MAD
Arsenal FC, Detroit Lions
- Joined
- Aug 10, 2006
- Messages
- 48,480
- Likes
- 118,442
Thank you Z for the write up, enjoyed reading. I’m realizing it’s a lot harder being a fan when you have high expectations.Went ahead and did my thoughts on the Lions since the bye @Chippo @MAD
1. OL Injuries: This team starts with their offensive line. That is how Detroit is going to win games, when their OL is healthy and dominate. Over the last month the injuries have caught up to them. Decker is on the injury report with a bad back and has allowed seven sacks over the last three weeks. Ragnow is dealing with a knee injury and is still questionable for Saturday. Jackson’s hand injury will be a season long issue. Nobody is 100% at this time of year, but having those guys all dealing with stuff that’s more than nagging is a blow. When the Lions are at their best, this group plays like the best OL in the league. Right now, they are reeling and it affects every part of the team.
2. Slow Starts on Defense: The defense obviously has issues, there is no doubt about that. They are not playing consistent football. But what is handicapping the team is the consistently slow starts. Since the Chargers game (last four games), the Lions have allowed opening drive touchdowns in three games and an additional 10 points on the second drive. That simply can’t happen. This offense does not function well playing from behind and it gives the offense momentum. The offense always has an advantage to start the game, that is not uncommon with scripted plays. But Aaron Glenn has to get the defense firing quicker. In the New Orleans games, they got a turnover on the first drive and a 3&out on the second. Lions were up 21-0 and won. That’s the formula. You will give up yards, but stop allowing points so easily.
3. Defense Keying on Amon-Ra St. Brown: A stat I am not sure I would ever see this year. In the last two games, St. Brown has had 15 targets and only five catches. That’s an anomaly for this career. The three drops on one drive (!!!) against Chicago did not help, but teams are really taking away what St. Brown does. It’s why Sam LaPorta had such a monster game against New Orleans and why the offense never had any consistent flow in the second half. Ben Johnson is bright and he will get come up with answers, but this is something to look for. How will the Lions adjust with defense putting more doubles and press coverage on St. Brown?
4. Second Round Misses: I praise Brad Holmes consistently as a very good talent evaluator and his draft choices. I don’t want to imply he is doing a poor job. But the draft picks of Levi Onwuzurike and Josh Paschal as second round picks are showing up on the defensive line. Those guys were expected to be solid, three down linemen when they were drafted and neither has become that. Onwuzurike has shown little ability or consistency after his back injuries. Paschal is serviceable but doesn’t stand out in anyway, especially as a pass rusher. He is a decent run supporting DE that can move inside if needed. Those are disappointments. And it’s hurting the team because they were relying on those guys in 2023 and did not go out and get an impact DL, hoping one of those players could step up in a big role. Holmes is doing a swell job but those particular misses hurt.
5. Blitz More/Change DB Formula: My dad and I were talking about our frustrations with the Lions inability to get sacks and consistent pressure outside of Hutchinson. He said “I’d rather get beat giving the QB 3 seconds to throw in man coverage than 7 seconds to throw in zone coverage” and I believe that might be the best approach for the defense. The Lions did have some success blitzing Chicago and New Orleans and were able to get some pressure and finish some plays. It’s obvious we don’t have the corners to do this every play, but I do believe on third down this should be the strategy. Play your best cover defenders and blitz 6 each play. You will get beat but I’d rather be aggressive and get beat. Also, stop playing Field/Boundary and have Cam Sutton follow the #1 receiver every play. Watching DJ Moore and Chris Olave torch Jerry Jacobs, who is a below average CB to begin with, is driving me insane. Stop being stubborn and have Sutton follow the best WR please.
6. Jared Goff Issues: The last four games for Jared have been the worst stretch since he had Anthony Lynn calling plays in mid-2021. Goff has committed an insane amount of turnovers over the last four games, eight in total. This has been very unlike him and he’s playing the worst ball since Ben Johnson took over. Some of this isn’t his fault. The OL injuries and the inconsistency at some spots have hurt. Defenses have adjusted to the passing concepts. Some of it is trying to force the ball/make plays in tough spots. We know what Goff is. He’s a good quarterback that sees the field well but cannot making plays off script. Since the script has had a lot more halts, it’s put more pressure on him and he has faltered. Improved protection and some better concepts should help. I’d also get him in rhythm quicker. I’m all for establishing the run game. But some more easy first down throws and diversity I believe will help the offense flow better.
7. McNeil injury: I don’t know if Alim is one of the five best players for Detroit. But he is one of the five most important players on the team (Hutchinson, Sewell, Ragnow and Goff) in what he brings. He’s become a complete three down DT and I mentioned I thought he had played as a top 10 DT in the NFL this year a few weeks ago. Him going on IR is a major blow and you saw some of that against Chicago. He’s a mean run stopper that can break down the middle of an OL. The Lions overall depth at DT is probably the weakest on the team outside of CB and the Lions have to adjust. You saw more of Hutchinson, Cominsky and Paschal inside on passing downs. We saw Isaiah Buggs get activated and get some reps. Tyson Alualu is fine as a vet who can help on 3rd down, but not much else. Good news is Alim is expected to be back by Week 18 and get some reps. But the Lions are going to have to put a band aid on this until he gets back.
8. Gibbs>Montgomery: I do not want to take away from David Montgomery. He has been excellent this year and is a valuable member of this team. But it is time for Jahmyr Gibbs to get the #1 role. The Lions lack of big play pass ability is a downer and you can see teams are creeping up and playing more press coverage. They need more explosiveness on offense. 8-10 play drives are really hard to sustain. Gibbs’ big play ability opens up the offense more. Yes, he might not get the four yards Monty can provide on a couple runs, but we have seen that Gibbs’ quickness can get them 30-40 yard runs that the offense sorely needs more of. Plus, his third down pass catching is a needed weapon right now to help Goff. I’m not advocating for a 75-25 split or anything crazy. But might be time for Jahymr to get 55% of the RB snaps instead of 40%.
9. Sam LaPorta Praise: Since I don’t want this to be entirely doom writing, I wanted to give a shout out to Sam LaPorta and the work he has put in in 2023. He is having a monster season, providing an absolute boost to his offense. First year TE’s usually do not become every down players their rookie seasons. There is so much work and fundamentals that have to be put in at the TE position in today’s game, with the passing concepts and the run blocking assignments. What he has done in 2023 has been incredible. He’s a menace in the passing game and his run blocking is very solid. They even used him as an H-Back in multiple sets against New Orleans! What a great pick by Brad Holmes and company. There is a solid chance LaPorta becomes the best TE in football in the next 3-4 years if he stays healthy.
10. Win The Next 2, Division Champs: There is some understood negativity among Lions’ fans right now. They have not put played a complete game over the last six weeks (last one was Oakland and even then that was sloppy) and they are 2-2 in their last four games with losses to division rivals. That will always get a fan base riled up. I’m not overtly worried. The defense hasn’t been a disaster. It’s more just not playing complimentary football with the offense and the first drive/red zone woes. If you told any Lions fan in August that Detroit would be 9-4 with a two-game lead in the division, I believe that everyone would take that, no notes. Is Detroit a better team if they had lost to Kansas City in September but beat Chicago on Sunday? I don’t believe that to be true. Tighten up the hatches on defense, find that creative spark on offense and get back to playing aggressive, complimentary football Dan Campbell’s team have become known for. All your goals (win the division, home playoff game) are still there. Focus up and get the job done. You can be division champs in 11 days.
Thank you zjc for your outstanding analysisWent ahead and did my thoughts on the Lions since the bye @Chippo @MAD
1. OL Injuries: This team starts with their offensive line. That is how Detroit is going to win games, when their OL is healthy and dominate. Over the last month the injuries have caught up to them. Decker is on the injury report with a bad back and has allowed seven sacks over the last three weeks. Ragnow is dealing with a knee injury and is still questionable for Saturday. Jackson’s hand injury will be a season long issue. Nobody is 100% at this time of year, but having those guys all dealing with stuff that’s more than nagging is a blow. When the Lions are at their best, this group plays like the best OL in the league. Right now, they are reeling and it affects every part of the team.
2. Slow Starts on Defense: The defense obviously has issues, there is no doubt about that. They are not playing consistent football. But what is handicapping the team is the consistently slow starts. Since the Chargers game (last four games), the Lions have allowed opening drive touchdowns in three games and an additional 10 points on the second drive. That simply can’t happen. This offense does not function well playing from behind and it gives the offense momentum. The offense always has an advantage to start the game, that is not uncommon with scripted plays. But Aaron Glenn has to get the defense firing quicker. In the New Orleans games, they got a turnover on the first drive and a 3&out on the second. Lions were up 21-0 and won. That’s the formula. You will give up yards, but stop allowing points so easily.
3. Defense Keying on Amon-Ra St. Brown: A stat I am not sure I would ever see this year. In the last two games, St. Brown has had 15 targets and only five catches. That’s an anomaly for this career. The three drops on one drive (!!!) against Chicago did not help, but teams are really taking away what St. Brown does. It’s why Sam LaPorta had such a monster game against New Orleans and why the offense never had any consistent flow in the second half. Ben Johnson is bright and he will get come up with answers, but this is something to look for. How will the Lions adjust with defense putting more doubles and press coverage on St. Brown?
4. Second Round Misses: I praise Brad Holmes consistently as a very good talent evaluator and his draft choices. I don’t want to imply he is doing a poor job. But the draft picks of Levi Onwuzurike and Josh Paschal as second round picks are showing up on the defensive line. Those guys were expected to be solid, three down linemen when they were drafted and neither has become that. Onwuzurike has shown little ability or consistency after his back injuries. Paschal is serviceable but doesn’t stand out in anyway, especially as a pass rusher. He is a decent run supporting DE that can move inside if needed. Those are disappointments. And it’s hurting the team because they were relying on those guys in 2023 and did not go out and get an impact DL, hoping one of those players could step up in a big role. Holmes is doing a swell job but those particular misses hurt.
5. Blitz More/Change DB Formula: My dad and I were talking about our frustrations with the Lions inability to get sacks and consistent pressure outside of Hutchinson. He said “I’d rather get beat giving the QB 3 seconds to throw in man coverage than 7 seconds to throw in zone coverage” and I believe that might be the best approach for the defense. The Lions did have some success blitzing Chicago and New Orleans and were able to get some pressure and finish some plays. It’s obvious we don’t have the corners to do this every play, but I do believe on third down this should be the strategy. Play your best cover defenders and blitz 6 each play. You will get beat but I’d rather be aggressive and get beat. Also, stop playing Field/Boundary and have Cam Sutton follow the #1 receiver every play. Watching DJ Moore and Chris Olave torch Jerry Jacobs, who is a below average CB to begin with, is driving me insane. Stop being stubborn and have Sutton follow the best WR please.
6. Jared Goff Issues: The last four games for Jared have been the worst stretch since he had Anthony Lynn calling plays in mid-2021. Goff has committed an insane amount of turnovers over the last four games, eight in total. This has been very unlike him and he’s playing the worst ball since Ben Johnson took over. Some of this isn’t his fault. The OL injuries and the inconsistency at some spots have hurt. Defenses have adjusted to the passing concepts. Some of it is trying to force the ball/make plays in tough spots. We know what Goff is. He’s a good quarterback that sees the field well but cannot making plays off script. Since the script has had a lot more halts, it’s put more pressure on him and he has faltered. Improved protection and some better concepts should help. I’d also get him in rhythm quicker. I’m all for establishing the run game. But some more easy first down throws and diversity I believe will help the offense flow better.
7. McNeil injury: I don’t know if Alim is one of the five best players for Detroit. But he is one of the five most important players on the team (Hutchinson, Sewell, Ragnow and Goff) in what he brings. He’s become a complete three down DT and I mentioned I thought he had played as a top 10 DT in the NFL this year a few weeks ago. Him going on IR is a major blow and you saw some of that against Chicago. He’s a mean run stopper that can break down the middle of an OL. The Lions overall depth at DT is probably the weakest on the team outside of CB and the Lions have to adjust. You saw more of Hutchinson, Cominsky and Paschal inside on passing downs. We saw Isaiah Buggs get activated and get some reps. Tyson Alualu is fine as a vet who can help on 3rd down, but not much else. Good news is Alim is expected to be back by Week 18 and get some reps. But the Lions are going to have to put a band aid on this until he gets back.
8. Gibbs>Montgomery: I do not want to take away from David Montgomery. He has been excellent this year and is a valuable member of this team. But it is time for Jahmyr Gibbs to get the #1 role. The Lions lack of big play pass ability is a downer and you can see teams are creeping up and playing more press coverage. They need more explosiveness on offense. 8-10 play drives are really hard to sustain. Gibbs’ big play ability opens up the offense more. Yes, he might not get the four yards Monty can provide on a couple runs, but we have seen that Gibbs’ quickness can get them 30-40 yard runs that the offense sorely needs more of. Plus, his third down pass catching is a needed weapon right now to help Goff. I’m not advocating for a 75-25 split or anything crazy. But might be time for Jahymr to get 55% of the RB snaps instead of 40%.
9. Sam LaPorta Praise: Since I don’t want this to be entirely doom writing, I wanted to give a shout out to Sam LaPorta and the work he has put in in 2023. He is having a monster season, providing an absolute boost to his offense. First year TE’s usually do not become every down players their rookie seasons. There is so much work and fundamentals that have to be put in at the TE position in today’s game, with the passing concepts and the run blocking assignments. What he has done in 2023 has been incredible. He’s a menace in the passing game and his run blocking is very solid. They even used him as an H-Back in multiple sets against New Orleans! What a great pick by Brad Holmes and company. There is a solid chance LaPorta becomes the best TE in football in the next 3-4 years if he stays healthy.
10. Win The Next 2, Division Champs: There is some understood negativity among Lions’ fans right now. They have not put played a complete game over the last six weeks (last one was Oakland and even then that was sloppy) and they are 2-2 in their last four games with losses to division rivals. That will always get a fan base riled up. I’m not overtly worried. The defense hasn’t been a disaster. It’s more just not playing complimentary football with the offense and the first drive/red zone woes. If you told any Lions fan in August that Detroit would be 9-4 with a two-game lead in the division, I believe that everyone would take that, no notes. Is Detroit a better team if they had lost to Kansas City in September but beat Chicago on Sunday? I don’t believe that to be true. Tighten up the hatches on defense, find that creative spark on offense and get back to playing aggressive, complimentary football Dan Campbell’s team have become known for. All your goals (win the division, home playoff game) are still there. Focus up and get the job done. You can be division champs in 11 days.