I can honestly see Texas going the NFL route to get their next coach. Saban has never had it better at Alabama and Texas, at this point, would be a move down for him. Muschamp just played in a BCS bowl and can have a top 10 recruiting class in his sleep at UF, so the Texas job would really just be a lateral move. It would have to be some serious cash to get him to leave UF. And what would Texas be getting? You don't know if Muschamp can win championships so a huge payday would be risky. Patterson would make more sense eventhough he has a pretty decent job at TCU without the expectations that would be placed on him at Texas.
USC is kind of in the same position, but would have a better chance of landing a higher tier coach due to their location and tradition. I could see Saban taking the opportunity ($$$$) to coach at one of the most storied programs in all of college football. He's pretty much accomplished everything he can at Alabama.
Gruden was wise to pass on UT. Let's face it Texas and USC are much, much better jobs at the moment where the opportunity to win now is very apparent. Lots of options out there if he isn't dead set on coaching in the NFL again.