respect, being 'back', making a statement, taking back homefeild, and feeling disrespected will "will" the Vols to Vicotry.

Now what bugs me about that, and these are generalizations from a bunch of differen aricles and "expert" picks i've seen, is that there isn't much credence given to what TN has accomplished offensively, moreover, that our offensive line has yet to allow a sack. the only real thing you get from a personnel standpoint is a mention about Ainge and his stats...but that is usually followed by a comment about Meacham breaking arm tackles in the Cal game to pad those stats.

i'm not looking for respect or anything like that from these prognosticators, i just think it's kind of weird that all the instrinsic factors are favored to TN, but on paper, most will tell you UF is the best team in the East and should probalby win.

For me, i think this is a toss up game. I don't think we're as bad on Defense as some would like to think, and i don't think UF as as good on offense as most would like to think.

I don't think that either team has anything that should just scare the hell out of you, but rather, are both solid just about everywhere. i would give TN the nod on offense and UF the nod on defense (and that's the real match up here...is our offense good enough to capitalize against what is considered one of the best defenses in the land, and likewise, can UF's D prove it against an offense that so far has yet to be stopped) and maybe a slight edge to UF on Special teams.

As usual, i think this game comes down to who makes the least mistakes. Penalties that kill drives. Turnovers. Special teams etc....

i really want to think that TN will win, they are capable that's for sure.

but i won't be suprised one way or the other. Which is why i'm staying to my prediction...UT 34 UF 27 in overtime, in a game where both teams look great at times, and both leave you wondering at times...
 
#2
#2
I agree with you 100%. This is a toss up game, I think the news that Harrell will play, and the emotion from Inky's injury will also help the Vols to be up for this game.

Go VOLS!!!!
 
#3
#3
yeah, i agree, and early on i think you'll see a lot of energy...but that can't be sustained for 60 minutes...eventually, they'll have to settle down and execute.
 
#4
#4
Depends on what time of day you ask me about this game depends on how I feel about this game. Think overall you are right. Emotion will take first part of game and then settle in and keep going. What I am hoping is the emotion will get us on the board early and often because we'll need it later.
 
#5
#5
hohenfelsvol said:
Depends on what time of day you ask me about this game depends on how I feel about this game. Think overall you are right. Emotion will take first part of game and then settle in and keep going. What I am hoping is the emotion will get us on the board early and often because we'll need it later.
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i would have no problem with that...and i think it would be best served if we were on D first off to take advantage of the crowd and energy...maybe get an early turnover and get an early lead...
 
#6
#6
I've said all along that an objective analysis of this game has it pretty much a toss-up.

At least going into the game. Early breaks (good and bad) could easily turn this game into a lopsided one, in either direction.

FWIW, I pick UT against the spread, and UF straight up, in the two pools that I'm in.

It still could be decisive win for one team or the other, but going into the game, I find it hard to give one team a significant edge over the other when looking at all factors objectively.

I'm not sure how to factor in the "revelation" that UT was reading Cal's signs and thus knew how to defend against Cal. If that was the primary reason that Cal was held down (and subsequently resulted in UT getting a lot more offensive plays than they would have otherwise), and given the auspicious game against AF, it kind of screws up a lot of otherwise objective comparisons.

There's just no way to know how the Cal game would've turned out otherwise, but it may be safe to say that at least a few stops on Cal by the UT defense that UT might not have otherwise gotten. Impact? Who knows?
 
#7
#7
jakez4ut said:
...eventually, they'll have to settle down and execute.
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Executing is exactly what they've been doing, and there is every reason to think they will continue to do so.

You know a lot of people forget that the Vols put together long, sustained drives in each of the past two games. They remember the long passes, but forget that we have already shown that we can execute in a sustained drive.

We're going to win this one.
 
#8
#8
no1g8r said:
I've said all along that an objective analysis of this game has it pretty much a toss-up.

At least going into the game. Early breaks (good and bad) could easily turn this game into a lopsided one, in either direction.

FWIW, I pick UT against the spread, and UF straight up, in the two pools that I'm in.

It still could be decisive win for one team or the other, but going into the game, I find it hard to give one team a significant edge over the other when looking at all factors objectively.

I'm not sure how to factor in the "revelation" that UT was reading Cal's signs and thus knew how to defend against Cal. If that was the primary reason that Cal was held down (and subsequently resulted in UT getting a lot more offensive plays than they would have otherwise), and given the auspicious game against AF, it kind of screws up a lot of otherwise objective comparisons.

There's just no way to know how the Cal game would've turned out otherwise, but it may be safe to say that at least a few stops on Cal by the UT defense that UT might not have otherwise gotten. Impact? Who knows?
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interesting point about the calls from the Cal game....but the one thing i took from that was we were way more physical than they were on both sides of the ball, regardless of what calls we picked up...

i don't know that we will "out physical" Florida, but the match up shouldn't give either team and advantage...

i think most people with out a dog in the fight are looking at TN as "which one is the real mccoy?" the Cal or AF game? I think Offensively, we remained consistent...the defense obviously is where the issue is...which one is for real? the signal deciphering then kind of comes in to question as you stated...

Either way, i still like the match up of our D line against the UF offensive line...UF's WR's will give our DB's fits, and our LB's will need to be active in plugging holes and not allowing UF's running game going at all.

But the match up of the game is our offensive line vs. UF's d line. which one is for real? no sacks allowed by the o line for TN, no sacks applied by UF's d line. i really think who ever wins that battle will likely win the game, and i say that knowing that UF will get to Ainge at some point.
 
#9
#9
I really don't see the result of either of our first two games as a surpise. From what I have been told by two Vol insiders, neither does the team.

The pundits got the analysis of the Air Force game all wrong. First, they never slowed our offense. Keep in mind, we never punted. When was the last time you remember that from a Tennessee team? I think everyone on the team expected them to have big yardage on the ground. I know I did. Perhaps the number of scores was surprising, but the yardage certainly should not have been. They run a strange offense and execute it very well. Finally, had the interception not been thrownlate in the game, the pundits outlook would have been very different. That would have led to a much different outlook for the Florida game.

My friends on the inside say they have never seen the team so loose during a Florida week, and apparently the confidence stems from the offensive gameplan they have in place.

For what it is worth, this one has a very different feel from what I am used to heading into Florida. My prediction...throw conventional wisdom out the door. This one has the makings of a shocker.:whistling:
 
#10
#10
orange+white=heaven said:
Executing is exactly what they've been doing, and there is every reason to think they will continue to do so.

You know a lot of people forget that the Vols put together long, sustained drives in each of the past two games. They remember the long passes, but forget that we have already shown that we can execute in a sustained drive.

We're going to win this one.
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oh, i rememeber in the AF game the long drives...dont' worry...but i also remember the AF defense....

and as for the Cal game, i'll never forget what my buddy told me about 1/2 way thru the 3rd qtr...
"if we keep scoring this fast, we aren't going to be able to set up the run."
 
#11
#11
Some interesting stat comparisons regarding recent UT/UF games:
2005
Ainge: 14-29-147-1-0
Leak: 17-26-179-0-0
Total Yards, UT: 213
Total Yards, UF: 247
Rushing, UT: 66
Rushing, UF: 68
Turnovers, UT: 1
Turnovers, UF: 0

Florida has two scoring drives of less than 20 yards, wins 16-7.

2004
Ainge: 16-24-192-3-1
Leak: 22-31-286-3-1
Total Yards, UT: 403
Total Yards, UF: 421
Rushing, UT: 171
Rushing, UF: 135
Turnovers, UT: 3
Turnovers, UF: 1

UT misses EP to tie, however, marches down field and kicks winning FG.

Ainge has done quite well against Florida. Under Cutcliffe, I see Ainge doing much, much better. However, I feel that Leak will most likely repeat his performance from 2005, instead of his 2004 performance.
 
#12
#12
'Boro-vol said:
I think everyone on the team expected them to have big yardage on the ground. I know I did. Perhaps the number of scores was surprising, but the yardage certainly should not have been. They run a strange offense and execute it very well. Finally, had the interception not been thrownlate in the game, the pundits outlook would have been very different. That would have led to a much different outlook for the Florida game.
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i agree with this....but at the same time, i expected us to make AF punt more than once in the 2nd half....that's what bothered me about that game. i fully expected AF to hang around and give us all kinds of fits..which they did, even before the interception....but make'em punt....twice in the 2nd half and the game is over.

I agree with your view on the perception of TN going in to the UF game based on the results of the AF game.
 
#14
#14
therealUT said:
Ainge has done quite well against Florida. Under Cutcliffe, I see Ainge doing much, much better. However, I feel that Leak will most likely repeat his performance from 2005, instead of his 2004 performance.
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a lot of how Leak did last year was our pass rush....we got to him and got to him often.

if we don't get similar pressure or disrupt that offense, Leak has the ability to put up big time numbers.

and i do like our D line vs. their O line....
 
#15
#15
jakez4ut said:
I agree with your view on the perception of TN going in to the UF game based on the results of the AF game.
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Oh...almost certainly. In fact, call me a kook, but I think much of the national media attention focused on the Vols after the Cal game was intentionally designed to set up a letdown after the AF game. I have never seen us a make 12 spot jump in the polls after one game....ever.

That makes the upside to this one even sweeter.:rock:
 
#16
#16
jakez4ut said:
i agree with this....but at the same time, i expected us to make AF punt more than once in the 2nd half....that's what bothered me about that game. i fully expected AF to hang around and give us all kinds of fits..which they did, even before the interception....but make'em punt....twice in the 2nd half and the game is over.

I agree with your view on the perception of TN going in to the UF game based on the results of the AF game.
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I look at it the AF game this way:
We had the ball, 1st and 10 at the AF 14 yard line, 6:15 left on the clock. If we run the ball 3 straight plays, we either score a TD and go up by 21 or we kick a FG. Either way, we are up by 3 scores with less than 5 minutes to go. If anyone doubts this was Fulmer's mindset at that time, then they have not been paying attention to UT football for the past decade.

This plan was shot though, when we committed two offensive penalties. It was now 1st and 20, from the 24 (a 42 yard FG.) Our running game had not been spectacular, and I believe that the coaching staff wanted to move the ball close enough for a 35 yard or less FG attempt. So, our WRs ran short, underneath routes...unforunately, AFs zone was in the right spot.

Bottom line: we don't get those penalties, Air Force does not come within double digits of UT.
 
#17
#17
jakez4ut said:
a lot of how Leak did last year was our pass rush....we got to him and got to him often.

if we don't get similar pressure or disrupt that offense, Leak has the ability to put up big time numbers.

and i do like our D line vs. their O line....
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I do not see a reason why we would not get consistent pressure on Leak. He is not much of a threat to run (about as fast as Ainge) and I do not believe that any defense has ever worried about an Urban Meyer rushing game.
 
#19
#19
orange+white=heaven said:
Look, AF game as a barometer of our defense just doesn't work for me.
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Not unless Myer has installed the triple option as his running attack this week.

You are absolutely right, though. That game was an anomoly based solely upon the offense of the opposing team. Looking at our offensive production is the real measure of that game.
 
#20
#20
therealUT said:
I look at it the AF game this way:
We had the ball, 1st and 10 at the AF 14 yard line, 6:15 left on the clock. If we run the ball 3 straight plays, we either score a TD and go up by 21 or we kick a FG. Either way, we are up by 3 scores with less than 5 minutes to go. If anyone doubts this was Fulmer's mindset at that time, then they have not been paying attention to UT football for the past decade.

This plan was shot though, when we committed two offensive penalties. It was now 1st and 20, from the 24 (a 42 yard FG.) Our running game had not been spectacular, and I believe that the coaching staff wanted to move the ball close enough for a 35 yard or less FG attempt. So, our WRs ran short, underneath routes...unforunately, AFs zone was in the right spot.

Bottom line: we don't get those penalties, Air Force does not come within double digits of UT.
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i agree...but that didn't happen...when it did, get a stop and the game is still over...neither happened, and the end result is what it is...
orange+white=heaven said:
:eek:k: spot on man...

Look, AF game as a barometer of our defense just doesn't work for me.
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Me neither, but again, the fact we only forced 1 punt in the 2nd half was a little deflating for me. no argument however that AF's offense style and scheme had more to do with it than our overall defensive talent.

but one thing to consider for the UF game that i haven't seen brought up here: Uf's use of the no huddle offense.

seeing as we're fairly thin in some spots, i think we'll see UF come out in the no huddle and try to wear us down some...may not be early, but i think we'll see it at some point...probably would be a good half time adjustment depending on how the game is going at the time....

anyway, something to keep an eye on...
 
#21
#21
jakez4ut said:
but one thing to consider for the UF game that i haven't seen brought up here: Uf's use of the no huddle offense.

seeing as we're fairly thin in some spots, i think we'll see UF come out in the no huddle and try to wear us down some...may not be early, but i think we'll see it at some point...probably would be a good half time adjustment depending on how the game is going at the time....

anyway, something to keep an eye on...
Click to expand...

I somewhat agree on this point. This combined with some things I have heard coming directly from our offense leads me to believe, as I have said, that conventional UT vs UF wisdom goes out the door and we find ourselves in a very different kind of game than we usaully see.

I see a big offensive struggle, and a two touchdown win.
 
#22
#22
jakez4ut said:
i agree...but that didn't happen...when it did, get a stop and the game is still over...neither happened, and the end result is what it is...

Me neither, but again, the fact we only forced 1 punt in the 2nd half was a little deflating for me. no argument however that AF's offense style and scheme had more to do with it than our overall defensive talent.

but one thing to consider for the UF game that i haven't seen brought up here: Uf's use of the no huddle offense.

seeing as we're fairly thin in some spots, i think we'll see UF come out in the no huddle and try to wear us down some...may not be early, but i think we'll see it at some point...probably would be a good half time adjustment depending on how the game is going at the time....

anyway, something to keep an eye on...
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I would love to see Florida try to run the no huddle in Neyland Stadium, in fact, it would make my year. They might have spent the first two games running silent counts, however, running an offense, completely silent, is a completely different scenario.

Also, as it pertains to the AF game, they only had 4 drives in the 4th quarter. Would have only had 3 had they not recovered the onside kick...
 
#23
#23
therealUT said:
I would love to see Florida try to run the no huddle in Neyland Stadium, in fact, it would make my year. They might have spent the first two games running silent counts, however, running an offense, completely silent, is a completely different scenario.

Also, as it pertains to the AF game, they only had 4 drives in the 4th quarter. Would have only had 3 had they not recovered the onside kick...
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they did that in hte UCF game....never spoke a word. granted it was at home, but they have done it for a complete game...and don't underestimate what a no huddle can do to a defense...if you recall, i believe we came out and ran it against UGA in 04 and it worked to a T.

and again, another IF....it is what it is...we didn't do any of those things. We didn't score on that last posession, and we didn't recover the 1st on sides kick.
 
#24
#24
Something to keep an eye on.....

Our nickel and dime backfield packages. This is where the loss of Inky and the hit to our depth will most reveal itself.

The D line is gonna play spirited football. They'll be fine.
 
#25
#25
Vol-In-Bama said:
I agree with you 100%. This is a toss up game, I think the news that Harrell will play, and the emotion from Inky's injury will also help the Vols to be up for this game.

Go VOLS!!!!
Click to expand...

The sad thing is that all UT games are toss-up games. Love 'em and like to see 'em win, but I never have any fingernails left at the end.
 
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