The Morning After - Sober Reflections Week 7

#1
UTFranklinVol

UTFranklinVol

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#1
My first thought: Tennessee follows up Dark Mode with Checker Neyland and the Vols win an absolute rock fight with Texas jr.

1.Tennessee has a really good running game. They continue to prove if they put up 200+ on the ground they can win. They will absolutely need this going into a pivitol game against a very vulnerable Bama team.
2. The defense is stepping up to the challenge. 2 sacks 2 ints and 5 tfls. The defense was the savior of this game and kept us from losing a very winnable game.
3. The Squirrel White catch was the headline of the USC game and the Dee Williams punt return for TD was the highlight of this week. We absolutely need highlight reel plays to keep winning especially given how the schedule will take a big turn for the worse.
4. We finished the first half of the season strong and pretty much how I thought we would. We really faced a lot of weak competition and I could easily see how we could be 6-0 and in the top 10 right now but I think given what we lost on offense last year we did as well as could be expected.

On second thought...

1. Once again we found a way to win with a sub par QB. As I said at the top this was a rock fight from beginning to end. Strong defense, a dominant running game and a punt return won this for us. Blame whoever you want but the big passing plays aren't hitting home. Yes a couple dropped passes that should have been caught but a bunch that even the announcers said were bad QB mistakes for a guy as old as Milton. Completing just half of his 22 throws for 100 yards and a TD and INT it was clear the strategy in this game was to limit Joe's ability to screw up the game and rely on the running game. Joe is residing at #12 in QBR in the SEC and #9 for the week again like last week the opposing QB was even worse which saved us.
2. The pretend/practice part of the schedule is now concluded and the real football season begins. Unlike the first half which was all cupcakes and easy home games the back half is a minefield of tough road games and trap games. Playing Bama UK and Missouri all on the road is brutal and I think all of those teams are better than Florida which we could not beat on the road. Then a brutal game against the #1 team in the nation doesn't make it look any easier. Thank goodness for Ucon and Candy. At least we know if the very worst happens in the back half we will still win 7 games and be bowl eligible.

Looking ahead to next week...

I think we take it to Bama and we nearly beat them on the road. The only way we win is if Joe somehow hits some big home run passes. I don't think our running game and good defense alone will win this one. More than ever before we need Joe to be the best QB he can be. If we beat Bama, watch out. Our confidence will be at an all time high this year and could carry over into a big second half of the season.
 
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#3
#3
Tennessee has got to figure out the passing game in the back half of the season if we are going to be nationally competitive. It was good to see Heupel acknowledge some poor play calling and coaching decisions after the game.

I'm really thinking we've got to shakeup the status quo in the wide receiver room and get TE Warren more involved in the passing game outside of the red zone. He is a big target who could be a little easier for Milton to hit in the intermediate game. Pass protection seemed to be a big issue in this game. Partly because Joe stands tall in the pocket, partly because of the opponent, partly because receivers weren't getting open.

We've gotta make this really easy for Joe to be successful. Receivers have to run clean routes, get open and catch the catchable passes. Bru's absence was felt in the screen game, which I think contributed to our even lower yardage total. Joe is indecisive, stared down receivers and threw into coverage which was a worrying trend that emerged in the USC game and continue this week.

Joe also needs remedial lessons on situational football: when to tuck it and run, when to pass and specifically a clear decision tree of what to do on fourth down. He falls a part consistently on 4th down and kills drives by making the wrong decision. This has happened multiple times this year. A sign that this is all a mental thing for him. Similar thing with 2 pt tries. It is beyond me why he has not advanced beyond this basic stuff this year, but if we are going to be effective the staff has got to get him running the football in the right situations.
 
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#5
#5
UTFranklinVol said:
My first thought: Tennessee follows up Dark Mode with Checker Neyland and the Vols win an absolute rock fight with Texas jr.

1.Tennessee has a really good running game. They continue to prove if they put up 200+ on the ground they can win. They will absolutely need this going into a pivitol game against a very vulnerable Bama team.
2. The defense is stepping up to the challenge. 2 sacks 2 ints and 5 tfls. The defense was the savior of this game and kept us from losing a very winnable game.
3. The Squirrel White catch was the headline of the USC game and the Dee Williams punt return for TD was the highlight of this week. We absolutely need highlight reel plays to keep winning especially given how the schedule will take a big turn for the worse.
4. We finished the first half of the season strong and pretty much how I thought we would. We really faced a lot of weak competition and I could easily see how we could be 6-0 and in the top 10 right now but I think given what we lost on offense last year we did as well as could be expected.

On second thought...

1. Once again we found a way to win with a sub par QB. As I said at the top this was a rock fight from beginning to end. Strong defense, a dominant running game and a punt return won this for us. Blame whoever you want but the big passing plays aren't hitting home. Yes a couple dropped passes that should have been caught but a bunch that even the announcers said were bad QB mistakes for a guy as old as Milton. Completing just half of his 22 throws for 100 yards and a TD and INT it was clear the strategy in this game was to limit Joe's ability to screw up the game and rely on the running game. Joe is residing at #12 in QBR in the SEC and #9 for the week again like last week the opposing QB was even worse which saved us.
2. The pretend/practice part of the schedule is now concluded and the real football season begins. Unlike the first half which was all cupcakes and easy home games the back half is a minefield of tough road games and trap games. Playing Bama UK and Missouri all on the road is brutal and I think all of those teams are better than Florida which we could not beat on the road. Then a brutal game against the #1 team in the nation doesn't make it look any easier. Thank goodness for Ucon and Candy. At least we know if the very worst happens in the back half we will still win 7 games and be bowl eligible.

Looking ahead to next week...

I think we take it to Bama and we nearly beat them on the road. The only way we win is if Joe somehow hits some big home run passes. I don't think our running game and good defense alone will win this one. More than ever before we need Joe to be the best QB he can be. If we beat Bama, watch out. Our confidence will be at an all time high this year and could carry over into a big second half of the season.
Click to expand...
At this point I'm as concerned about Keyton as I am Milton....... you've undoubtedly not watched Kentucky the past two weeks. There is no way Devin Leary will beat our defense.
 
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#7
#7
We have a problem at wide receiver. With the loss of McCoy, we don't have a dog in that room anymore. Keyton is not dependable as evidenced by all the dropped passes he has had this year, Thorton has not been a factor that I thought he would be, Squirrel has been the one steady pass catcher so far, but it seems the defense has figured that out. As someone else pointed out, Warren needs to be more involved in the passing game, as well as Castles. Castles also needs to stop getting called for penalties that hurt on big plays. The receiving corp is now pretty much down to young guys without much experience, and a lot will be required from them to continue to win the big games that are coming up. I think the game plan against A&M was pound the rock. It worked but we can't become one dimensional or it could get ugly.

I hate to write this part but maybe it might be time to consider seeing if Nico is a better option going forward.
 
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#10
#10
UTFranklinVol said:
The pretend/practice part of the schedule is now concluded and the real football season begins. Unlike the first half which was all cupcakes and easy home games the back half is a minefield of tough road games and trap games. Playing Bama UK and Missouri all on the road is brutal and I think all of those teams are better than Florida....
Click to expand...
Gonna have to stop you right there, friend. Several errors in this paragraph.

1. There is no "pretend" part to the schedule. Every bit of it is equally important, every bit of it counts.
2. Real football has been going on for almost two months now. I'm sorry you missed it.
3. The first half the season included Florida, USCe, and A&M. All three of those are peer competitors to the Vols. All three of them are better than Mizzou and Kentucky.
4. Sure, going on the road to Bama, UK, and (after a cupcake break vs UConn) Mizzou raises the degree of difficulty a bit (Vegas says about 3 points' worth), but UK and Mizzou are always -- always, forever, in perpetuity, for our lifetimes -- going to be less challenging than Florida, A&M, and USCe.

In short, you came up with a nifty premise ("the easy half is over, now we hit the rough half") and tried to twist the facts around to fit it.

They don't fit.

Bama and UGa are going to be big challenges. Wouldn't be surprised if we don't win those matches. But the rest of the back half--Kentucky, UConn, Mizzou, and Vandy--that is all absolutely winnable.

A 9-3 regular season finish seems the most reasonable prognostication at this point. 10-2 and 8-4 are slightly less likely alternate endings.

Go Vols!
 
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#11
#11
barney said:
Tennessee has got to figure out the passing game in the back half of the season if we are going to be nationally competitive. It was good to see Heupel acknowledge some poor play calling and coaching decisions after the game.

I'm really thinking we've got to shakeup the status quo in the wide receiver room and get TE Warren more involved in the passing game outside of the red zone. He is a big target who could be a little easier for Milton to hit in the intermediate game. Pass protection seemed to be a big issue in this game. Partly because Joe stands tall in the pocket, partly because of the opponent, partly because receivers weren't getting open.

We've gotta make this really easy for Joe to be successful. Receivers have to run clean routes, get open and catch the catchable passes. Bru's absence was felt in the screen game, which I think contributed to our even lower yardage total. Joe is indecisive, stared down receivers and threw into coverage which was a worrying trend that emerged in the USC game and continue this week.

Joe also needs remedial lessons on situational football: when to tuck it and run, when to pass and specifically a clear decision tree of what to do on fourth down. He falls a part consistently on 4th down and kills drives by making the wrong decision. This has happened multiple times this year. A sign that this is all a mental thing for him. Similar thing with 2 pt tries. It is beyond me why he has not advanced beyond this basic stuff this year, but if we are going to be effective the staff has got to get him running the football in the right situations.
Click to expand...
I agree on Warren. I feel like he hasn’t been mentioned nearly enough, and should have the length and stoutness to bail Milton out.
 
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#12
#12
BACKDOC said:
At this point I'm as concerned about Keyton as I am Milton....... you've undoubtedly not watched Kentucky the past two weeks. There is no way Devin Leary will beat our defense.
Click to expand...
I admit that UK looks like less of a threat now. They have given up 89 points in the last 2 games lol. But do we have a QB who can take advantage of that especially on the road?
 
#13
#13
Milton’s play AND decision making are flat out Turruble. It’s such a shame because he’s a great kid with a great attitude. I hate it for him because if he can’t succeed under CJH, I don’t see many great developmental QB coaches in the NFL. Maybe he spends the spring with Jordan Palmer.
 
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#14
#14
barney said:
Tennessee has got to figure out the passing game in the back half of the season if we are going to be nationally competitive. It was good to see Heupel acknowledge some poor play calling and coaching decisions after the game.

I'm really thinking we've got to shakeup the status quo in the wide receiver room and get TE Warren more involved in the passing game outside of the red zone. He is a big target who could be a little easier for Milton to hit in the intermediate game. Pass protection seemed to be a big issue in this game. Partly because Joe stands tall in the pocket, partly because of the opponent, partly because receivers weren't getting open.

We've gotta make this really easy for Joe to be successful. Receivers have to run clean routes, get open and catch the catchable passes. Bru's absence was felt in the screen game, which I think contributed to our even lower yardage total. Joe is indecisive, stared down receivers and threw into coverage which was a worrying trend that emerged in the USC game and continue this week.

Joe also needs remedial lessons on situational football: when to tuck it and run, when to pass and specifically a clear decision tree of what to do on fourth down. He falls a part consistently on 4th down and kills drives by making the wrong decision. This has happened multiple times this year. A sign that this is all a mental thing for him. Similar thing with 2 pt tries. It is beyond me why he has not advanced beyond this basic stuff this year, but if we are going to be effective the staff has got to get him running the football in the right situations.
Click to expand...
I agree we need to get the TE more involved especially on slants, our WR's aren't getting it done. Keyton has been disappointing. I say make Squirrel Joe's #1 target, they seemed to have had good chemistry last year. We need to also eliminate one side of the field for Joe. Give him two options on one side, if it's not there he runs. No more standing backing going through progressions and looking to find an open guy. Would like to see him do more RPO's, pull the ball out of the RB basket and then roll out to the corners for some yards
 
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#15
#15
barney said:
Tennessee has got to figure out the passing game in the back half of the season if we are going to be nationally competitive. It was good to see Heupel acknowledge some poor play calling and coaching decisions after the game.

I'm really thinking we've got to shakeup the status quo in the wide receiver room and get TE Warren more involved in the passing game outside of the red zone. He is a big target who could be a little easier for Milton to hit in the intermediate game. Pass protection seemed to be a big issue in this game. Partly because Joe stands tall in the pocket, partly because of the opponent, partly because receivers weren't getting open.

We've gotta make this really easy for Joe to be successful. Receivers have to run clean routes, get open and catch the catchable passes. Bru's absence was felt in the screen game, which I think contributed to our even lower yardage total. Joe is indecisive, stared down receivers and threw into coverage which was a worrying trend that emerged in the USC game and continue this week.

Joe also needs remedial lessons on situational football: when to tuck it and run, when to pass and specifically a clear decision tree of what to do on fourth down. He falls a part consistently on 4th down and kills drives by making the wrong decision. This has happened multiple times this year. A sign that this is all a mental thing for him. Similar thing with 2 pt tries. It is beyond me why he has not advanced beyond this basic stuff this year, but if we are going to be effective the staff has got to get him running the football in the right situations.
Click to expand...
Sorry my friend but at this point, JM is what JM is. At best, a game manager style qb with an occasional (meaning rarely) a catchable bomb and no punitive (in our own end) interceptions. He simply lacks QB1 football situational awareness in my humble opinion. Now, and finally we all can say this out loud......Heup has been saddled with a pack mule instead of a thoroghbred to run his high powered offense and he is obviously without a workable plan to fix or maybe even patch it. We need the defense to continue to play over their heads and hope for turnover and opposing team penalties. Sorry but that is what we got.
 
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#16
#16
Yes the run game was good because of the domination by our offensive line with Cooper mays back. We didn’t have him at Florida, so you have to consider that. We look totally different with him at the helm. I think we do need to get Nico a package or two and get him in the game some against Alabama. He could add some serious wrinkles.

Also I don’t care what you or anyone else says. Playing at the swamp is never a cupcake game
 
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#18
#18
VFL-82-JP said:
Gonna have to stop you right there, friend. Several errors in this paragraph.

1. There is no "pretend" part to the schedule. Every bit of it is equally important, every bit of it counts.
2. Real football has been going on for almost two months now. I'm sorry you missed it.
3. The first half the season included Florida, USCe, and A&M. All three of those are peer competitors to the Vols. All three of them are better than Mizzou and Kentucky.
4. Sure, going on the road to Bama, UK, and (after a cupcake break vs UConn) Mizzou raises the degree of difficulty a bit (Vegas says about 3 points' worth), but UK and Mizzou are always -- always, forever, in perpetuity, for our lifetimes -- going to be less challenging than Florida, A&M, and USCe.

In short, you came up with a nifty premise ("the easy half is over, now we hit the rough half") and tried to twist the facts around to fit it.

They don't fit.

Bama and UGa are going to be big challenges. Wouldn't be surprised if we don't win those matches. But the rest of the back half--Kentucky, UConn, Mizzou, and Vandy--that is all absolutely winnable.

A 9-3 regular season finish seems the most reasonable prognostication at this point. 10-2 and 8-4 are probably equally likely alternate endings.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...

I'll have to respectfully disagree with almost all of that.

1. None of the teams we played in the first half were top25 when we played them.
2a. None are currently top25
2b. UT currently sits 13th in the SEC in strength of schedule so far only Georgia is weaker. ESPN has put our current SoS as 88th in the nation and our remaining schedule is ranked 11th toughest in the nation and the 2nd toughest in the SEC.
3. The UF game was the only true road game and they were by far the toughest team we faced and they are staring a 6-6 record directly in the face and even the most optimistic Florida fan would agree on at least 5 losses
4. I do not believe at all that TAMU or USC will finish as high in the standings as UK or MIZZOU both of those games are much bigger challenges for UT than TAMU or USC. Looking at the schedule USC will be a 6 loss team and TAMU a 5 or 6 loss team. Missouri will not lose that many and UK at worst will lose 5.
5. Go and look back at the last 30 years and find a schedule where the first 6 games were this easy with a combination of unranked teams and home games.
6. Yes all the games count but as I said before the first half was just us practicing for the real challenges of this year's schedule. I'm not sure how you consider any of these facts twisted.
 
#20
#20
Johnnyreb#VFL said:
Yes the run game was good because of the domination by our offensive line with Cooper mays back. We didn’t have him at Florida, so you have to consider that. We look totally different with him at the helm. I think we do need to get Nico a package or two and get him in the game some against Alabama. He could add some serious wrinkles.

Also I don’t care what you or anyone else says. Playing at the swamp is never a cupcake game
Click to expand...
This is why I think we could have been an undefeated team. Florida is no cupcake but are totally pedestrian and beatable. One of the weaker UF teams we have seen over the last few decades.
 
#21
#21
An old stat from back in the day, anytime a Vol running back had over a 100 yards, we won. Hmmm🧐
 
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#24
#24
UTFranklinVol said:
I'll have to respectfully disagree with almost all of that.

1. None of the teams we played in the first half were top25 when we played them.
2a. None are currently top25
2b. UT currently sits 13th in the SEC in strength of schedule so far only Georgia is weaker. ESPN has put our current SoS as 88th in the nation and our remaining schedule is ranked 11th toughest in the nation and the 2nd toughest in the SEC.
3. The UF game was the only true road game and they were by far the toughest team we faced and they are staring a 6-6 record directly in the face and even the most optimistic Florida fan would agree on at least 5 losses
4. I do not believe at all that TAMU or USC will finish as high in the standings as UK or MIZZOU both of those games are much bigger challenges for UT than TAMU or USC. Looking at the schedule USC will be a 6 loss team and TAMU a 5 or 6 loss team. Missouri will not lose that many and UK at worst will lose 5.
5. Go and look back at the last 30 years and find a schedule where the first 6 games were this easy with a combination of unranked teams and home games.
6. Yes all the games count but as I said before the first half was just us practicing for the real challenges of this year's schedule. I'm not sure how you consider any of these facts twisted.
Click to expand...
You seem to believe Ky-Mizzou-Vandy is harder than FL-USCe-A&M.

We went 2-1 vs FL-USCe-A&M. You think we won't do at least that well against Ky-Mizzou-Vandy?

...

All of the strength in our back half schedule comes from Bama and UGa. Period. All of it. None of it comes from Kentucky or Mizzou. They are significantly less challenging than Florida, USCe, or A&M.

I think we'll go 3-0 vs Ky, Mizzou, and Vandy. Make it 4-0 if you add the cupcake UConn.

Only real question is whether we can pull an upset against either Bama or UGa.

Go Vols!
 
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#25
#25
The Original Fade said:
Bama will load the box and force Milton to beat them with his arm. Ain’t happening. Bama wins by 2 scores. Don’t forget they want revenge in a big way
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This is exactly why I said we need Milton to hit some big home run passes to make Bama respect the pass and open up the run game. If we can't do that it will be very tough to win on running and defense alone.
 
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