So, we’ve got the answers to our two main questions. Aaron Judge 2022 is clearly better than 2021 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. They’re comparable hitters, with Judge likely to have a slight advantage by year’s end, with the Yankee outfielder clearly having a substantial defensive/baserunning edge. And 2021 Shohei Ohtani is more valuable than 2022 Shohei Ohtani, with a much better offensive 2021 outweighing a slightly better pitching 2022 campaign.
Simply adding the TPRAA figures, as I stated earlier, doesn’t paint the entire picture. In 2021, Guerrero’s 65.0 slightly outdistanced Ohtani’s 62.2 (45.9 offensive + 16.3 pitching), but Ohtani’s unicorn status made him an easy #1 for me. This year, Judge’s 70.4 far outdistances Ohtani’s 37.7 (19.5 offensive + 18.2 pitching), and there’s no subjective adjustment that’s going to bridge that gap.