The Official “Regular Posters of the Basketball Forum” Thread

[walkenvol]

Cardinal rule. Never come on here after a loss. The ignorance is staggering. Odds are stacked against the Vols Saturday and I doubt we win but I’ll bet they give better effort than in the other two road losses.

It’s 10 degrees outside - not too many options.

 

[Chaz-Vol]

Some general thoughts…

-nice couple game bounce back from Lanier to snap out of the cold spell, hopefully that’ll calm some folks down. No shooter is gonna be on every night, but that should ease some folks mind about his ability to get it done in league play. 17 & 23 points the last 2 games, 9-18 from 3 which is a blistering 50%. Again, can’t expect him to always shoot 50%, but benching him or cutting minutes also isn’t the move, you’re talking about a guy tracking as finishing the year with the best single season 3pt shooting display Tennessee fans have ever seen, he’s a weapon and you need him. Thought his defense and overall attention was better tonight, 0 turnovers in 31 minutes, and again, thought the defense was very good.

-Okpara continues to look better and better, he’s playing more physical and showed a better rebounding effort tonight which has been a point of emphasis, no reason he can’t be a double double guy if he’s going to get 30+ minutes like he did tonight, he’s also got a really solid FT stroke which is nice for a big man.

-the defense from the tip was light years better than Saturday at Vandy, was quite clear that the players realized how poorly they were on that end. Much better job of communicating screens, they don’t run as good of stuff as Vandy but still a good job, and a much better job keeping the ball in front of you and not getting beat which causes us to help and then get into a rotation which Vandy seemingly did all night, need that effort and focus defensively going forward.

-complete the 2nd of 6 three game schedules, said the goal was to go 2-1 each time out and that gets you to the 12-6 goal, that’s where things stand as we’re 4-2 a still have a great resume. This next 3 game stretch could quite possibly be the toughest of the year when we look back, @ Auburn then home to Kentucky and Florida, 2-1 definitely feels like it would be a win with that slate. I’ve said it 100x but protecting home court is so important this year, Kentucky has an elite offense and will really test our defense, and we definitely didn’t appear to match up very well with Florida’s size, but hopefully we want revenge in that one.

-as for Auburn, I know this is going to fall on deaf ears, but can we please not do the freak out thing? Going on the road to #1 in what is arguably one of the toughest places to play, with college gameday there, Pearl always extra amped up to play Tennessee, like this has Florida beat down written all over it, I will be quite surprised if this is a very close game late. Again, doesn’t mean we suck or need to fire someone or that the season is over, no protections have us winning that one, it’s a house money game that doesn’t hurt us losing and can just be a giant boost with a win. Again, I’m sure come Saturday it’ll be doom and gloom in here, but I tried.

This is for Saturday based on how the loss plays out.

 

[chuckiepoo]

This is for Saturday based on how the loss plays out.


View attachment 716437

“Meltdown Imminent”

 

[cncchris33]

Man...it's so interesting how a favorable whistle changes things.

Mark Sears leads the SEC in scoring with 19.0 PPG, he's shooting 40.4% FG, 35.3% 3PT
Chaz Lanier is second in the SEC in scoring with 18.4 PPG, he's shooting 41.6%, 42.6% 3PT

But Sears averages 7.6 FTAs per game at 82.8%, Chaz is only getting 2.6 FTAs a game... so 5 more attempts at the line. Now the craziest bit...Chanz averages almost 3 more field goal attempts and over 1 more 2 point attempt per game... he's simply not getting calls at the same rate as Sears does.


I really enjoy the balance of this year's team. Loved DK, and will likely be one of the single greatest individual seasons I've ever seen for a Vol.

But man...

We have 3 players on the team in the top 45 in ppg in the SEC (Chaz, ZZ, Gainey)
We have 2 players on the team in the top 15 in rpg in the SEC (Igor & Felix)
We have 2 players on the team in the top 10 in spg in the SEC (ZZ & Mashack)
We have 2 players on the team in the top 45 in apg in the SEC (ZZ & Igor)
We have 5 players on the team in the top 50 in bpg in the SEC (Felix, Cade, Gainey, Mashack, Igor)

The numbers don't tell the whole story about Lanier and Sears' 2-pt attempts. Chaz doesn't go to the basket much while Sears is always going to the basket. He also handles the ball and is likely getting some FTs at the end of games in fouling situations that ZZ typically gets for us.

 

[MoCo_Vol]

The numbers don't tell the whole story about Lanier and Sears' 2-pt attempts. Chaz doesn't go to the basket much while Sears is always going to the basket. He also handles the ball and is likely getting some FTs at the end of games in fouling situations that ZZ typically gets for us.

I know, but the numbers do tell a good bit of the story. Chaz is the leading shot taker in the SEC but his FTAs would place him 15th among the leading FGA players in league.

"but he takes a lot of 3s," sure he does. Hubbard takes as many 3s a game as Chaz, but 2 less total attempts while getting 1 more attempt per game at the line.

Spears is a pretty extreme example being he's basically a scoring PG... him and Wade could be "thrown out" of the discuss in truth. Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin, Camryn Carter, Sean Pedulla, even Jason Edwards are all guards that frequent the FT line more than Chaz while taking less attempts. We as a team are 14th in FTAs per game in the SEC, now our pace is also the slowest in the SEC so that could be a big part of it as well.

 

[VolsAgainstTheWorld15]

I know, but the numbers do tell a good bit of the story. Chaz is the leading shot taker in the SEC but his FTAs would place him 15th among the leading FGA players in league.

"but he takes a lot of 3s," sure he does. Hubbard takes as many 3s a game as Chaz, but 2 less total attempts while getting 1 more attempt per game at the line.

Spears is a pretty extreme example being he's basically a scoring PG... him and Wade could be "thrown out" of the discuss in truth. Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin, Camryn Carter, Sean Pedulla, even Jason Edwards are all guards that frequent the FT line more than Chaz while taking less attempts. We as a team are 14th in FTAs per game in the SEC, now our pace is also the slowest in the SEC so that could be a big part of it as well.

Without a shot chart, it’s really hard to depict whether or not Lanier should be getting more free throws or not. I can’t speak for Hubbard as I’ve not seen State play until last night, but Lanier doesn’t take the ball all the way to the basket often. Typically he either shoots 3 or pulls up around 12-15 feet.

 

[VolsSportsFan]

Cardinal rule. Never come on here after a loss. The ignorance is staggering. Odds are stacked against the Vols Saturday and I doubt we win but I’ll bet they give better effort than in the other two road losses.

It's going to be about 100000000 times worse Saturday night because it's Bruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuce. Not only will the general drive by idiots show up and tell us how we suck and we're a bubble team and we'd lose in the NIT and be lucky to finish .500; we'll also have even more idiots who show up to remind us that Bruce Pearl used to coach here and that he's the greatest coach ever to step on the court and if we hadn't have fired him we'd have 3 national championships by now.

 

[VolsAgainstTheWorld15]

It's going to be about 100000000 times worse Saturday night because it's Bruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuce. Not only will the general drive by idiots show up and tell us how we suck and we're a bubble team and we'd lose in the NIT and be lucky to finish .500; we'll also have even more idiots who show up to remind us that Bruce Pearl used to coach here and that he's the greatest coach ever to step on the court and if we hadn't have fired him we'd have 3 national championships by now.

The Bruce nut huggers are going to be out in full force. I don’t expect this game to go well for us. They are already licking their chops to come on here to bash Barnes and fawn over Bruce. Never mind that Barnes has won the last three meetings and far outperformed Bruce in the NCAAT the last two seasons.

 

[MoCo_Vol]

Without a shot chart, it’s really hard to depict whether or not Lanier should be getting more free throws or not. I can’t speak for Hubbard as I’ve not seen State play until last night, but Lanier doesn’t take the ball all the way to the basket often. Typically he either shoots 3 or pulls up around 12-15 feet.

I get that, my point is just that high volume usually leads to higher FT attempts. Grant Williams was the last Vol to really get those sort of calls, but he also was the 1st option and played in the paint exclusively.
Grant was shooting a FT on about 63% of his attempts

DK's was shooing a FT on about 36% of his attempts
Chaz is shooting a FT on just 17% of his attempts

Maybe Mark Sears is just that guy...but shooting a FT on 60% of your attempts is a crazy high number. I mean Kennedy Chandler is a great example of this officiating bias, he handled the ball as much as Sears, drove to the rim as much if not more than Sears and he was only shooting a FT on 25% of his attempts.

My heavily orange tinted theory is that so much bellyaching happened over Grant and the Vols that the officiating correction has swung too far the other direction.

Cause some of your top NBA players don't get the sort of whistles Sears sees (and that league calls tons of fouls)

Giannis (leads the league in FTAs) shoots one on 52% of his attempts
SGA shoots one on 38% of his attempts
AD shoots one on 43% of his attempts

 

[MoCo_Vol]

It's going to be about 100000000 times worse Saturday night because it's Bruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuce. Not only will the general drive by idiots show up and tell us how we suck and we're a bubble team and we'd lose in the NIT and be lucky to finish .500; we'll also have even more idiots who show up to remind us that Bruce Pearl used to coach here and that he's the greatest coach ever to step on the court and if we hadn't have fired him we'd have 3 national championships by now.

We would have either made a FF or vacated quite a few wins (or both) had Pearl not been fired...honestly don't know.

Great coach, did great things here but I am far happier with the program under Barnes than I was under Pearl. Call me old fashioned, but I like when the sports heroes are actually stand up individuals you don't have to read about in the recent arrests.

 

[Willy14]

@bleedingTNorange when are you planning on starting the Seed List Watch Party thread? If I remember correctly you usually start it towards the end of January.

 

[cncchris33]

I know, but the numbers do tell a good bit of the story. Chaz is the leading shot taker in the SEC but his FTAs would place him 15th among the leading FGA players in league.

"but he takes a lot of 3s," sure he does. Hubbard takes as many 3s a game as Chaz, but 2 less total attempts while getting 1 more attempt per game at the line.

Spears is a pretty extreme example being he's basically a scoring PG... him and Wade could be "thrown out" of the discuss in truth. Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin, Camryn Carter, Sean Pedulla, even Jason Edwards are all guards that frequent the FT line more than Chaz while taking less attempts. We as a team are 14th in FTAs per game in the SEC, now our pace is also the slowest in the SEC so that could be a big part of it as well.

We also lead the league in 3-pt FGA% (our 3-pt FG attempts/total FG attempts), a large part of which is Chaz Lanier. So, him and Tennessee as a team both take a lot of their attempts from outside the arc.

Neither Lanier, or Tennessee as a whole, attack the basket that often. As you said, our pace plays a role, as well. Combine all those things together and it helps to explain why we don't attempt a ton of FTs as a team. Chaz Lanier is large part of that. Yes, he shoots a lot, but they almost all come from outside the paint (3s, pull-ups, mid-range jumpers, fadeaways). He's just not very likely to get fouled often shooting those types of shots.
Additionally, he doesn't often handle the ball in the halfcourt nor in late-game situations where the opposing team is fouling to extend the game.

TL;DR version: Despite his shot volume, Chaz doesn't shoot shots that generate fouls and free throws.

 

[cardvolfan]

I get that, my point is just that high volume usually leads to higher FT attempts. Grant Williams was the last Vol to really get those sort of calls, but he also was the 1st option and played in the paint exclusively.
Grant was shooting a FT on about 63% of his attempts

DK's was shooing a FT on about 36% of his attempts
Chaz is shooting a FT on just 17% of his attempts

Maybe Mark Sears is just that guy...but shooting a FT on 60% of your attempts is a crazy high number. I mean Kennedy Chandler is a great example of this officiating bias, he handled the ball as much as Sears, drove to the rim as much if not more than Sears and he was only shooting a FT on 25% of his attempts.

My heavily orange tinted theory is that so much bellyaching happened over Grant and the Vols that the officiating correction has swung too far the other direction.

Cause some of your top NBA players don't get the sort of whistles Sears sees (and that league calls tons of fouls)

Giannis (leads the league in FTAs) shoots one on 52% of his attempts
SGA shoots one on 38% of his attempts
AD shoots one on 43% of his attempts

High volume does not necessarily correlate to a higher number of free throws. It can, but it can lead to a lower volume as well, depending on a number of factors.

 

[cardvolfan]

We would have either made a FF or vacated quite a few wins (or both) had Pearl not been fired...honestly don't know.

Great coach, did great things here but I am far happier with the program under Barnes than I was under Pearl. Call me old fashioned, but I like when the sports heroes are actually stand up individuals you don't have to read about in the recent arrests.

No one can make that definitive prediction on a Final Four, or on the wins being vacated. Maybe, but maybe not.

 

[Delmar]

It's going to be about 100000000 times worse Saturday night because it's Bruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuce. Not only will the general drive by idiots show up and tell us how we suck and we're a bubble team and we'd lose in the NIT and be lucky to finish .500; we'll also have even more idiots who show up to remind us that Bruce Pearl used to coach here and that he's the greatest coach ever to step on the court and if we hadn't have fired him we'd have 3 national championships by now.

Bruce would probably still be here if he had just acknowledged the cookout instead of lying about it. Would have been a slap on the wrist. Bruce was/is a really good coach. Rick is just a good without the questionable character traits.

 

[jtipto10]

Not sure if anyone in this thread reads Will Warren, but he's a UT grad, lives in Knoxville, and is probably the most advanced statistician that doesn't have his own nationally recognized ranking system that I regularly keep up with. Jimmy Dykes gives him shout outs on broadcasts every once in a while. He's real quality analysis.

He used to do a preview of every UT game, but he gave it up this year to focus on college basketball on a national level. His article today is mainly about variance in basketball and how bad (or good) games/stretches happen. It focuses on uconn and florida this year and how they are on opposite ends of the spectrum and expects both to regress to the mean, really high quality stuff.

All that being said, for anyone that gets hung up on single games or small stretches of games, for the love of God, subscribe to him for $5/month

 

[MoCo_Vol]

We also lead the league in 3-pt FGA% (our 3-pt FG attempts/total FG attempts), a large part of which is Chaz Lanier. So, him and Tennessee as a team both take a lot of their attempts from outside the arc.

Neither Lanier, or Tennessee as a whole, attack the basket that often. As you said, our pace plays a role, as well. Combine all those things together and it helps to explain why we don't attempt a ton of FTs as a team. Chaz Lanier is large part of that. Yes, he shoots a lot, but they almost all come from outside the paint (3s, pull-ups, mid-range jumpers, fadeaways). He's just not very likely to get fouled often shooting those types of shots.
Additionally, he doesn't often handle the ball in the halfcourt nor in late-game situations where the opposing team is fouling to extend the game.

TL;DR version: Despite his shot volume, Chaz doesn't shoot shots that generate fouls and free throws.

Gainey is shooting a FT on 45% of his attempts, so he's attacking the basket a lot more this year which is a positive imo.

 

[cncchris33]

Gainey is shooting a FT on 45% of his attempts, so he's attacking the basket a lot more this year which is a positive imo.

Yeah, outside of ZZ, who clearly has size issues, Gainey is probably our most aggressive offensive perimeter player.

 

[VolsSportsFan]

No one can make that definitive prediction on a Final Four, or on the wins being vacated. Maybe, but maybe not.

That's where I am. It's fun to "what if" and he definitely had us in a great spot but you can't really say one or another that we'd be in a Final Four. And I'm not saying that was happening in this conversation but more the drive bys that come in and proclaim it would be so and it's just silly to say.

Especially considered the revisionist history going on, before that EE run many of the same types were questioning if Pearl was the guy due to the lack of postseason success.

 

[VolsSportsFan]

Bruce would probably still be here if he had just acknowledged the cookout instead of lying about it. Would have been a slap on the wrist. Bruce was/is a really good coach. Rick is just a good without the questionable character traits.

Definitely. I think his punishment was overkill still but at the same time he did it so you can't really complain.

I wonder things like how he'd be seen if say that EE run was his ceiling. Like say the BBQ thing didn't and nothing else did but 5-6 years later we hadn't gotten past the S16 would the same fans be calling for his head and saying he was "Regular Season Bruce"?

 

[chuckiepoo]

Definitely. I think his punishment was overkill still but at the same time he did it so you can't really complain.

I wonder things like how he'd be seen if say that EE run was his ceiling. Like say the BBQ thing didn't and nothing else did but 5-6 years later we hadn't gotten past the S16 would the same fans be calling for his head and saying he was "Regular Season Bruce"?

Probably. But Bruce did not have the 17 year history at Texas preceding him. It’s almost like a select group picked up on the negaBevo’s litany. Without question a few negaBevos followed Barnes to Knoxville.

 

[walkenvol]

Probably. But Bruce did not have the 17 year history at Texas preceding him. It’s almost like a select group picked up on the negaBevo’s litany. Without question a few negaBevos followed Barnes to Knoxville.

I also think there’s a lot of folks who look for ways to put down folks who try to live a Christian life, hence the “Deacon” remarks. TIFWIW

 

[chuckiepoo]

I also think there’s a lot of folks who look for ways to put down folks who try to live a Christian life, hence the “Deacon” remarks. TIFWIW

Yes, sadly. Terms and phrases in the accusation indicate that strong bias.

 

[VolFreakJosh]

Remind me to stay away from this forum on Saturday

 

[Col_Cathcart]

No one can make that definitive prediction on a Final Four, or on the wins being vacated. Maybe, but maybe not.

I’m pretty confident about the vacated wins side of it. No way to know on the FF.