The Official Detroit Lions Den Thread

#7,553
#7,553
I can't sleep, I wrote a Lions centric preview.

1. Containing Daniels- You can make the case that Daniels is the best scrambling QB in the world, and he showed what he can do against Tampa Bay last week. Since Week 11, the Lions have the best pressure rate in the NFL. That hasn’t led to a ton of sacks. But what is has done is collapse the pocket. If you watch the Vikings game, Detroit was constantly in Darnold’s face, and collapsing the play from the tackle box within. This caused major issues for Darnold and affected his field vision throughout the game. To me, I’m not concerned as much about sacks. What I am concerned about is making Daniels stay in the pocket and get to his other reads. If Detroit can get him off his first read with pressure and force him to make decisions passing, the pressure will affect him. If Detroit collapses the pocket and make Daniels stick in the pocket, they should be fine.

2. Shutting Down McLaurin- This goes with point #1 in making Daniels get to his other reads. McLaurin gets over 20% of targets in Washington’s defense, both against man and zone coverage. We know what Aaron Glenn is going to do and that is play man coverage. Against Minnesota, they did some shading to Justin Jefferson’s side (they did more shading in the first game against Minnesota) but Detroit usually leaves their guys on an island. McLaurin is an excellent WR (in my opinion, top 10) but he is not the most imposing wideout. This is where I believe they go with Amik Robertson against McLaurin. Arnold is good against #2 WR’s but he has struggled playing against the elite guys. Amik will not be afraid of the challenge and rarely lets anyone get behind him. If you can stick with him, the other Washington pass catchers are not dangerous enough to beat you, especially against man coverage. I don’t believe you can shut down McLaurin, but if you limit his targets then you give yourself a great chance.

3. Stick With The Run- I love Ben Johnson. He’s a certifiable genius play caller and schemer, earning full trust as the offensive mastermind in Detroit. He has one flaw however and that he will waddle a little too deep in the passing game. Usually, this isn’t an issue because Detroit is an elite passing team. But Ben will get greedy and try to force the passing game, especially if the run game isn’t efficient early in game. This would be a mistake in this game. Washington has a bottom ten run defense in a myriad of statistics. With Montgomery back and with Gibbs’ performances the last three weeks, Johnson needs to lean on the run game. I suspect Washington will try and stack the box and play aggressive against pass catchers at the line of scrimmage to try and contain Detroit’s rushing attack. Detroit still should work the run game and lean on Gibbs, knowing he can break one on any play.

4. Montgomery’s Pass Protection- Gibbs does his absolute best and let the heavens bless Craig Reynolds but this has been an area of weakness for Detroit when Montgomery was out. They need Montgomery for his pass protection especially on 3rd down. He is incredibly adept at knowing what blitzes to pick up and his natural strength makes him a great foe against rushers. Gibbs and Reynolds have performed the job admirably, but Montgomery provides a different level in protecting Goff. If Montgomery is less effective running the ball due to injury, it will be perfectly acceptable with his pass protection capabilities.

5. Potential Jameson Williams Breakout- Detroit was the best passing team against man coverage in the NFL this year. The difference between them and the 2nd team (in EPA per drop back) was as large as the difference between the 2nd team (Baltimore Ravens) and 23rd team (Chicago Bears, thank you Robert Mays for that stat). Usually, in order to help against the run, you play more man. And while Washington has been better in man coverage since moving Mikey Sanristil to outside CB, they are still below average. This is where Jameson Williams can have a field day. If Washington tries to blitz, he can access the middle of the field and let his speed make big plays. I would not be surprised if Detroit focused on attacking the middle of the field with Williams on their in breakers and crossing routes. And watch for a planned play action pass from Goff to Williams on a deep post.

6. The Man In The Mirror- The Lions and Commanders are two of the most aggressive teams on 4th down and there is a hearty chance that this game could come down to the 4th down conversions. Washington has used 4th down as a weapon to help their defense and the aggressive mindset lead them to victory against Tampa Bay last week. I’m curious if Quinn takes even more chances against Detroit. Washington knows they need to keep the ball out of Detroit’s hands to give themselves a real chance at victory. We know Detroit will not change their mindset and be aggressive. Will Dan Quinn try and outmatch the aggressive mindset Dan Campbell brings?

7. Zeitler Injury Impact- I do not want to diminish what Kevin Zeitler has accomplished in his one year in Detroit, he has been excellent considering what he was paid. But if you were to say one lineman was to be injured and not affect Detroit’s offense, he would be the guy. Kayode Awosika has been perfectly capable the last two years as a replacement option, and we saw what Christian Mahogany did in his start against Chicago in December. Detroit might be a little simpler in their run designs but with two weeks to prepare without Zeitler I do not believe it will affect Detroit much in this game.

8. Washington RB’s in the pass game- The Lions have not been good against RB’s in the passing game, ranking 30th in success rate against RB’s catching passes. The Commanders love to use Austin Ekeler in the passing game, especially on 2nd and 3rd down. The Lions do have Anzalone back which will help with some of the coverage but you could see some Jalen Reeves-Maybin with how much base Detroit plays. It will be important to key on Ekeler on 3rd down.

9. Break LaPorta Out The Garage- Sam LaPorta had a fine year. He improved as a run blocker. He had 7 TD's and 726 yards in 16 games. He actually increased some efficiency numbers. But he wasn't used anywhere near as much as last year (from 120 targets to 83). A significant part of that is Jameson Williams' ascension. Some of that is the Lions usage of RB's in both the pass and run game. And I think, just maybe...the Lions have him parked in the garage. I just feel like they were saving LaPorta for the good stuff in January and February. I think you are going to see Goff look towards LaPorta early and often in this game with a new wrinkle or two. Just something I would keep an eye on.

10. One Piece At A Time- The Lions won their division. That was piece #1 going into 2024. The Lions attained the #1 seed in the NFC. That was piece #2. Saturday is piece #3 with a home divisional game. You know the place will be rocking from the start and that the Lions should be wired to go after a much needed bye week. They are healthier than they were a month ago, having Anzalone back rejuvenated the defense and Montgomery being back will help keep Gibbs fresh late in games. I think Washington will compete. I don't think it will be a blowout and I wouldn't be surprised if Washington covered. But Detroit is an 8.5 point favorite for a reason. The last 15 playoff games with a favorite of at least 8 points has won the game and covered 66%. Detroit will lean on the run game and while they will give up yards to Daniels, they will hold them to field goals with a couple key stops on 4th down. I think Detroit gets a touchdown with about five minutes to go to take a 10 or 11 point lead. Daniels will then turn the ball over trying to play catch or Detroit forces a turnover or down clinching the victory. Give me the Lions 34-23.
 
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#7,557
#7,557
General Jack said:
We have an amazing pizza place here in Austin called Via 313, the 313 an obvious homage to Detroit. Their Detroiter pizza is bomb and that's what I'm having Sat night for the game.

VIA 313 – Genuine Detroit Style Pizza

www.via313.com www.via313.com
Click to expand...


I assume you mean Austin, Texas.

I’m unsurprised a Lions fan would be eating Detroit Deep Dish pizza in A Pizzeria when the Lions play the Commanders in a NFL second round Playoffs game.
 
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#7,558
#7,558
The Commanders have a terrible rush defense, and the Lions have a strong rushing attack so most likely the Lions should have a great offensive game for rushing yards, and that is a realistic factual reason why this Second Round Playoffs game in Detroit Rock City could be lopsided.

Also, because the Lions defense can get pressure on Daniels making it more likely he’ll make the common critical Rookie mistakes, and because the Indoor stadium makes it most challenging for the Commanders since the thundering noise is contained.
 
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