The Program....

#1
Ducreux

Ducreux

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#1
I'm a 1974 UTK grad...longtime season ticket holder in football, mens and womens bb...active in supporting both athletic and academic endeavors.....yet I think I'm objective and fair and not a homer...but that'ss not the question...not individuall sports teams or coaches rather where do you think our program stands....realistically..

As someone who has used data mining in business for years I understand trends....natural and predictable variation....highs and lows...of course I also understand that sometimes a process/business/athletic program changes and those changes are the new paradigm, a new 'center', a new reality....maybe not forever but much longer and different than normal variation...

So where do you think we are....not what do others think...not what do you 'hope' for...what do you think we are or will soon become? For the purpose of this discussion it might be able to analyze the individual sport, IE football rather than the entire program:

A are we a middle of the pack football team/program....a 500 team who will often flirt with winning seasons

B are we headed to the lower 3rd of the pack....

C are we headed back to the top third where we have traditionally been

D are we going to the top.....year in and year out # 1 or 2 in the conference...
 
#2
#2
Ducreux said:
I'm a 1974 UTK grad...longtime season ticket holder in football, mens and womens bb...active in supporting both athletic and academic endeavors.....yet I think I'm objective and fair and not a homer...but that'ss not the question...not individuall sports teams or coaches rather where do you think our program stands....realistically..

As someone who has used data mining in business for years I understand trends....natural and predictable variation....highs and lows...of course I also understand that sometimes a process/business/athletic program changes and those changes are the new paradigm, a new 'center', a new reality....maybe not forever but much longer and different than normal variation...

So where do you think we are....not what do others think...not what do you 'hope' for...what do you think we are or will soon become? For the purpose of this discussion it might be able to analyze the individual sport, IE football rather than the entire program:

A are we a middle of the pack football team/program....a 500 team who will often flirt with winning seasons

B are we headed to the lower 3rd of the pack....

C are we headed back to the top third where we have traditionally been

D are we going to the top.....year in and year out # 1 or 2 in the conference...
Click to expand...

Objectively, if you used some of the analytics you described in the second paragraph, or even a simple win/loss chart, with a trend line, we're in the option b

We haven't won more than 8 games in 6 years
 
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#5
#5
vol_in_ar said:
Objectively, if you used some of the analytics you described in the second paragraph, or even a simple win/loss chart, with a trend line, we're in the option b

We haven't won more than 8 games in 6 years
Click to expand...

Rebuilding with 4 coaches in 5 us will do that. Especially if you make the wrong hire.

With Butch I'd say definitely C...hopefully D
 
#6
#6
Its cyclical. Believe it or not, there was a time in the late 90s and early 2000s that Bama and LSU were very average. In fact, there was a stretch in the 90s where LSU was downright bad. As were powerhouses USC and Oklahoma. Nebraska was dominant then, and now they are only slightly above average. So, to answer your question, we are in a down cycle and are at best an average to bad football team. But we've been that way for about as long as those teams mentioned above were bad in the 90s, so I believe our time has come to trend back up. By 2015 I think we will start to be a conference contender year in year out. Jmo.
 
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#8
#8
I'd go with C.

As someone already mentioned, college football is cyclical. Oklahoma was terrible in the 90's and USC struggled as well. Then both became powerhouses again in the 00's.

But there's also long-term changes, as well. LSU has become a dominant power, but traditionally (i.e. before mid 90's), was probably not considered to be within the top third of SEC programs. Perception-wise, LSU was probably behind Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, and Georgia. Certainly that's changed now, and I don't expect LSU to fall into the middle-pack any time soon; particularly with their strong recruiting base.

Demographic trends have certainly helped many SEC schools, with Florida being the biggest winner, while Georgia and LSU have also seen major benefits (the latter has benefited from Texas' growth). I think Tennessee is starting to see some of those demographic benefits, as well.

In spite of the negative perception by many, I don't expect UT to stay in the bottom third of the SEC. While there might be some homerism involved in that opinion, I also think that objectively, it's difficult to compete with what UT offers: an immense fanbase that is extremely passionate about the school's athletic programs.

Ultimately, that fan support is what brings in huge dollars and drives the program. We've had a few bad coaching hires (Kiffin and Dooley), but UT has the resources to attract the best coaches, build the best facilities, and bring in the best players. For that reason, and also due to the progress Butch Jones has made, I think we'll be in the top third of the SEC again.
 
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#9
#9
A little off topic but Michigan seems to be in a similar pattern. We fell near the same time and got rid of a long time coach. They have had better records over the last few years, but I bet their fan base is similarly disappointed that they are not beating their rivals most years. Michigan state, ohio state, ND.
 
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#10
#10
We have been B last 4 years...we are on the cusp of C for the next 2-3... Then we will be entering into D for the next 15 after that, until Butch decides to retire. (they are already designing the statue just to have it ready)
 
#14
#14
Answer: C

Hopefully, in 2015, that will be the season we begin our climb into the upper echelon of the conference, where we belong, and everyone (fans and other teams) begin to sense that UT is back. Of course, the goal/dream is being the Answer: D soon after.

This 2014 class is verry big and is going to add some seriously talented players to the team. Players we've been lacking and have to have to really make some noise in the SEC. If our recruiting stays like this and with wins, is also a little better, we'll be Answer: D sooner rather than later in no time. Like CBJ said, it all falls on recruiting and so far recruiring is looking good. Great to be a Tennessee Vol!!
 
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#15
#15
During UT's great run from '89-2001, there were several SEC teams that were trainwrecks (like UT is now). UGA, Bama, LSU, South Carolina were all unsteady and UT's only thorn in the side was UF.

Now, UGA, Bama, LSU, and South Carolina (not to mention Auburn) have all steadied their ships.

UT's rise to top (if it happens) will be extremely difficult due to how these other teams have upped their games. Not to mention adding aTm and Mizzou to the mix.

I hate to say it but UT may be stuck between B & C for a while.
 
#16
#16
Ducreux said:
I'm a 1974 UTK grad...longtime season ticket holder in football, mens and womens bb...active in supporting both athletic and academic endeavors.....yet I think I'm objective and fair and not a homer...but that'ss not the question...not individuall sports teams or coaches rather where do you think our program stands....realistically..

As someone who has used data mining in business for years I understand trends....natural and predictable variation....highs and lows...of course I also understand that sometimes a process/business/athletic program changes and those changes are the new paradigm, a new 'center', a new reality....maybe not forever but much longer and different than normal variation...

So where do you think we are....not what do others think...not what do you 'hope' for...what do you think we are or will soon become? For the purpose of this discussion it might be able to analyze the individual sport, IE football rather than the entire program:

A are we a middle of the pack football team/program....a 500 team who will often flirt with winning seasons

B are we headed to the lower 3rd of the pack....

C are we headed back to the top third where we have traditionally been

D are we going to the top.....year in and year out # 1 or 2 in the conference...
Click to expand...

We are currently a. But we will get to c as we continue to recruit. And we have the potential to reach d, but to get to d has a lot to do more thank what meets the eye. It has to do with the uppers in the program. Those above the AD. They have to be onboard and realize we are an athletics program, we are not a vandy (meaning the standards shouldn't be that high, as some push for). I agree that education is great, but everything is balance and tennessee always had that balance until changes started happening. I truly believe though that d will happen if the uppers give butch a green light in the program. It seems so far they are.
 
#17
#17
VFL34 said:
We are currently a. But we will get to c as we continue to recruit. And we have the potential to reach d, but to get to d has a lot to do more thank what meets the eye. It has to do with the uppers in the program. Those above the AD. They have to be onboard and realize we are an athletics program, we are not a vandy (meaning the standards shouldn't be that high, as some push for). I agree that education is great, but everything is balance and tennessee always had that balance until changes started happening. I truly believe though that d will happen if the uppers give butch a green light in the program. It seems so far they are.
Click to expand...

Green light meaning power and control much like nick Saban has.
 
#18
#18
As of right now we are Grade A hoping for better days. By 2015 Butch and CO. need to be competing for the east, which should be expected.
 
#19
#19
We are at A. Hopefully headed for C. If CBJ can coach and hire good coordinators, then we may get to D. C is where I think we are headed with the current staff and D all depends on CBJ coaching ability and hiring.
 
#20
#20
Ducreux said:
I'm a 1974 UTK grad...longtime season ticket holder in football, mens and womens bb...active in supporting both athletic and academic endeavors.....yet I think I'm objective and fair and not a homer...but that'ss not the question...not individuall sports teams or coaches rather where do you think our program stands....realistically..

As someone who has used data mining in business for years I understand trends....natural and predictable variation....highs and lows...of course I also understand that sometimes a process/business/athletic program changes and those changes are the new paradigm, a new 'center', a new reality....maybe not forever but much longer and different than normal variation...

So where do you think we are....not what do others think...not what do you 'hope' for...what do you think we are or will soon become? For the purpose of this discussion it might be able to analyze the individual sport, IE football rather than the entire program:

A are we a middle of the pack football team/program....a 500 team who will often flirt with winning seasons

B are we headed to the lower 3rd of the pack....

C are we headed back to the top third where we have traditionally been

D are we going to the top.....year in and year out # 1 or 2 in the conference...
Click to expand...

A and B are basically the same except for direction. We have been there for several years no dispute. There is no where to go but up.

We have already completed B and A. 5+ years is long enough to dwell in the cellar. Turn over is a killer. Once we get stable then on to C and D.

The timeline is the big question A and B should be checked off because we are there. we are moving to C in the next few years probably a bowl game next year which would turn the corner. We were close an upset win over USC a near miss with GA, Had it not been early in the season we beat FL, and with Worley we beat Vandy.

Losses to Oregon, AL, Mo and Auburn are no brainers.
 
#21
#21
Ducreux said:
I'm a 1974 UTK grad...longtime season ticket holder in football, mens and womens bb...active in supporting both athletic and academic endeavors.....yet I think I'm objective and fair and not a homer...but that'ss not the question...not individuall sports teams or coaches rather where do you think our program stands....realistically..

As someone who has used data mining in business for years I understand trends....natural and predictable variation....highs and lows...of course I also understand that sometimes a process/business/athletic program changes and those changes are the new paradigm, a new 'center', a new reality....maybe not forever but much longer and different than normal variation...

So where do you think we are....not what do others think...not what do you 'hope' for...what do you think we are or will soon become? For the purpose of this discussion it might be able to analyze the individual sport, IE football rather than the entire program:

A are we a middle of the pack football team/program....a 500 team who will often flirt with winning seasons

B are we headed to the lower 3rd of the pack....

C are we headed back to the top third where we have traditionally been

D are we going to the top.....year in and year out # 1 or 2 in the conference...
Click to expand...

Over the last four seasons, the football team is a combined 21-28. During all four of these seasons the team finished with a losing record. By definition, it is not a .500 program. Hopefully brighter days are ahead.
 
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#22
#22
Technically none of the above . We aren't headed to the lower third of the pack . We are smack dab in the middle of the lower third . Hopefully next year shows some improvement nd a bowl game as we begin to move towards c
 
#24
#24
fade route said:
Its cyclical. Believe it or not, there was a time in the late 90s and early 2000s that Bama and LSU were very average. In fact, there was a stretch in the 90s where LSU was downright bad. As were powerhouses USC and Oklahoma. Nebraska was dominant then, and now they are only slightly above average. So, to answer your question, we are in a down cycle and are at best an average to bad football team. But we've been that way for about as long as those teams mentioned above were bad in the 90s, so I believe our time has come to trend back up. By 2015 I think we will start to be a conference contender year in year out. Jmo.
Click to expand...

Respectfully this isn't cyclical...there IS variation in everything, as there is in the many 'processes' that comprises wins and loses but its not cyclical....but without a plan and hard work your performance or results will remain somewhat the same...with normal arriation and of course on occasion there will be a 'special cause' introduced and you should determine its source regardless if it has a positive or negative effect......such as ...in manufacturing a new supplier of a material or a new operator, in football a new coach....

Now with that new operator or new coach you also change the way you train.....and then the way you prepare your equipment/team....etc, then you can begin to change/move your center/paradigm/average....


Heres an example...you go out in your driveway and shoot 100 free throws and you hit 35 of them...

Now you start to work to improve...you shoot hundreds, thousands, still doing and you get that 35 up to 60..some days its 50, others its 70, but generally its around 60 and averages 60..

Then you read a book on shooting free throws...you get a coach....you read motivational material, you hire a personal trainer and lastly you join a gym where the conditions are much better and continue to shoot hundreds, thousands of shots a day and now your average 75 out of a hundred....you've probably reduced the variation too, IE sometimes you shoot 80 and others 70 but more often than not you're around 75....you've changed your average, paradigm, your reality.
 
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