MAD
Arsenal FC, Detroit Lions
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The Detroit Lions since hiring Dan Campbell:
2021: 3-13
2022: 9-8
2023: 12-5, Loss in NFC Championship
2024: 15-2
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This is an insane road schedule.
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I think one of our road games will be played in Germany
That was excellent Z. It’s funny reading your comments about Gibbs. I remember that night vividly and how upset you were as well as the media giving us a low grade for that pick.1. If you want to make the case Andy Reid deserves to be coach of the year, I will listen to the argument. Besides him and Dan Campbell, nobody else can stake the claim as coach of the year. It's hilarious how often I have to hear what awesome coaches Kevin O'Connell and Matt LaFleur are (and they are very good head coaches) yet nobody brings up Dan is now an incredible 11-3 against them as Detroit's head coach. But they call plays and Dan doesn't so he won't get included as a genius head coach. He's a top 5 head coach in the league. His guys always come to play (the Lions were within one score of every game this year and have only lost by double digits twice in the last two years), their player development is fantastic, he hired two of the best coordinators in the league and his aggressiveness gives them a significant edge because the other team is petrified of trying to keep up. He made two tough 4th down decisions last night and it led to 14 points. He rallied his defense to shut down Minnesota and their top 5 offense. And his belief in Jared Goff has helped establish JG as a top 5 QB in the game right now. Like I said, I'll list to your case for Reid. Campbell is my coach of the year.
2. After Thursday night of the 2023 NFL draft, I was incensed. I could not believe that Brad Holmes used a premium pick (#6 overall) and turned it into a RB. Not only a RB, a 5'9 RB that wasn't even listed as RB1 in his class. I wrote that night "Brad Holmes just gave up a grand slam". And I was dead wrong. Jahmyr Gibbs is a top 5 RB in football and his ability to take it for 6 at any time just completely changes what the offense brings. He's a nightmare matchup in the pass game (what he did to Blake Cashman on the 4th down TD should be illegal) and when he gets outside he's damn near unstoppable. Because Detroit had the foresight to have two excellent RB's, the Lions had a fresh Gibbs the final 3 games when Montgomery went down. In the final 3 games, Jah had 25 touches per game for 162.4 yards and 6 TD's. 250 carries with a 5.65 YPC is insane and he had 20 TD's. He should be an All-Pro this year and Brad Holmes was not only able to get a superstar RB, he got a Pro Bowl caliber TE as well with the trade down. Genius work.
3. The 2024 draft class is Brad Holmes' worse and that's not even meant as an insult. This happens when you use draft capital for trades and signings, along with drafting later in rounds. Terrion Arnold's PFF grade sucks and I don't really care. He's a capable CB and while he will most likely never be a shutdown #1, having a more than capable CB like him on a rookie deal is a win. Ennis Rakestraw never was able to get off the ground. He only got 46 snaps on defense and battled injuries all year. That's tough. Giovanni Manu didn't play this year and was inactive for every game which nobody was surprised by. I still didn't like the pick but that was a 2026 pick, not a 2024 pick. Sione Vaki is fine, he's a great special teamers and for RB3 in mop up time didn't kill Detroit. We will see if he can improve next year. Mekhi Wingo played well in his limited role and provided solid depth on passing downs. Having him go to IR hurt the depth and hopefully he comes back healthy in 2025. Christian Mahogany is going to be a starting OG in this league. He played very well in the Chicago game and has a chance to be a starter in 2025. Overall, if Arnold/Mahogany/Wingo are solid contributors, I will take it.
4. Let's play a hypothetical. Let's say the Lions traded up and took Kenny Pickett (just bear with me). And let's say the Lions traded Jared Goff to some team needing a QB and was able to cobble up picks to take Jameson Williams. Now, let's say Kenny Pickett put up the same exact stats as Jared Goff in 2024. Wouldn't Kenny Pickett be the MVP favorite? Goff finished 2nd in completion percentage, 2nd in yards, 4th in passing TD's, 2nd in YPA, 2nd in passer rating and 2nd in AY/A. He led a moribund franchise that had not won a division title in 30 years to their second straight. He led his team to a 15 win regular season, only the 9th time in NFL history. And yet, it's all talk about Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. What am I missing? Because he played bad in a Super Bowl 6 years ago against the best defense in the NFL? Because he's not athletic? Because Sean McVay discarded him and McVay is a god so it was all Goff's fault? I just find it insane that there isn't more pub for Jared Goff as MVP. He's not perfect. I'm not even saying he's one of the top 4 QB's in football (Mahomes, then Allen/Burrow/Jackson). But he's had the best season. He has the best story. Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Steve McNair, Rich Gannon and Kurt Warner weren't the best QB in the league but won MVP because they played at an incredibly elite level on great teams. I can't see why Goff doesn't deserve that same respect.
5. I must shout out Aaron Glenn, a man I have criticized often over the last four years. It was rough during the Buffalo and San Francisco games, but I thought he truly did an excellent job throughout the year and that game against Minnesota was the best defensive coaching job in 2024. To hold the Vikings to 262 total yards and shut down Jefferson & Addison was almost miraculous. People have forgotten how good the defense was playing before Hutchinson's injury and it was a top 5 defense by DVOA before the Buffalo game. Even with that terrible 4 game streak from Green Bay to San Fran, they finished 7th overall in defensive DVOA. He finally got the CB's he needed to run sticky man coverage and the right D-Line to be aggressive. His blitz packages were more exotic and he finally was willing to shade help towards true #1 WR's. Can he do it for 3 more games? We will see. But if he gets a head coaching job in 2025 he has earned it.
6. Some players that deserve some love that do not get the national headlines: Tim Patrick was found off the street and while the raw numbers aren't impressive, 23 of his 33 catches went for a 1st down or TD and he sprung multiple TD's with his blocking. Pat O'Connor isn't an impact player but he really deserves credit for the fight he brought in the interior and doing the dirty work. Interior linemen sometimes don't get credit on those blitzes eating blocks and he does it well. Trevor Nowaske did an admirable job filling in that SAM LB role for Derrick Barnes and did a good job getting to the QB on early downs. Brad Holmes let Jonah Jackson go and brought in Kevin Zeitler for $28M cheaper and played at a Pro Bowl level while Jackson got benched. Craig Reynolds continues to be a special teams ace and made important plays against Minnesota stepping in for Monty. Al-Quadin Muhammad didn't even play last year, was brought in off the practice squad and got 3 sacks with with an additional 4 TFL. Great, cheap signing by Holmes. Part of being a GM is finding depth for cheap and Holmes continues to master it.
7. They mocked us. Called us fools. Told us to give up. Told us he was a bust. But we believed in Jameson Williams. We were rewarded in 2024. He will never a true #1 guy like I was hoping in 2022 when he was drafted, but he was a difference maker in 2024. I think his impact is greater than his stats suggest. Because he's such an incredible deep ball/speed wideout, he opens up the middle of the field where Goff attacks with the inbreakers. Defenses have to keep two deep safeties because of how he stretches the field vertically and that also helps the Lions run game. He's not perfect and sometimes the drops come get him, but he has become a more complete receiver and is not afraid to make plays over the middle of the field. Plus he's a willing blocker and his energy ignites the offense. The decision to let Josh Reynolds go and trust Jameson Williams was the right decision.
8. I can't be all positive. Right now the biggest concern (besides Glenn/Johnson leaving in the same offseason) is the future of the OL. We know Penei Sewell is a future HOF and the best RT in football. He's 24 and signed long term, so no issues there. After that, there are questions on the remaining four spots. Fragnow was relatively healthy this year but we know about the toe injury and he's turning 29 next year. Taylor Decker got a new 3 year deal with $32M guaranteed and while I respect his game, he had his worst year in a while. Glasgow was not as effective in 2024 and he's 32. Kevin Zeitler was a beast but he's 35 and on a one year deal. Mahogany was a nice gem and should be a starter next year but the question is if Giovanni Manu can eventually prove himself. I trust Holmes but I would not be against drafting a lineman early in 2025. Even using a 1st rounder would not be the worst idea.
9. I just want to mention how much I love Amon-Ra St. Brown and what he means to this city. While AJ Brown tried to implode a team on a 10 game win streak, Tyreek Hill demanded a trade and JaMarr Chase kept complaining about his contract, here is the Sun God just doing everything you need. He lost 23 targets with 1 more game played and he never cared. He's a menace with his blocking despite being 5'10/200 and he is maybe the most clutch WR in the league considering what he does on first downs and in the red zone (85 1st downs or TD's on 114 catches this year). The Lions gave him a big contract and yes he deserved it with his play. But he also earned it with what he brings in the locker room and the fact he has a weekly podcast and never says anything controversial while being interesting is a minor miracle in 2025. He's cocky as hell and brings a major swagger to the offense all while doing the dirty work and never caring about his numbers. I should probably do more research, but I have to believe he's the best non 1st round pick the Lions have made in the Super Bowl era.
10. I said it last year, I will say it again. It astounds me that this franchise went from a dead duck with no hope and the franchise QB demanding a trade to the best team in the NFC the last two years (by record). In just 4 years Brad Holmes and company have built the current crown jewel of the NFC. They did all of this without drafting a franchise QB. They did this losing their best defensive player in Week 6. They did this with a head coach nationally mocked by the media. They did this the right way. The Detroit Lions are an astonishing 37-10 in their last 47 games, a 79% win percentage. They are the #1 seed in the NFC. A team will have to come into Detroit, currently the best home field advantage in the NFL, and beat the Lions in their den to deny them the franchise's first ever Super Bowl appearance. There is work to do, of course. The Eagles have the best RB on the planet and a defense that has gotten better every month. The Buccaneers have a defensive mastermind at HC with a QB that has no fear. The Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers were 0-4 against the Lions and would love nothing more than to ruin Detroit's season as revenge. The Washington Commanders want to show they are not just the new kids on the block. Besides his family, there is nothing Matthew Stafford and his Rams would love more than deny the Lions their first Super Bowl appearance. I had lost some faith after the McNeill and Davis injuries. But I felt like if the Lions got the #1 seed, nobody in the NFC can come into their building and outscore them. With how tough the defense played Sunday, I still believe that. Go make history gentlemen. Become immortal.
That was excellent Z. It’s funny reading your comments about Gibbs. I remember that night vividly and how upset you were as well as the media giving us a low grade for that pick.
Excellent write up and analysis zjc as always.1. If you want to make the case Andy Reid deserves to be coach of the year, I will listen to the argument. Besides him and Dan Campbell, nobody else can stake the claim as coach of the year. It's hilarious how often I have to hear what awesome coaches Kevin O'Connell and Matt LaFleur are (and they are very good head coaches) yet nobody brings up Dan is now an incredible 11-3 against them as Detroit's head coach. But they call plays and Dan doesn't so he won't get included as a genius head coach. He's a top 5 head coach in the league. His guys always come to play (the Lions were within one score of every game this year and have only lost by double digits twice in the last two years), their player development is fantastic, he hired two of the best coordinators in the league and his aggressiveness gives them a significant edge because the other team is petrified of trying to keep up. He made two tough 4th down decisions last night and it led to 14 points. He rallied his defense to shut down Minnesota and their top 5 offense. And his belief in Jared Goff has helped establish JG as a top 5 QB in the game right now. Like I said, I'll list to your case for Reid. Campbell is my coach of the year.
2. After Thursday night of the 2023 NFL draft, I was incensed. I could not believe that Brad Holmes used a premium pick (#6 overall) and turned it into a RB. Not only a RB, a 5'9 RB that wasn't even listed as RB1 in his class. I wrote that night "Brad Holmes just gave up a grand slam". And I was dead wrong. Jahmyr Gibbs is a top 5 RB in football and his ability to take it for 6 at any time just completely changes what the offense brings. He's a nightmare matchup in the pass game (what he did to Blake Cashman on the 4th down TD should be illegal) and when he gets outside he's damn near unstoppable. Because Detroit had the foresight to have two excellent RB's, the Lions had a fresh Gibbs the final 3 games when Montgomery went down. In the final 3 games, Jah had 25 touches per game for 162.4 yards and 6 TD's. 250 carries with a 5.65 YPC is insane and he had 20 TD's. He should be an All-Pro this year and Brad Holmes was not only able to get a superstar RB, he got a Pro Bowl caliber TE as well with the trade down. Genius work.
3. The 2024 draft class is Brad Holmes' worse and that's not even meant as an insult. This happens when you use draft capital for trades and signings, along with drafting later in rounds. Terrion Arnold's PFF grade sucks and I don't really care. He's a capable CB and while he will most likely never be a shutdown #1, having a more than capable CB like him on a rookie deal is a win. Ennis Rakestraw never was able to get off the ground. He only got 46 snaps on defense and battled injuries all year. That's tough. Giovanni Manu didn't play this year and was inactive for every game which nobody was surprised by. I still didn't like the pick but that was a 2026 pick, not a 2024 pick. Sione Vaki is fine, he's a great special teamers and for RB3 in mop up time didn't kill Detroit. We will see if he can improve next year. Mekhi Wingo played well in his limited role and provided solid depth on passing downs. Having him go to IR hurt the depth and hopefully he comes back healthy in 2025. Christian Mahogany is going to be a starting OG in this league. He played very well in the Chicago game and has a chance to be a starter in 2025. Overall, if Arnold/Mahogany/Wingo are solid contributors, I will take it.
4. Let's play a hypothetical. Let's say the Lions traded up and took Kenny Pickett (just bear with me). And let's say the Lions traded Jared Goff to some team needing a QB and was able to cobble up picks to take Jameson Williams. Now, let's say Kenny Pickett put up the same exact stats as Jared Goff in 2024. Wouldn't Kenny Pickett be the MVP favorite? Goff finished 2nd in completion percentage, 2nd in yards, 4th in passing TD's, 2nd in YPA, 2nd in passer rating and 2nd in AY/A. He led a moribund franchise that had not won a division title in 30 years to their second straight. He led his team to a 15 win regular season, only the 9th time in NFL history. And yet, it's all talk about Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. What am I missing? Because he played bad in a Super Bowl 6 years ago against the best defense in the NFL? Because he's not athletic? Because Sean McVay discarded him and McVay is a god so it was all Goff's fault? I just find it insane that there isn't more pub for Jared Goff as MVP. He's not perfect. I'm not even saying he's one of the top 4 QB's in football (Mahomes, then Allen/Burrow/Jackson). But he's had the best season. He has the best story. Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Steve McNair, Rich Gannon and Kurt Warner weren't the best QB in the league but won MVP because they played at an incredibly elite level on great teams. I can't see why Goff doesn't deserve that same respect.
5. I must shout out Aaron Glenn, a man I have criticized often over the last four years. It was rough during the Buffalo and San Francisco games, but I thought he truly did an excellent job throughout the year and that game against Minnesota was the best defensive coaching job in 2024. To hold the Vikings to 262 total yards and shut down Jefferson & Addison was almost miraculous. People have forgotten how good the defense was playing before Hutchinson's injury and it was a top 5 defense by DVOA before the Buffalo game. Even with that terrible 4 game streak from Green Bay to San Fran, they finished 7th overall in defensive DVOA. He finally got the CB's he needed to run sticky man coverage and the right D-Line to be aggressive. His blitz packages were more exotic and he finally was willing to shade help towards true #1 WR's. Can he do it for 3 more games? We will see. But if he gets a head coaching job in 2025 he has earned it.
6. Some players that deserve some love that do not get the national headlines: Tim Patrick was found off the street and while the raw numbers aren't impressive, 23 of his 33 catches went for a 1st down or TD and he sprung multiple TD's with his blocking. Pat O'Connor isn't an impact player but he really deserves credit for the fight he brought in the interior and doing the dirty work. Interior linemen sometimes don't get credit on those blitzes eating blocks and he does it well. Trevor Nowaske did an admirable job filling in that SAM LB role for Derrick Barnes and did a good job getting to the QB on early downs. Brad Holmes let Jonah Jackson go and brought in Kevin Zeitler for $28M cheaper and played at a Pro Bowl level while Jackson got benched. Craig Reynolds continues to be a special teams ace and made important plays against Minnesota stepping in for Monty. Al-Quadin Muhammad didn't even play last year, was brought in off the practice squad and got 3 sacks with with an additional 4 TFL. Great, cheap signing by Holmes. Part of being a GM is finding depth for cheap and Holmes continues to master it.
7. They mocked us. Called us fools. Told us to give up. Told us he was a bust. But we believed in Jameson Williams. We were rewarded in 2024. He will never a true #1 guy like I was hoping in 2022 when he was drafted, but he was a difference maker in 2024. I think his impact is greater than his stats suggest. Because he's such an incredible deep ball/speed wideout, he opens up the middle of the field where Goff attacks with the inbreakers. Defenses have to keep two deep safeties because of how he stretches the field vertically and that also helps the Lions run game. He's not perfect and sometimes the drops come get him, but he has become a more complete receiver and is not afraid to make plays over the middle of the field. Plus he's a willing blocker and his energy ignites the offense. The decision to let Josh Reynolds go and trust Jameson Williams was the right decision.
8. I can't be all positive. Right now the biggest concern (besides Glenn/Johnson leaving in the same offseason) is the future of the OL. We know Penei Sewell is a future HOF and the best RT in football. He's 24 and signed long term, so no issues there. After that, there are questions on the remaining four spots. Fragnow was relatively healthy this year but we know about the toe injury and he's turning 29 next year. Taylor Decker got a new 3 year deal with $32M guaranteed and while I respect his game, he had his worst year in a while. Glasgow was not as effective in 2024 and he's 32. Kevin Zeitler was a beast but he's 35 and on a one year deal. Mahogany was a nice gem and should be a starter next year but the question is if Giovanni Manu can eventually prove himself. I trust Holmes but I would not be against drafting a lineman early in 2025. Even using a 1st rounder would not be the worst idea.
9. I just want to mention how much I love Amon-Ra St. Brown and what he means to this city. While AJ Brown tried to implode a team on a 10 game win streak, Tyreek Hill demanded a trade and JaMarr Chase kept complaining about his contract, here is the Sun God just doing everything you need. He lost 23 targets with 1 more game played and he never cared. He's a menace with his blocking despite being 5'10/200 and he is maybe the most clutch WR in the league considering what he does on first downs and in the red zone (85 1st downs or TD's on 114 catches this year). The Lions gave him a big contract and yes he deserved it with his play. But he also earned it with what he brings in the locker room and the fact he has a weekly podcast and never says anything controversial while being interesting is a minor miracle in 2025. He's cocky as hell and brings a major swagger to the offense all while doing the dirty work and never caring about his numbers. I should probably do more research, but I have to believe he's the best non 1st round pick the Lions have made in the Super Bowl era.
10. I said it last year, I will say it again. It astounds me that this franchise went from a dead duck with no hope and the franchise QB demanding a trade to the best team in the NFC the last two years (by record). In just 4 years Brad Holmes and company have built the current crown jewel of the NFC. They did all of this without drafting a franchise QB. They did this losing their best defensive player in Week 6. They did this with a head coach nationally mocked by the media. They did this the right way. The Detroit Lions are an astonishing 37-10 in their last 47 games, a 79% win percentage. They are the #1 seed in the NFC. A team will have to come into Detroit, currently the best home field advantage in the NFL, and beat the Lions in their den to deny them the franchise's first ever Super Bowl appearance. There is work to do, of course. The Eagles have the best RB on the planet and a defense that has gotten better every month. The Buccaneers have a defensive mastermind at HC with a QB that has no fear. The Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers were 0-4 against the Lions and would love nothing more than to ruin Detroit's season as revenge. The Washington Commanders want to show they are not just the new kids on the block. Besides his family, there is nothing Matthew Stafford and his Rams would love more than deny the Lions their first Super Bowl appearance. I had lost some faith after the McNeill and Davis injuries. But I felt like if the Lions got the #1 seed, nobody in the NFC can come into their building and outscore them. With how tough the defense played Sunday, I still believe that. Go make history gentlemen. Become immortal.
It's been three years. Grades for the Lions 2021 Draft
R1, P7: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Grade: A+
Review: The Lions were able to grab a Hall of Fame talent at tackle, already a top 2 RT in football and top 5 overall OT in football and he's only 22. He's never missed a game due to injury. He's already a captain among a group of veterans and is maybe the most versatile OL in the league with what he does as a run blocker. He's basically everything you want in a franchise OT and Brad Holmes' first draft pick as Lions GM is a future HOF assuming Sewell stays healthy. And he gave up ZERO assets to do it. Other than MAYBE Micah Parsons, there isn't a player I would take over Sewell that went after him. Incredible work.
R2, P41: Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington
Grade: D
Review: Onwuzurike had talent and was very productive at Washington but slipped due to not playing in 2020 and concern over injury. That has become the story on him. He missed all of 2022 after undergoing back surgery and has only 2 TFL and 1 sack in his 25 career games. He was a huge miss, especially since I wanted Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who Cleveland took and has become an integral part of the Browns defense. Onwuzurike really is just a depth piece that gets maybe 10 snaps a game at most. Not sure Onwuzurike is on the team in 2024. Biggest miss of the draft by Holmes
R3, P72: Alim McNeill, DT, NC State
Grade: A
Review: Holmes was in best player available mode no matter position in 2021, so he took another DT. He hit with this one. McNeill was playing at a Pro Bowl rate before his injury and has become the best Lions DT since Suh left in 2014. The dropped weight made him a dangerous interior rusher as well, plus he has been a sound run stopper since day 1. He was an immediate starter and while the stats don't jump out, he's always graded well. This year he has 5 sacks and 6 TFL in 12 games in 2023. He's in competition with Nico Collins and Ben Cleveland as the best 3rd rounder in the 2021 draft. Awesome pick up by Brad Holmes.
R3, P101: Ifeatu Melifonwu, DB, Syracuse
Grade: B
Review: If this was done a month ago, this would have been a C-. No shame in a backup DB and solid special teams player at pick 101. But over the last month Melifonwu has shockingly turned into the best Lions DB after he took over for Tracy Walker at safety. He was incredibly raw, but an incredibly twitchy athlete with natural instincts. He's become a guy the Lions can build around with his excellent in the box skills from the safety position and has shown some natural playmaking as well. He also made the play to clinch the Lions the NFC North. He needs to sustain it, but Melifonwu is looking like a potential steal and valuable asset for Detroit.
R4, P112: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC
Grade: A+
Review: Oh this isn't a big deal or anything. Just drafting a top 10 WR and the best true slot WR in the NFL in the 4th round. St. Brown has caught 308 passes for 3,444 yards and 20 TD's in his short three year career and has become a first down merchant with 193 total first downs in his three year career. He a heady and tough run blocker that gives the Lions the versatility to line him up anywhere and has become a monster on 3rd down. Despite his size and lack of "burner" speed, he catches balls over the middle as well as anyone and has great YAC ability as well. A fantastic weapon and player that deserves a big contract in the offseason. Home run pick.
R4, P113: Derrick Barnes, LB, Purdue
Grade: B-
Review: Nothing incredibly fancy about this pick but still a solid contributor in year 4. Barnes was a lot like Melifonwu coming out, incredibly talented but incredibly raw. He's become an average LB for the Lions, not an everyday off ball LB but plays special teams well and is a solid run stopper. He's a decent pass rusher on the blitz (WHY DIDN"T YOU GET DAK FOR A SAFETY ARRRGGHHH) and if he is your third LB you're in solid shape. Not a special pick or anything, but a nice depth piece and a player you need. Cheap depth piece that can give you an occasional start that won't kill you. In order to build a complete team, you need a guy like Barners.
R7, P257: Jermar Jefferson, RB, Oregon State
Grade: C
Review: Basically a PS guy at this point, Jefferson has only played 7 games in his Lions career. He has only had 19 touches in his career and was basically a ST guy until Craig Reynolds was signed. It's a 7th rounder, there was maybe two guys in the 7th round that turned out to be anything in the 2021 draft. And it was the third to last pick in the draft. It's fine. He's still on the PS squad and seems like a fine locker room dude.