State plays solid basketball. They are quick, and the two Weatherspoons are good guards. Q is better than Nick, but both get a lot of minutes. The other main guard Peters is the real 3 ball threat, but all of them shoot well, so we are going to need a solid defensive effort from the guards. I've only seen four or five of their games this year, but they tend to hang around, and they are always dangerous.
The inside game is going to be tough. They have 3 solid big men in Holman, Perry and Ado. They rebound very well, and for big men shoot FTs well. We need to keep our guys out of foul trouble, because FT shooting has kept them in some games. I do expect our guys to struggle a bit on the glass. Holman and Perry are sort of Alexander size with Ado a little bigger. They do throw up a lot of 3s, so hopefully we can snag some of the long rebounds.
They definitely have played better at home than on the road, and I am glad this game is in Knoxville. Their most impressive road win so far would be at Ole Miss, who they lost to earlier this year at home. They have had some tough losses, at Alabama and a 21point beatdown at Rupp, and a solid home win against Auburn.
They just lost a game at Auburn where they trailed by 10-15 until about 6 mins left, then pulled it to a one possession game. If they had shot their average 3pt percentage they would have won that game. Shots just weren't falling until late.
To me our keys to winning are:
Solid defense from the guards. Keep them from getting open looks, and force them to pass inside. We give up some length inside but not talent. We could see a lot of the Bone, Turner, Bowden/Pons looks tonight.
Keep the rebounding battle close. You give them a bunch of offensive rebound kick outs to open 3s, they will make you pay. We don't necessarily have to win that battle, but we need to make the kick out passes hard.
Speed. We are much faster than State. I think we can wear them down. They may hold it close in the first, but look for us to push them in the 2nd. They do sub a ton to try and limit this, but there is the typical large drop off once you get past the first 6. Feed Williams inside...they don't have anyone quick enough to stop him from the post.
Alexander/Fulk...we are going to need both of them to play their best basketball. They don't have to win it for us, but we really need them to not lose it for us. Their big guys shoot FT well....don't give them the opportunity. Just play solid D and deny the inside pass. I like our guards chances of limiting their 3s, we just need a good, solid effort from our big guys.
All in all, State is an average SEC basketball team. We should handle these guys at home, and it honestly shouldn't be close, though not a blow out either. The line at 8 seem pretty accurate to me. If this were in Starkville....I think we would be looking at another Ole Miss type game, but in Knoxville....Vols hold a comfortable but not going away lead the whole game. I see this one bouncing between a UT lead of 6-12 all night.
